Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-20, the Detroit Lions took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 26–19 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with -0.94 total EPA, and -1.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, C. Ivory (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.67 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+28.7% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Detroit Lions changed the game: (11:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 85-E.Ebron pushed ob at JAX 8 for 61 yards (37-J.Cyprien).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 C. Ivory · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +5.67 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.94 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Stafford · Detroit Lions · Passing · +3.18 total EPA · 37 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Roberts · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +3.07 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.07 EPA/play
4. 4 E. Ebron · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +3.00 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Riddick · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +2.89 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Robinson · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +1.48 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
7. 7 G. Tate · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +1.45 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Jones · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +1.08 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Detroit Lions — A. Roberts (Q2 41:31)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — A. Robinson (B. Bortles pass) (Q2 32:49)
• Detroit Lions — R. Bush (Q3 29:16)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Lee (B. Bortles pass) (Q3 17:16)
• Detroit Lions — E. Ebron (Q4 10:08)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Myers (Q1 46:39)
• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q2 30:23)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Myers (Q3 24:25)
• Detroit Lions — M. Prater (Q4 0:26)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 3–0. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the DET 9 (Q1 46:39) — (1:39) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman..

The second quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 9–6. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the DET 92 (Q2 41:31) — (11:31) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to DET 45, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-A.Roberts for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the DET 3 (Q2 32:49) — (2:49) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-H.Ngata].; Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the JAX 8 (Q2 30:23) — (:23) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 10–7. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the DET 72 (Q3 29:16); Detroit Lions added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q3 29:02) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the DET 34 (Q3 24:25) — (9:25) 2-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the DET 3 (Q3 17:16) — (2:16) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 11-M.Lee for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q3 17:10) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman..

The fourth quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 10–0. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q4 10:08) — (10:08) 85-E.Ebron right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 10:03) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the JAX 25 (Q4 0:26).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Detroit Lions (Q4 11:23) — (11:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 85-E.Ebron pushed ob at JAX 8 for 61 yards (37-J.Cyprien). [WPA +28.7% · EPA +5.27]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 15:44) — (:44) 15-G.Tate left end to JAX 27 for 1 yard (75-J.Odrick). FUMBLES (75-J.Odrick), RECOVERED by JAX-50-T.Smith at JAX 34. 50-T.Smith to JAX 34 for no gain (68-T.Decker). [WPA -24.0% · EPA -5.82]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 16:30) — (1:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 12-A.Roberts to JAX 28 for 44 yards (51-P.Posluszny). [WPA +17.0% · EPA +3.07]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 29:16) — (14:16) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 11-M.Lee INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Bush (24-N.Lawson) at JAX 39. 31-R.Bush for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -16.6% · EPA -6.70]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 41:31) — (11:31) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to DET 45, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-A.Roberts for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -16.0% · EPA -4.36]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 29:16) — (14:16) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 11-M.Lee INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Bush (24-N.Lawson) at JAX 39. 31-R.Bush for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -16.6% · EPA -6.70]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 15:44) — (:44) 15-G.Tate left end to JAX 27 for 1 yard (75-J.Odrick). FUMBLES (75-J.Odrick), RECOVERED by JAX-50-T.Smith at JAX 34. 50-T.Smith to JAX 34 for no gain (68-T.Decker). [WPA -24.0% · EPA -5.82]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 47:45) — (2:45) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to DET 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, touched at DET 12, RECOVERED by JAX-83-B.Koyack at DET 11. 83-B.Koyack to DET 11 for no gain (52-A.Williams). [WPA +15.4% · EPA +5.81]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 11:23) — (11:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 85-E.Ebron pushed ob at JAX 8 for 61 yards (37-J.Cyprien). [WPA +28.7% · EPA +5.27]

Quarterback report card

B.Bortles led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 38 dropbacks · 57.9% completion · -1.4% CPOE · -0.02 EPA/play · -0.94 total EPA
• M.Stafford (Detroit Lions) · 37 dropbacks · 64.9% completion · -0.2% CPOE · +0.09 EPA/play · +3.18 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Jacksonville Jaguars -0.16, Detroit Lions -0.13) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Detroit Lions: 13 drives, -9.98 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 14 drives, -13.37 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Detroit Lions leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• C. Ivory (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q1 46:39 · DET 9 · Score 3-0
   (1:39) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
2. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q2 41:31 · DET 92 · Score 3-6
   (11:31) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to DET 45, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-A.Roberts for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 32:49 · DET 3 · Score 9-6
   (2:49) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-H.Ngata].
4. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q2 30:23 · JAX 8 · Score 9-9
   (:23) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
5. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q3 29:16 · DET 72 · Score 9-15
   (14:16) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 11-M.Lee INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Bush (24-N.Lawson) at JAX 39. 31-R.Bush for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q3 29:02 · JAX 15 · Score 9-16
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q3 24:25 · DET 34 · Score 12-16
   (9:25) 2-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 17:16 · DET 3 · Score 18-16
   (2:16) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 11-M.Lee for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 17:10 · DET 15 · Score 19-16
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
10. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 10:08 · JAX 1 · Score 19-22
    (10:08) 85-E.Ebron right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q4 10:03 · JAX 15 · Score 19-23
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
12. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q4 0:26 · JAX 25 · Score 19-26
    (:26) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. Penalty on JAX-20-J.Ramsey, Illegal Formation, declined.