Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2015 NFL season on 2016-01-03, the Carolina Panthers took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 38–10 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with -5.60 total EPA, and +0.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Funchess (Carolina Panthers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.34 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-11.2% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed the game: (8:46) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 11-A.Humphries INTERCEPTED by 58-T.Davis at CAR 32. 58-T.Davis to TB 46 for 22 yards (88-L.Stocker).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Funchess · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +7.34 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.92 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Newton · Carolina Panthers · Passing · +6.97 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Cotchery · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +4.99 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.49 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +4.01 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Brown · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +3.38 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.56 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Tolbert · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +2.71 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Newton · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +2.70 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Martin · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.56 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Carolina Panthers — C. Newton (Q2 42:42)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Artis-Payne (Q2 34:23)
• Carolina Panthers — J. Cotchery (C. Newton pass) (Q2 32:00)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Newton (Q3 24:21)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — J. Winston (Q3 19:53)
• Carolina Panthers — D. Funchess (C. Newton pass) (Q4 7:29)

Field goals

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Barth (Q1 46:32)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q2 39:29)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 3–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the CAR 21 (Q1 46:32) — (1:32) 10-C.Barth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum..

The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 24–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 1 (Q2 42:42) — (12:42) 1-C.Newton right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Daryl Williams reports as eligible; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 42:35) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the CAR 35 (Q2 39:29) — 9-G.Gano kicks 65 yards from CAR 35 to end zone, Touchback.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 11 (Q2 34:23) — (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-C.Artis-Payne right tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 34:17) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 31 (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 82-J.Cotchery for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 20 (Q2 31:52) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 1 (Q3 24:21) — (9:21) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q3 24:18) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 4 (Q3 19:53) — (4:53) (No Huddle) 3-J.Winston left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q3 19:45).

The fourth quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 16 (Q4 7:29) — (7:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q4 7:22) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 38:46) — (8:46) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 11-A.Humphries INTERCEPTED by 58-T.Davis at CAR 32. 58-T.Davis to TB 46 for 22 yards (88-L.Stocker). [WPA -11.2% · EPA -5.34]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 41:03) — (11:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 17-D.Funchess to TB 31 for 41 yards (27-J.Banks). Pass was tipped by 31 Bradley McDougald at the Panther 40 [WPA +10.4% · EPA +3.36]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 48:21) — (3:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess to CAR 46 for 8 yards (21-A.Verner) [93-G.McCoy]. FUMBLES (21-A.Verner), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at CAR 45. 54-L.David to CAR [WPA -10.3% · EPA -4.38]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 55:26) — (10:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at TB 32 for -10 yards (54-L.David). [WPA -7.1% · EPA -1.64]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 56:35) — (11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen ran ob at TB 23 for 10 yards. [WPA +6.6% · EPA +1.50]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q3 25:17) — (10:17) 8-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to TB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 43-B.Rainey to TB 22 for 5 yards (21-T.Williams). FUMBLES (21-T.Williams), RECOVERED by CAR-14-J.Webb at TB 17. 14-J.Webb to TB 3 for 1 [WPA +2.3% · EPA +6.93]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 13:36) — (13:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 84-C.Brate INTERCEPTED by 27-R.McClain at CAR 19. 27-R.McClain to CAR 43 for 24 yards (22-D.Martin). [WPA -1.4% · EPA -5.52]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 38:46) — (8:46) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 11-A.Humphries INTERCEPTED by 58-T.Davis at CAR 32. 58-T.Davis to TB 46 for 22 yards (88-L.Stocker). [WPA -11.2% · EPA -5.34]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 48:21) — (3:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess to CAR 46 for 8 yards (21-A.Verner) [93-G.McCoy]. FUMBLES (21-A.Verner), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at CAR 45. 54-L.David to CAR [WPA -10.3% · EPA -4.38]

Quarterback report card

J.Winston led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 54 dropbacks · 53.7% completion · +0.4% CPOE · -0.10 EPA/play · -5.60 total EPA
• C.Newton (Carolina Panthers) · 32 dropbacks · 65.6% completion · +19.6% CPOE · +0.22 EPA/play · +6.97 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Carolina Panthers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.25 vs -0.11), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Carolina Panthers: 11 drives, +19.76 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10 drives, -9.81 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Carolina Panthers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Funchess (Carolina Panthers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Newton (CAR) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q1 46:32 · CAR 21 · Score 3-0
   (1:32) 10-C.Barth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.
2. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 42:42 · TB 1 · Score 3-6
   (12:42) 1-C.Newton right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Daryl Williams reports as eligible
3. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 42:35 · TB 15 · Score 3-7
   9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
4. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 39:29 · CAR 35 · Score 3-10
   9-G.Gano kicks 65 yards from CAR 35 to end zone, Touchback.
5. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 34:23 · TB 11 · Score 3-16
   (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-C.Artis-Payne right tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 34:17 · TB 15 · Score 3-17
   9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
7. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 32:00 · TB 31 · Score 3-23
   (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 82-J.Cotchery for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 31:52 · TB 20 · Score 3-24
   9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
9. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q3 24:21 · TB 1 · Score 3-30
   (9:21) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q3 24:18 · TB 15 · Score 3-31
    9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 19:53 · CAR 4 · Score 9-31
    (4:53) (No Huddle) 3-J.Winston left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 19:45 · CAR 15 · Score 10-31
    10-C.Barth extra point is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Norman, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
13. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 7:29 · TB 16 · Score 10-37
    (7:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 7:22 · TB 15 · Score 10-38
    9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.