New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 2006 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2006 NFL season on 2007-01-14, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Los Angeles Chargers, pulling away with a 24–21 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 45 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with -0.79 total EPA, and -7.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Gaffney (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.34 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+27.4% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (2:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Caldwell ran ob at LAC 17 for 49 yards.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Gaffney · New England Patriots · Receiving · +9.34 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.93 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Caldwell · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.97 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.71 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Turner · Los Angeles Chargers · Rushing · +4.44 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.48 EPA/play
4. 4 L. Tomlinson · Los Angeles Chargers · Receiving · +4.33 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.17 EPA/play
5. 5 E. Parker · Los Angeles Chargers · Receiving · +3.69 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.85 EPA/play
6. 6 V. Jackson · Los Angeles Chargers · Receiving · +3.54 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.77 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Gates · Los Angeles Chargers · Receiving · +2.80 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Tomlinson · Los Angeles Chargers · Rushing · +2.74 total EPA · 24 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Los Angeles Chargers — L. Tomlinson (Q2 37:24)
• Los Angeles Chargers — M. Turner (Q2 32:10)
• New England Patriots — J. Gaffney (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:13)
• Los Angeles Chargers — L. Tomlinson (Q4 8:40)
• New England Patriots — R. Caldwell (T. Brady pass) (Q4 4:41)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 45:46)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 17:15)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 1:14)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the LAC 32 (Q1 45:46) — (:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel..

The second quarter: Los Angeles Chargers won the period 28–17. Los Angeles Chargers found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q2 37:24) — (7:24) 21-L.Tomlinson left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Los Angeles Chargers added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 37:19) — 10-N.Kaeding extra point is GOOD, Center-50-D.Binn, Holder-5-M.Scifres.; Los Angeles Chargers found the end zone from the NE 6 (Q2 32:10) — (2:10) 33-M.Turner left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Los Angeles Chargers added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 32:04) — 10-N.Kaeding extra point is GOOD, Center-50-D.Binn, Holder-5-M.Scifres.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the LAC 6 (Q2 30:13) — (:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 10-J.Gaffney for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the LAC 2 (Q2 30:08) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the NE 30 (Q2 30:08) — 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 38 yards from NE 30 to LAC 32. 91-B.McKinney (didn't try to advance), dead ball declared at LAC 33 for 1 yard.; Los Angeles Chargers found the end zone from the NE 30 (Q2 30:08) — 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 38 yards from NE 30 to LAC 32. 91-B.McKinney (didn't try to advance), dead ball declared at LAC 33 for 1 yard..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the LAC 16 (Q3 17:15) — (2:15) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 11–7. Los Angeles Chargers found the end zone from the NE 3 (Q4 8:40) — (8:40) 21-L.Tomlinson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Los Angeles Chargers added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 8:35); New England Patriots found the end zone from the LAC 4 (Q4 4:41) — (4:41) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Caldwell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots registered a safety from the LAC 2 (Q4 4:36) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 33-K.Faulk rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the LAC 13 (Q4 1:14) — (1:14) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 2:42) — (2:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Caldwell ran ob at LAC 17 for 49 yards. [WPA +27.4% · EPA +3.67]
