New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2006 Divisional Recap

Game story

In the Divisional of the 2006 NFL season on 2007-01-21, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 38–34 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 23 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +3.37 total EPA, and -0.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Clark (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.95 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-21.4% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 84-B.Watson INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Jackson at IND 35. 28-M.Jackson to IND 41 for 6 yards (77-N.Kaczur).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Clark · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +9.95 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.66 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +6.79 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.36 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Gaffney · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.73 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.91 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Brown · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.36 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.18 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.11 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.82 EPA/play
6. 6 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +3.37 total EPA · 52 snaps · +0.06 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Dillon · New England Patriots · Rushing · +3.17 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
8. 8 B. Watson · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.06 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.61 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — T. Brady (Q1 52:36)
• New England Patriots — C. Dillon (Q2 40:24)
• New England Patriots — A. Samuel (Q2 39:34)
• Indianapolis Colts — P. Manning (Q3 23:21)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Klecko (P. Manning pass) (Q3 19:06)
• New England Patriots — J. Gaffney (T. Brady pass) (Q3 16:35)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Rhodes (Q4 13:34)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Addai (Q4 1:02)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q1 45:54)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 30:11)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 7:45)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 5:35)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 3:53)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 4 (Q1 52:36) — (7:36) 12-T.Brady FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 4, touched at IND 2, recovered by NE-70-L.Mankins at IND 0. TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 52:24) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 24 (Q1 45:54) — (:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 7 (Q2 40:24) — (10:24) 28-C.Dillon left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 40:18) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the NE 69 (Q2 39:34); New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 39:25) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 8 (Q2 30:11) — (:11) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 15–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q3 23:21) — (8:21) 18-P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q3 23:13) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q3 19:06) — (4:06) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 61-D.Klecko for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts registered a safety from the NE 2 (Q3 19:00) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 6 (Q3 16:35); New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 16:25) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 17–6. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q4 13:34); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 13:24) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 10 (Q4 7:45) — (7:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 18 (Q4 5:35) — (5:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 25 (Q4 3:53) — (3:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 3 (Q4 1:02) — (1:02) 29-J.Addai up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 1:00) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 0:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 84-B.Watson INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Jackson at IND 35. 28-M.Jackson to IND 41 for 6 yards (77-N.Kaczur). [WPA -21.4% · EPA -1.67]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 2:08) — (2:08) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 81-B.Fletcher ran ob at NE 37 for 32 yards. [WPA +17.8% · EPA +1.81]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 7:35) — (7:35) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 44-D.Clark to NE 25 for 52 yards (36-J.Sanders) [94-T.Warren]. [WPA +15.9% · EPA +2.99]
• New England Patriots (Q1 53:52) — (8:52) 28-C.Dillon right tackle pushed ob at IND 13 for 35 yards (41-A.Bethea). [WPA +15.9% · EPA +4.77]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:02) — (1:02) 29-J.Addai up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.2% · EPA +2.16]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 39:34) — (9:34) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right intended for 88-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Samuel at IND 39. 22-A.Samuel for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -7.9% · EPA -8.23]
• New England Patriots (Q1 53:52) — (8:52) 28-C.Dillon right tackle pushed ob at IND 13 for 35 yards (41-A.Bethea). [WPA +15.9% · EPA +4.77]
• New England Patriots (Q2 41:07) — (11:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-T.Brown to IND 7 for 27 yards (42-J.David). [WPA +12.1% · EPA +4.41]
• New England Patriots (Q3 19:00) — 4-A.Vinatieri kicks 71 yards from IND 30 to NE -1. 27-E.Hobbs pushed ob at IND 21 for 80 yards (43-M.Giordano). [WPA +15.1% · EPA +4.06]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 52 dropbacks · 51.9% completion · -0.9% CPOE · +0.06 EPA/play · +3.37 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 37 dropbacks · 56.8% completion · -2.4% CPOE · +0.06 EPA/play · +2.22 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New England Patriots +0.12, Indianapolis Colts +0.10) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 13 drives, +10.27 total EPA, 8 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 13 drives, +10.34 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Clark (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 52:36 · IND 4 · Score 6-0
   (7:36) 12-T.Brady FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 4, touched at IND 2, recovered by NE-70-L.Mankins at IND 0. TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 52:24 · IND 2 · Score 7-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
3. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q1 45:54 · NE 24 · Score 7-3
   (:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 40:24 · IND 7 · Score 13-3
   (10:24) 28-C.Dillon left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 40:18 · IND 2 · Score 14-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
6. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 39:34 · NE 69 · Score 20-3
   (9:34) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right intended for 88-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Samuel at IND 39. 22-A.Samuel for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 39:25 · IND 2 · Score 21-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
8. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 30:11 · NE 8 · Score 21-6
   (:11) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
9. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 23:21 · NE 1 · Score 21-12
   (8:21) 18-P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 23:13 · NE 2 · Score 21-13
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
11. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 19:06 · NE 1 · Score 21-19
    (4:06) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 61-D.Klecko for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Indianapolis Colts Safety (+2) — Q3 19:00 · NE 2 · Score 21-21
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 16:35 · IND 6 · Score 27-21
    (1:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 10-J.Gaffney for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-R.Mathis]. Play Challenged by IND and Upheld. (Timeout #1 by IND at 01:2
14. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 16:25 · IND 2 · Score 28-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
15. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 13:34 · NE 2 · Score 28-27
    (13:34) 33-D.Rhodes left tackle to NE 1 for 1 yard (52-E.Alexander). FUMBLES (52-E.Alexander), recovered by IND-63-J.Saturday at NE 0. TOUCHDOWN.
16. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 13:24 · NE 2 · Score 28-28
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
17. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 7:45 · IND 10 · Score 31-28
    (7:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
18. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 5:35 · NE 18 · Score 31-31
    (5:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
19. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 3:53 · IND 25 · Score 34-31
    (3:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-16-M.Cassel.
20. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 1:02 · NE 3 · Score 34-37
    (1:02) 29-J.Addai up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 1:00 · NE 2 · Score 34-38
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.