Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens: 2023 Conf. Championship Recap

Game story

In the Conf. Championship of the 2023 NFL season on 2024-01-28, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Baltimore Ravens, pulling away with a 17–10 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with +9.87 total EPA, and +13.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.53 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-18.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Baltimore Ravens changed the game: (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 1 for 8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-22-T.McDuffie at KC -1. Touchback.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +13.53 total EPA · 11 snaps · +1.23 EPA/play
2. 2 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +9.87 total EPA · 50 snaps · +0.20 EPA/play
3. 3 L. Jackson · Baltimore Ravens · Rushing · +3.23 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Valdes-Scantling · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +3.21 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.60 EPA/play
5. 5 O. Beckham · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +2.02 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Rice · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +1.44 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Hill · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +1.29 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
8. 8 G. Edwards · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +1.23 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.23 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Kelce (P. Mahomes pass) (Q1 52:46)
• Baltimore Ravens — Z. Flowers (L. Jackson pass) (Q1 50:09)
• Kansas City Chiefs — I. Pacheco (Q2 40:59)

Field goals

• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 30:08)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 30:04)
• Baltimore Ravens — J. Tucker (Q4 2:38)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BAL 19 (Q1 52:46) — (7:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q1 52:41) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the KC 30 (Q1 50:09) — (5:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q1 49:58) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout..

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 13–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BAL 2 (Q2 40:59) — (10:59) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q2 40:56) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BAL 34 (Q2 30:08) — (:08) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the KC 35 (Q2 30:04) — 7-H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to end zone, Touchback..

The fourth quarter: Baltimore Ravens won the period 3–0. Baltimore Ravens connected on a field goal from the KC 25 (Q4 2:38) — (2:38) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 1 for 8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-22-T.McDuffie at KC -1. Touchback. [WPA -18.3% · EPA -5.23]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q2 39:33) — (9:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 29 for -7 yards (90-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (90-C.Omenihu) [90-C.Omenihu], RECOVERED by KC-56-G.Karlaftis at BAL 33. [WPA -12.8% · EPA -5.48]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 6:54) — (6:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 80-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bush at KC -5. Touchback. [WPA -12.2% · EPA -4.25]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 54:11) — (9:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to BAL 28 for 13 yards (21-B.Stephens). [WPA +10.9% · EPA +3.62]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q1 50:09) — (5:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.8% · EPA +2.85]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Baltimore Ravens (Q2 39:33) — (9:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 29 for -7 yards (90-C.Omenihu). FUMBLES (90-C.Omenihu) [90-C.Omenihu], RECOVERED by KC-56-G.Karlaftis at BAL 33. [WPA -12.8% · EPA -5.48]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 1 for 8 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-22-T.McDuffie at KC -1. Touchback. [WPA -18.3% · EPA -5.23]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 6:54) — (6:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 80-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bush at KC -5. Touchback. [WPA -12.2% · EPA -4.25]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 36:23) — (6:23) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to BAL 13 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton). [WPA -8.8% · EPA -3.64]

Quarterback report card

P.Mahomes led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 50 dropbacks · 60.0% completion · +13.6% CPOE · +0.20 EPA/play · +9.87 total EPA
• L.Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) · 47 dropbacks · 42.6% completion · -5.5% CPOE · -0.27 EPA/play · -12.77 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Kansas City Chiefs generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.01 vs -0.12), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Baltimore Ravens: 11 drives, -8.16 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 11 drives, +0.61 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Mahomes (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• L. Jackson (BAL) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 52:46 · BAL 19 · Score 6-0
   (7:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q1 52:41 · BAL 15 · Score 7-0
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
3. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q1 50:09 · KC 30 · Score 7-6
   (5:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q1 49:58 · KC 15 · Score 7-7
   9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
5. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 40:59 · BAL 2 · Score 13-7
   (10:59) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 40:56 · BAL 15 · Score 14-7
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
7. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 30:08 · BAL 34 · Score 17-7
   (:08) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
8. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 30:04 · KC 35 · Score 17-7
   7-H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to end zone, Touchback.
9. Baltimore Ravens FG (+3) — Q4 2:38 · KC 25 · Score 17-10
   (2:38) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.