Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos: 2015 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2015 NFL season on 2016-01-17, the Denver Broncos took care of business against the Pittsburgh Steelers, pulling away with a 23–16 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) paced the passing game, with +0.31 total EPA, and -0.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Heyward-Bey (Pittsburgh Steelers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.03 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-21.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Pittsburgh Steelers changed the game: (10:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-F.Toussaint left tackle to DEN 31 for 3 yards (29-B.Roby). FUMBLES (29-B.Roby), RECOVERED by DEN-94-D.Ware at DEN 35. 94-D.Ware to DEN 35 for no gain (72-C.Wallace).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Heyward-Bey · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +5.03 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.51 EPA/play
2. 2 S. Coates · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +4.63 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.54 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Bryant · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +4.28 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Fowler · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.16 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Bryant · Pittsburgh Steelers · Rushing · +1.30 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.65 EPA/play
6. 6 J. James · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +1.21 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.21 EPA/play
7. 7 V. Green · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +0.82 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Latimer · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +0.67 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Pittsburgh Steelers — F. Toussaint (Q1 46:26)
• Denver Broncos — C. Anderson (Q4 3:04)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q1 56:25)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q1 48:45)
• Pittsburgh Steelers — C. Boswell (Q2 40:24)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q2 30:05)
• Pittsburgh Steelers — C. Boswell (Q3 24:36)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q3 17:50)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q4 0:57)
• Denver Broncos — B. Roethlisberger (Q4 0:53)
• Pittsburgh Steelers — C. Boswell (Q4 0:24)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Pittsburgh Steelers won the period 7–6. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the PIT 10 (Q1 56:25) — (11:25) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the PIT 23 (Q1 48:45) — (3:45) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Pittsburgh Steelers found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q1 46:26) — (1:26) 33-F.Toussaint right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Pittsburgh Steelers added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q1 46:22) — 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Pittsburgh Steelers connected on a field goal from the DEN 25 (Q2 40:24) — (10:24) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the PIT 33 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Pittsburgh Steelers connected on a field goal from the DEN 10 (Q3 24:36) — (9:36) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the PIT 23 (Q3 17:50) — (2:50) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The fourth quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 14–3. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the PIT 1 (Q4 3:04) — (3:04) (No Huddle) 22-C.Anderson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos registered a safety from the PIT 2 (Q4 3:00) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-P.Manning pass to 88-D.Thomas is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the PIT 27 (Q4 0:57) — (:57) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the DEN 80 (Q4 0:53); Pittsburgh Steelers connected on a field goal from the DEN 29 (Q4 0:24) — (:24) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q4 10:00) — (10:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-F.Toussaint left tackle to DEN 31 for 3 yards (29-B.Roby). FUMBLES (29-B.Roby), RECOVERED by DEN-94-D.Ware at DEN 35. 94-D.Ware to DEN 35 for no gain (72-C.Wallace). [WPA -21.8% · EPA -5.15]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 8:37) — (8:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 16-B.Fowler to PIT 36 for 31 yards (21-R.Golden; 92-J.Harrison). [WPA +16.3% · EPA +3.41]
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q2 42:52) — (12:52) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 88-D.Heyward-Bey to DEN 22 for 58 yards (29-B.Roby). [WPA +13.6% · EPA +4.83]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. [WPA +13.0% · EPA +1.09]
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q1 55:03) — (10:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 14-S.Coates pushed ob at DEN 41 for 37 yards (26-D.Stewart). [WPA +11.9% · EPA +4.04]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q4 10:00) — (10:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-F.Toussaint left tackle to DEN 31 for 3 yards (29-B.Roby). FUMBLES (29-B.Roby), RECOVERED by DEN-94-D.Ware at DEN 35. 94-D.Ware to DEN 35 for no gain (72-C.Wallace). [WPA -21.8% · EPA -5.15]
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q2 42:52) — (12:52) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 88-D.Heyward-Bey to DEN 22 for 58 yards (29-B.Roby). [WPA +13.6% · EPA +4.83]
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q3 26:48) — (11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 10-M.Bryant to DEN 27 for 52 yards (43-T.Ward). [WPA +11.2% · EPA +4.23]
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q1 53:02) — (8:02) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Wheaton (21-A.Talib). [WPA -8.8% · EPA -4.09]

Quarterback report card

B.Roethlisberger led all passers in efficiency for Pittsburgh Steelers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) · 42 dropbacks · 57.1% completion · -0.5% CPOE · +0.01 EPA/play · +0.31 total EPA
• P.Manning (Denver Broncos) · 40 dropbacks · 52.5% completion · -8.2% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -3.76 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Denver Broncos held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (-0.06 vs -0.13), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Denver Broncos: 14 drives, -5.15 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 13 drives, -10.39 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Denver Broncos leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Heyward-Bey (Pittsburgh Steelers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (DEN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 56:25 · PIT 10 · Score 0-3
   (11:25) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
2. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 48:45 · PIT 23 · Score 0-6
   (3:45) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers TD (+6) — Q1 46:26 · DEN 1 · Score 6-6
   (1:26) 33-F.Toussaint right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers XP (+1) — Q1 46:22 · DEN 15 · Score 7-6
   9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers FG (+3) — Q2 40:24 · DEN 25 · Score 10-6
   (10:24) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
6. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · PIT 33 · Score 10-9
   (:05) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers FG (+3) — Q3 24:36 · DEN 10 · Score 13-9
   (9:36) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
8. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q3 17:50 · PIT 23 · Score 13-12
   (2:50) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
9. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 3:04 · PIT 1 · Score 13-18
   (3:04) (No Huddle) 22-C.Anderson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Denver Broncos Safety (+2) — Q4 3:00 · PIT 2 · Score 13-20
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-P.Manning pass to 88-D.Thomas is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
11. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q4 0:57 · PIT 27 · Score 13-23
    (:57) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
12. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q4 0:53 · DEN 80 · Score 13-23
    (:53) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 11-M.Wheaton (25-C.Harris). PENALTY on DEN-25-C.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards,
13. Pittsburgh Steelers FG (+3) — Q4 0:24 · DEN 29 · Score 16-23
    (:24) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.