Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: 2023 Divisional Recap

Game story

In the Divisional of the 2023 NFL season on 2024-01-21, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 27–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +9.04 total EPA, and -0.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.28 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-31.2% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +9.28 total EPA · 28 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +9.04 total EPA · 46 snaps · +0.20 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +7.21 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.20 EPA/play
4. 4 K. Shakir · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +6.33 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.70 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Rice · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +5.07 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +4.71 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.94 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Valdes-Scantling · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +3.17 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Kincaid · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.96 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q2 43:37)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Kelce (P. Mahomes pass) (Q2 33:38)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q2 30:30)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Kelce (P. Mahomes pass) (Q3 26:55)
• Buffalo Bills — K. Shakir (J. Allen pass) (Q3 18:29)
• Kansas City Chiefs — I. Pacheco (Q4 14:24)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q1 53:11)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q1 49:40)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 39:15)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the KC 9 (Q1 53:11) — (8:11) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BUF 29 (Q1 49:40) — (4:40) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–10. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 5 (Q2 43:37) — (13:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 43:32) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BUF 11 (Q2 39:15) — (9:15) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 22 (Q2 33:38) — (3:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 33:33) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 2 (Q2 30:30) — (:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 30:26) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q3 26:55) — (11:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 26:48) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 13 (Q3 18:29) — (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q3 18:23) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q4 14:24) — (14:24) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 14:20) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:47) — (1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. [WPA -31.2% · EPA -3.26]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 12:13) — (12:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 12-M.Hardman to BUF 1 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson). Buffalo challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.M [WPA -21.0% · EPA -6.71]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 4:52) — (4:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (20-J.Reid). [WPA +17.8% · EPA +2.90]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 18:29) — (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.9% · EPA +3.58]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 16:00) — (1:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to BUF 16 for 32 yards (23-M.Hyde). [WPA +13.9% · EPA +2.45]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 12:13) — (12:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 12-M.Hardman to BUF 1 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson). Buffalo challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.M [WPA -21.0% · EPA -6.71]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 18:29) — (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.9% · EPA +3.58]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 33:38) — (3:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.8% · EPA +3.32]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:47) — (1:47) 2-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. [WPA -31.2% · EPA -3.26]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 46 dropbacks · 56.5% completion · -0.5% CPOE · +0.20 EPA/play · +9.04 total EPA
• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 28 dropbacks · 60.7% completion · +18.2% CPOE · +0.33 EPA/play · +9.28 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Kansas City Chiefs generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.20 vs +0.07), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 8 drives, +6.49 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 9 drives, +12.75 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Mahomes (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 53:11 · KC 9 · Score 0-3
   (8:11) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
2. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q1 49:40 · BUF 29 · Score 3-3
   (4:40) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 43:37 · KC 5 · Score 3-9
   (13:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 43:32 · KC 15 · Score 3-10
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
5. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 39:15 · BUF 11 · Score 6-10
   (9:15) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
6. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 33:38 · BUF 22 · Score 12-10
   (3:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 33:33 · BUF 15 · Score 13-10
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
8. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:30 · KC 2 · Score 13-16
   (:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 30:26 · KC 15 · Score 13-17
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
10. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 26:55 · BUF 3 · Score 19-17
    (11:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q3 26:48 · BUF 15 · Score 20-17
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
12. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 18:29 · KC 13 · Score 20-23
    (3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 18:23 · KC 15 · Score 20-24
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
14. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 14:24 · BUF 4 · Score 26-24
    (14:24) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 14:20 · BUF 15 · Score 27-24
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.