Quick answer
- Winner
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Final score
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16–14 Carolina Panthers
- Halftime
- Carolina Panthers 7–13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at halftime
- FantasyHQ MVP
- Baker Mayfield
- Top passer
- Byron Young
- Biggest EPA play
- (11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB …
- Game date
- 2026-01-03
Game summary
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Carolina Panthers 16–14 on 2026-01-03. Baker Mayfield posted a game-high +10.16 total EPA in the passing.
The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 10 combined points.
Line score
Final score and points by quarter.
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | — | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | |
| 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
Stars of the game
Top performers by total expected points added (EPA).
- 1

Baker Mayfield · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +10.16 total EPA · 29 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play - 2

Byron Young · Carolina Panthers · Passing · +5.64 total EPA · 36 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play - 3

Tetairoa McMillan · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +4.46 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.74 EPA/play - 4

Cade Otton · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +4.10 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play - 5

Tommy Tremble · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +4.01 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.00 EPA/play - 6

Mitchell Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +3.22 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.61 EPA/play - 7

Ricky White III · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.11 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play - 8

Jalen McMillan · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +1.78 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.78 EPA/play
FantasyHQ Game MVP
Highest total EPA with the player's top snap and the game's biggest single play when different.

FantasyHQ Game MVP
Baker Mayfield — TB · Passing
Baker Mayfield posted the highest total EPA (+10.16) in the game, the strongest overall impact for Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Across 29 counted snaps, they averaged +0.35 EPA per play.
Baker Mayfield's top snap (-4.27 EPA): (12:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 56-C.Rozeboom at TB 39. 56-C.Rozeboom to TB 19 for 20 yards (13-M.Evans).
Biggest single play (-5.99 EPA): Rico Dowdle — (11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
Quarterback report card
Byron Young led all passers in efficiency for Carolina Panthers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

