Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Divisional Recap

Game story

In the Divisional of the 2016 NFL season on 2017-01-22, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Green Bay Packers, pulling away with a 44–21 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) paced the passing game, with +13.94 total EPA, and -0.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +35.78 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+9.4% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (11:10) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to GB 36 for 13 yards (33-M.Hyde).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +35.78 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +15.04 total EPA · 12 snaps · +1.25 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +13.94 total EPA · 52 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.82 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Cobb · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +5.41 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Cook · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +4.70 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Freeman · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.13 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Nelson · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.36 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Sanu (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 53:30)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Ryan (Q2 37:31)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 30:07)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 29:03)
• Green Bay Packers — D. Adams (A. Rodgers pass) (Q3 24:23)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 19:15)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Nelson (A. Rodgers pass) (Q3 15:41)
• Atlanta Falcons — T. Coleman (Q4 12:11)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Cook (A. Rodgers pass) (Q4 6:48)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q1 45:17)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 2 (Q1 53:30); Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q1 53:24) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the GB 10 (Q1 45:17) — (:17) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 14–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 14 (Q2 37:31) — (7:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q2 37:24) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 5 (Q2 30:07); Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q2 30:03) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The third quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 15–13. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 73 (Q3 29:03) — (14:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-36-L.Gunter, Defensive Holding, declined.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q3 28:51) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the ATL 2 (Q3 24:23) — (9:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q3 24:19) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 4 (Q3 19:15); Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the ATL 3 (Q3 15:41) — (:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers registered a safety from the ATL 2 (Q3 15:38) — (Run formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 22-A.Ripkowski rushes right guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 7–6. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 3 (Q4 12:11) — (12:11) 26-T.Coleman left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q4 12:07) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the ATL 1 (Q4 6:48) — (6:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Cook for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 56:10) — (11:10) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to GB 36 for 13 yards (33-M.Hyde). [WPA +9.4% · EPA +2.46]
• Green Bay Packers (Q2 41:11) — (11:11) (Shotgun) 22-A.Ripkowski left guard to ATL 11 for 12 yards (32-J.Collins). FUMBLES (32-J.Collins), RECOVERED by ATL-32-J.Collins at ATL 0. Touchback (75-B.Bulaga). [WPA -8.5% · EPA -5.71]
• Green Bay Packers (Q1) — GAME ALTERNATE: Anderson, Walt (66) ALTERNATE: McGrath, John (5) ALTERNATE: Cavaletto, Gary (60) SUPERVISOR: DeFelice, Garth OBSERVER: Riveron, Al [WPA -8.1% · EPA -3.62]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 59:56) — (14:56) 24-D.Freeman right end to ATL 24 for 4 yards (76-M.Daniels). [WPA +6.7% · EPA -0.25]
• Green Bay Packers (Q1 50:39) — (5:39) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. [WPA -5.9% · EPA -4.32]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Green Bay Packers (Q2 41:11) — (11:11) (Shotgun) 22-A.Ripkowski left guard to ATL 11 for 12 yards (32-J.Collins). FUMBLES (32-J.Collins), RECOVERED by ATL-32-J.Collins at ATL 0. Touchback (75-B.Bulaga). [WPA -8.5% · EPA -5.71]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 29:03) — (14:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-36-L.Gunter, Defensive Holding, declined. [WPA -0.1% · EPA +5.67]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 10:37) — (10:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to ATL 29 for 34 yards (30-D.Olatoye). [WPA -0.0% · EPA +5.07]
• Green Bay Packers (Q1 50:39) — (5:39) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. [WPA -5.9% · EPA -4.32]

Quarterback report card

A.Rodgers led all passers in efficiency for Green Bay Packers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 52 dropbacks · 51.9% completion · -0.4% CPOE · +0.27 EPA/play · +13.94 total EPA
• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 42 dropbacks · 64.3% completion · +7.1% CPOE · +0.85 EPA/play · +35.78 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Atlanta Falcons held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.34 vs +0.03), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Atlanta Falcons: 9 drives, +29.80 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• Green Bay Packers: 11 drives, +2.41 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 53:30 · GB 2 · Score 0-6
   (8:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on GB-21-H.Clinton-Dix, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between
2. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 53:24 · GB 15 · Score 0-7
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
3. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 45:17 · GB 10 · Score 0-10
   (:17) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
4. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 37:31 · GB 14 · Score 0-16
   (7:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 37:24 · GB 15 · Score 0-17
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
6. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 30:07 · GB 5 · Score 0-23
   (:07) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld
7. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 30:03 · GB 15 · Score 0-24
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
8. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 29:03 · GB 73 · Score 0-30
   (14:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-36-L.Gunter, Defensive Holding, declined.
9. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 28:51 · GB 15 · Score 0-31
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
10. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q3 24:23 · ATL 2 · Score 6-31
    (9:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q3 24:19 · ATL 15 · Score 7-31
    2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
12. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 19:15 · GB 4 · Score 7-37
    (4:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman to GB 1 for 3 yards (42-M.Burnett). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the
13. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q3 15:41 · ATL 3 · Score 13-37
    (:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Green Bay Packers Safety (+2) — Q3 15:38 · ATL 2 · Score 15-37
    (Run formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 22-A.Ripkowski rushes right guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
15. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 12:11 · GB 3 · Score 15-43
    (12:11) 26-T.Coleman left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 12:07 · GB 15 · Score 15-44
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
17. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 6:48 · ATL 1 · Score 21-44
    (6:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Cook for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.