• Los Angeles Chargers (Q3 15:09) — (:09) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 21-L.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 59-R.Colvin at NE 36. 59-R.Colvin to NE 36 for no gain (21-L.Tomlinson). [WPA -19.9% · EPA -4.75]
• Los Angeles Chargers (Q4 0:08) — (:08) 10-N.Kaeding 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-50-D.Binn, Holder-5-M.Scifres. PENALTY on NE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 44. [WPA -18.9% · EPA -1.57]
• New England Patriots (Q3 20:32) — (5:32) 18-T.Sauerbrun punts 51 yards to LAC 31, Center-66-L.Paxton. 88-E.Parker MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-86-D.Thomas at LAC 31. 86-D.Thomas to LAC 31 for no gain (57-M.Wilhelm). [WPA +18.8% · EPA +5.89]
• Los Angeles Chargers (Q4 0:24) — (:24) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 88-E.Parker to NE 36 for 21 yards (25-A.Hawkins). [WPA +18.6% · EPA +1.19]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q3 20:32) — (5:32) 18-T.Sauerbrun punts 51 yards to LAC 31, Center-66-L.Paxton. 88-E.Parker MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-86-D.Thomas at LAC 31. 86-D.Thomas to LAC 31 for no gain (57-M.Wilhelm). [WPA +18.8% · EPA +5.89]
• New England Patriots (Q2 36:33) — (6:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 84-B.Watson INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Edwards at LAC 32. 59-D.Edwards to LAC 41 for 9 yards (39-L.Maroney). [WPA -16.2% · EPA -5.05]
• Los Angeles Chargers (Q3 15:09) — (:09) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 21-L.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 59-R.Colvin at NE 36. 59-R.Colvin to NE 36 for no gain (21-L.Tomlinson). [WPA -19.9% · EPA -4.75]
• Los Angeles Chargers (Q2 33:02) — (3:02) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 21-L.Tomlinson to NE 6 for 58 yards (22-A.Samuel). [WPA +11.6% · EPA +4.43]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 56 dropbacks · 48.2% completion · -7.0% CPOE · -0.01 EPA/play · -0.79 total EPA
• P.Rivers (Los Angeles Chargers) · 33 dropbacks · 42.4% completion · -12.6% CPOE · -0.23 EPA/play · -7.60 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New England Patriots +0.04, Los Angeles Chargers -0.01) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Los Angeles Chargers: 14 drives, -0.43 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 16 drives, +3.95 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Gaffney (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• P. Rivers (LAC) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 45:46 · LAC 32 · Score 3-0
   (:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
2. Los Angeles Chargers TD (+6) — Q2 37:24 · NE 2 · Score 3-6
   (7:24) 21-L.Tomlinson left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Los Angeles Chargers XP (+1) — Q2 37:19 · NE 2 · Score 3-7
   10-N.Kaeding extra point is GOOD, Center-50-D.Binn, Holder-5-M.Scifres.
4. Los Angeles Chargers TD (+6) — Q2 32:10 · NE 6 · Score 3-13
   (2:10) 33-M.Turner left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Los Angeles Chargers XP (+1) — Q2 32:04 · NE 2 · Score 3-14
   10-N.Kaeding extra point is GOOD, Center-50-D.Binn, Holder-5-M.Scifres.
6. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 30:13 · LAC 6 · Score 9-14
   (:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 10-J.Gaffney for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 30:08 · LAC 2 · Score 10-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
8. New England Patriots TD (+10) — Q2 30:08 · NE 30 · Score 10-14
   3-S.Gostkowski kicks 38 yards from NE 30 to LAC 32. 91-B.McKinney (didn't try to advance), dead ball declared at LAC 33 for 1 yard.
9. Los Angeles Chargers TD (+14) — Q2 30:08 · NE 30 · Score 10-14
   3-S.Gostkowski kicks 38 yards from NE 30 to LAC 32. 91-B.McKinney (didn't try to advance), dead ball declared at LAC 33 for 1 yard.
10. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 17:15 · LAC 16 · Score 13-14
    (2:15) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
11. Los Angeles Chargers TD (+6) — Q4 8:40 · NE 3 · Score 13-20
    (8:40) 21-L.Tomlinson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Los Angeles Chargers XP (+1) — Q4 8:35 · NE 2 · Score 13-21
    10-N.Kaeding extra point is GOOD, Center-50-D.Binn, Holder-5-M.Scifres. PENALTY on LAC-70-S.Olivea, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 4:41 · LAC 4 · Score 19-21
    (4:41) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Caldwell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. New England Patriots Safety (+2) — Q4 4:36 · LAC 2 · Score 21-21
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 33-K.Faulk rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
15. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 1:14 · LAC 13 · Score 24-21
    (1:14) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.