Byron Young (Carolina Panthers) · 36 dropbacks · 66.7% completion · +11.3% CPOE · +0.16 EPA/play · +5.64 total EPA
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 29 dropbacks · 55.2% completion · +5.5% CPOE · +0.35 EPA/play · +10.16 total EPA
Team stats comparison
Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency.
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| Offensive EPA/play | -0.054 | -0.022 |
| Offensive success rate | 46.2% | 46.3% |
| Pass EPA/play | +0.157 | +0.350 |
| Rush EPA/play | -0.568 | -0.235 |
| Defensive EPA/play | +0.022 | +0.054 |
| Defensive success rate | 53.7% | 53.8% |
Drive & efficiency notes
Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Carolina Panthers -0.05, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.02) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.
Season benchmark context (offensive EPA per play):
- Carolina Panthers: -0.05 EPA/play (34th percentile vs. 2025 team-game averages)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -0.02 EPA/play (41st percentile vs. 2025 team-game averages)
- Carolina Panthers: 10 drives, -3.48 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10 drives, -1.80 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
Who scored touchdowns and field goals
Every touchdown and field goal from official play-by-play.
Touchdowns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Cade Otton (Baker Mayfield pass) 
Carolina Panthers — Tommy Tremble (Byron Young pass) 
Carolina Panthers — Jalen Coker (Byron Young pass)
Field goals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Chase McLaughlin 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Chase McLaughlin 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Rico Dowdle 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Chase McLaughlin
Quarter by quarter
Quarter-by-quarter recap from live scoring plays.
The opening quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 10–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 18 (Q1 9:35) — (9:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q1 9:31) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the CAR 11 (Q1 2:01) — (2:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon..
The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–3. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 8 (Q2 10:56) — (10:56) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 10:50) — 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the CAR 18 (Q2 0:05) — (:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on CAR, Illegal Formation, declined..
The third quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 3–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the TB 65 (Q3 15:00) — (15:00) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 39 for 4 yards (54-L.David; 0-Y.Diaby)..
The fourth quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the CAR 30 (Q4 14:17) — (14:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 8 (Q4 2:31) — (2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q4 2:27) — 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin..
Turning points
Plays that moved win probability the most.
- Carolina Panthers (Q4 11:15) — (11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
- Carolina Panthers (Q4 0:03) — (:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 34 for 13 yards. Lateral to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at CAR 35, RECOVERED by TB-21-B.Morrison at CAR 33.
- Carolina Panthers (Q4 3:10) — (3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).
- Carolina Panthers (Q2 1:56) — (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 42. 25-J.Parrish ran ob at TB 42 for no gain.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 12:28) — (12:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 56-C.Rozeboom at TB 39. 56-C.Rozeboom to TB 19 for 20 yards (13-M.Evans).
Impact plays
Highest EPA snaps that flipped field position.
- Carolina Panthers (Q4 11:15) — (11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
- Carolina Panthers (Q4 3:10) — (3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 12:28) — (12:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 56-C.Rozeboom at TB 39. 56-C.Rozeboom to TB 19 for 20 yards (13-M.Evans).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 5:18) — (5:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-C.Jackson), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Every scoring play
Chronological scoring with play-by-play context.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q1 9:35 · CAR 18 · Score 0-6
(9:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q1 9:31 · CAR 15 · Score 0-7
4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q1 2:01 · CAR 11 · Score 0-10
(2:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 10:56 · TB 8 · Score 6-10
(10:56) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 10:50 · TB 15 · Score 7-10
10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q2 0:05 · CAR 18 · Score 7-13
(:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on CAR, Illegal Formation, declined.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q3 15:00 · TB 65 · Score 7-13
(15:00) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 39 for 4 yards (54-L.David; 0-Y.Diaby).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q4 14:17 · CAR 30 · Score 7-16
(14:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 2:31 · TB 8 · Score 13-16
(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 2:27 · TB 15 · Score 14-16
10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Key takeaways
What to remember for fantasy research and follow-up box score digging.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers earned the result — use the box score for snap-level context.
- One-score margin — verify garbage-time stats before drawing fantasy conclusions.
- Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) led total EPA — start here for highlight and prop research.
- Byron Young (CAR) finished above expected through the air (positive CPOE).
Frequently asked questions
Who won Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 2026-01-03?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Carolina Panthers 16-14 in Week 18, 2025.
What was the score by quarter in Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Q1: Carolina Panthers 0, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10; Q2: Carolina Panthers 7, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3; Q3: Carolina Panthers 0, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3; Q4: Carolina Panthers 7, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3; Final: Carolina Panthers 14, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16.
Who scored touchdowns and field goals in Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — C. Otton (B. Mayfield pass) (Q1 9:35) Carolina Panthers touchdown — T. Tremble (B. Young pass) (Q2 10:56) Carolina Panthers touchdown — J. Coker (B. Young pass) (Q4 2:31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal — C. McLaughlin (Q1 2:01, 3 pts) Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal — C. McLaughlin (Q2 0:05, 3 pts) Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal — R. Dowdle (Q3 15:00, 3 pts) Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal — C. McLaughlin (Q4 14:17, 3 pts) Extra points followed each touchdown unless noted in the play-by-play.
How did the quarterbacks play in Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Byron Young (Carolina Panthers), 66.7% completion, +11.3% CPOE, +0.16 EPA per dropback, +5.64 total passing EPA. Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), 55.2% completion, +5.5% CPOE, +0.35 EPA per dropback, +10.16 total passing EPA.
Who was FantasyHQ's player of the game in Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) was FantasyHQ's Game MVP with +10.16 total EPA on Passing plays. across 29 snaps. Their top snap (-4.27 EPA): (12:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 56-C.Rozeboom at TB 39. 56-C.Rozeboom to TB 19 for 20 yards (13-M.Evans)..
Was Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers a close game?
Yes — the margin was 2 points. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 16-14 in a game that came down to the wire.
Season records after this game
Carolina Panthers
Entered 8-8 Now 8-9 L
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Entered 7-9 Now 8-9 W