New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-17, the Carolina Panthers took care of business against the New Orleans Saints, pulling away with a 23–20 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) paced the passing game, with +3.10 total EPA, and +8.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, B. Cooks (New Orleans Saints) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +4.05 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+14.5% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New Orleans Saints changed the game: (2:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 82-C.Fleener for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Cooks · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +4.05 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.51 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Ginn · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +3.69 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.92 EPA/play
3. 3 K. Benjamin · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +3.15 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Brees · New Orleans Saints · Passing · +3.10 total EPA · 50 snaps · +0.06 EPA/play
5. 5 G. Olsen · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +2.72 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Ingram · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +2.40 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Hightower · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +2.38 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Thomas · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.93 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Carolina Panthers — J. Stewart (Q2 35:43)
• Carolina Panthers — T. Ginn (C. Newton pass) (Q2 30:23)
• New Orleans Saints — B. Coleman (D. Brees pass) (Q4 11:27)
• New Orleans Saints — C. Fleener (D. Brees pass) (Q4 2:56)

Field goals

• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q1 53:34)
• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q1 45:40)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q2 32:55)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q3 23:23)
• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q4 15:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 14 (Q1 53:34) — (8:34) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the CAR 9 (Q1 45:40) — (:40) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 17–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 1 (Q2 35:43) — (5:43) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q2 35:40) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 32 (Q2 32:55) — (2:55) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 40 (Q2 30:23); Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q2 30:16) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy..

The third quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 3–0. Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 24 (Q3 23:23) — (8:23) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy..

The fourth quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 17–0. New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the CAR 12 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 9 (Q4 11:27) — (11:27) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 16-B.Coleman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 11:22) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 8 (Q4 2:56) — (2:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 82-C.Fleener for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 2:52) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New Orleans Saints (Q4 2:56) — (2:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 82-C.Fleener for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.5% · EPA +3.27]
• New Orleans Saints (Q4 0:02) — (:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to CAR 43 for 21 yards (26-D.Worley; 58-T.Davis). [WPA -11.8% · EPA -0.05]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 39:31) — (9:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right intended for 82-C.Fleener INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman at NO 46. 20-K.Coleman to NO 34 for 12 yards (75-A.Peat). [WPA -11.2% · EPA -4.38]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 58:23) — (13:23) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 32 for -7 yards (97-M.Addison). FUMBLES (97-M.Addison) [97-M.Addison], RECOVERED by CAR-97-M.Addison at NO 32. 97-M.Addison to NO 32 for no gain (9-D.Brees). [WPA -10.4% · EPA -4.39]
• New Orleans Saints (Q4 3:43) — (3:43) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-64-Z.Strief, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 3 - No Play. [WPA -9.2% · EPA -0.96]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:23) — (:23) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep middle to 19-T.Ginn [90-N.Fairley]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep m [WPA +3.0% · EPA +5.05]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 30:39) — (:39) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-V.Butler), Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by CAR-59-L.Kuechly at CAR 12. 59-L.Kuechly for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalt [WPA -7.9% · EPA -4.52]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 58:23) — (13:23) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 32 for -7 yards (97-M.Addison). FUMBLES (97-M.Addison) [97-M.Addison], RECOVERED by CAR-97-M.Addison at NO 32. 97-M.Addison to NO 32 for no gain (9-D.Brees). [WPA -10.4% · EPA -4.39]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 39:31) — (9:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right intended for 82-C.Fleener INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman at NO 46. 20-K.Coleman to NO 34 for 12 yards (75-A.Peat). [WPA -11.2% · EPA -4.38]

Quarterback report card

D.Brees led all passers in efficiency for New Orleans Saints, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Brees (New Orleans Saints) · 50 dropbacks · 70.0% completion · +8.6% CPOE · +0.06 EPA/play · +3.10 total EPA
• C.Newton (Carolina Panthers) · 35 dropbacks · 40.0% completion · -14.3% CPOE · -0.06 EPA/play · -2.02 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New Orleans Saints -0.04, Carolina Panthers -0.03) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Carolina Panthers: 11 drives, -2.78 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 12 drives, -3.90 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Carolina Panthers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• B. Cooks (New Orleans Saints) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Brees (NO) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• C. Newton (CAR) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q1 53:34 · NO 14 · Score 0-3
   (8:34) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
2. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q1 45:40 · CAR 9 · Score 3-3
   (:40) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
3. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 35:43 · NO 1 · Score 3-9
   (5:43) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 35:40 · NO 15 · Score 3-10
   9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
5. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 32:55 · NO 32 · Score 3-13
   (2:55) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
6. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 30:23 · NO 40 · Score 3-19
   (:23) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep middle to 19-T.Ginn [90-N.Fairley]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was RE
7. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 30:16 · NO 15 · Score 3-20
   9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
8. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q3 23:23 · NO 24 · Score 3-23
   (8:23) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
9. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q4 15:00 · CAR 12 · Score 6-23
   (15:00) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
10. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 11:27 · CAR 9 · Score 12-23
    (11:27) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 16-B.Coleman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 11:22 · CAR 15 · Score 13-23
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
12. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 2:56 · CAR 8 · Score 19-23
    (2:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 82-C.Fleener for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 2:52 · CAR 15 · Score 20-23
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.