Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos: 2012 Wild Card Recap

Game story

In the Wild Card of the 2012 NFL season on 2013-01-12, the Baltimore Ravens took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 38–35 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Denver Broncos) paced the passing game, with +4.88 total EPA, and +1.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +18.59 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+57.5% win probability) landed in overtime when Baltimore Ravens changed the game: (3:59) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Holliday to DEN 7 for -7 yards (22-J.Smith).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Flacco · Baltimore Ravens · Passing · +18.59 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Smith · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +7.49 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.25 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Tamme · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +5.46 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.82 EPA/play
4. 4 P. Manning · Denver Broncos · Passing · +4.88 total EPA · 50 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Jones · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +4.35 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.87 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Dreessen · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.54 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Moreno · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.34 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.17 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Pitta · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +2.32 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Denver Broncos — T. Holliday (Q1 57:32)
• Baltimore Ravens — T. Smith (J. Flacco pass) (Q1 55:39)
• Baltimore Ravens — C. Graham (Q1 54:58)
• Denver Broncos — B. Stokley (P. Manning pass) (Q1 49:09)
• Denver Broncos — K. Moreno (P. Manning pass) (Q2 37:32)
• Baltimore Ravens — T. Smith (J. Flacco pass) (Q2 30:43)
• Denver Broncos — T. Holliday (Q3 30:00)
• Baltimore Ravens — R. Rice (Q3 15:23)
• Denver Broncos — D. Thomas (P. Manning pass) (Q4 7:18)
• Baltimore Ravens — J. Jones (J. Flacco pass) (Q4 0:41)

Field goals

• Baltimore Ravens — J. Tucker (Q6 13:24)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 14–14. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the DEN 62 (Q1 57:32) — (12:32) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Holliday for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the BAL 2 (Q1 57:14) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the DEN 59 (Q1 55:39) — (10:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 82-T.Smith for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q1 55:31) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the BAL 71 (Q1 54:58); Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q1 54:49) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BAL 15 (Q1 49:09) — (4:09) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 14-B.Stokley for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the BAL 2 (Q1 49:02) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BAL 14 (Q2 37:32) — (7:32) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 27-K.Moreno for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the BAL 2 (Q2 37:26) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the DEN 32 (Q2 30:43) — (:43) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 82-T.Smith for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 30:36) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BAL 35 (Q3 30:00) — 9-J.Tucker kicks 69 yards from BAL 35 to DEN -4. 11-T.Holliday for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the BAL 2 (Q3 29:47) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q3 15:23) — (:23) 27-R.Rice up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 15:20) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BAL 17 (Q4 7:18) — (7:18) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 88-D.Thomas for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the BAL 2 (Q4 7:11) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the DEN 70 (Q4 0:41) — (:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 12-J.Jones for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q4 0:31) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch..

The game: Baltimore Ravens won the period 3–0. Baltimore Ravens connected on a field goal from the DEN 29 (Q6 13:24) — (13:24) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Baltimore Ravens (OT 3:59) — (3:59) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Holliday to DEN 7 for -7 yards (22-J.Smith). [WPA +57.5% · EPA +0.71]
• Baltimore Ravens (OT 0:47) — (:47) (Shotgun) 27-R.Rice up the middle to DEN 34 for 11 yards (20-M.Adams). [WPA +38.0% · EPA +1.65]
• Denver Broncos (OT 6:58) — (6:58) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 20-E.Reed to BAL 6 for no gain (32-T.Carter). [WPA +36.2% · EPA +0.26]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 0:41) — (:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 12-J.Jones for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +28.0% · EPA +6.86]
• Baltimore Ravens (OT 11:13) — (11:13) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 49 for -7 yards (sack split by 58-V.Miller and 92-E.Dumervil). [WPA -25.4% · EPA -2.49]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q1 54:58) — (9:58) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right intended for 87-E.Decker INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Graham (23-C.Brown) at DEN 39. 24-C.Graham for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -20.4% · EPA -7.48]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 0:41) — (:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 12-J.Jones for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +28.0% · EPA +6.86]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 30:00) — 9-J.Tucker kicks 69 yards from BAL 35 to DEN -4. 11-T.Holliday for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +19.3% · EPA +6.19]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q1 57:32) — (12:32) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Holliday for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -16.1% · EPA -6.00]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Denver Broncos, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Denver Broncos) · 50 dropbacks · 56.0% completion · +1.7% CPOE · +0.10 EPA/play · +4.88 total EPA
• J.Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) · 41 dropbacks · 43.9% completion · -2.0% CPOE · +0.45 EPA/play · +18.59 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Baltimore Ravens +0.09, Denver Broncos +0.04) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Baltimore Ravens: 16 drives, +8.99 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Denver Broncos: 17 drives, +4.27 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Baltimore Ravens leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 57:32 · DEN 62 · Score 0-6
   (12:32) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Holliday for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 57:14 · BAL 2 · Score 0-7
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
3. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q1 55:39 · DEN 59 · Score 6-7
   (10:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 82-T.Smith for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q1 55:31 · DEN 2 · Score 7-7
   9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
5. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q1 54:58 · BAL 71 · Score 13-7
   (9:58) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right intended for 87-E.Decker INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Graham (23-C.Brown) at DEN 39. 24-C.Graham for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q1 54:49 · DEN 2 · Score 14-7
   9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
7. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 49:09 · BAL 15 · Score 14-13
   (4:09) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 14-B.Stokley for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 49:02 · BAL 2 · Score 14-14
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
9. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 37:32 · BAL 14 · Score 14-20
   (7:32) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 27-K.Moreno for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 37:26 · BAL 2 · Score 14-21
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
11. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q2 30:43 · DEN 32 · Score 20-21
    (:43) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 82-T.Smith for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q2 30:36 · DEN 2 · Score 21-21
    9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
13. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q3 30:00 · BAL 35 · Score 21-27
    9-J.Tucker kicks 69 yards from BAL 35 to DEN -4. 11-T.Holliday for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q3 29:47 · BAL 2 · Score 21-28
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
15. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q3 15:23 · DEN 1 · Score 27-28
    (:23) 27-R.Rice up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q3 15:20 · DEN 2 · Score 28-28
    9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
17. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 7:18 · BAL 17 · Score 28-34
    (7:18) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 88-D.Thomas for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 7:11 · BAL 2 · Score 28-35
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
19. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q4 0:41 · DEN 70 · Score 34-35
    (:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 12-J.Jones for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q4 0:31 · DEN 2 · Score 35-35
    9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
21. Baltimore Ravens FG (+3) — Q6 13:24 · DEN 29 · Score 38-35
    (13:24) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.