San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos: 2006 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2006 NFL season on 2006-12-31, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 26–23 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Smith (San Francisco 49ers) paced the passing game, with -7.40 total EPA, and -5.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Scheffler (Denver Broncos) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.39 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+38.4% win probability) landed in overtime when Denver Broncos changed the game: (4:40) 3-P.Ernster punts 54 yards to SF 27, Center-83-M.Leach. 17-B.Williams to SF 39 for 12 yards (54-P.Chukwurah).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Scheffler · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +5.39 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.80 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Smith · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +5.06 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.01 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Battle · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +4.43 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.11 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Norris · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +4.22 total EPA · 1 snaps · +4.22 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Jacobs · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +3.25 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.62 EPA/play
6. 6 F. Gore · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.90 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.45 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Robinson · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.71 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.36 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Bell · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.31 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Denver Broncos — C. Bailey (Q2 32:24)
• San Francisco 49ers — M. Norris (A. Smith pass) (Q3 23:01)
• San Francisco 49ers — W. Harris (Q3 21:35)
• Denver Broncos — T. Scheffler (J. Cutler pass) (Q4 1:35)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — J. Elam (Q1 45:47)
• Denver Broncos — J. Elam (Q2 41:23)
• San Francisco 49ers — J. Nedney (Q2 30:09)
• Denver Broncos — J. Elam (Q3 16:48)
• San Francisco 49ers — J. Nedney (Q4 12:00)
• San Francisco 49ers — J. Nedney (Q4 6:18)
• San Francisco 49ers — J. Nedney (OT 2:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 3–0. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the SF 4 (Q1 45:47) — (:47) 1-J.Elam 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-16-J.Plummer..

The second quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 10–3. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the SF 3 (Q2 41:23) — (11:23) 1-J.Elam 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-16-J.Plummer.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the DEN 35 (Q2 32:24) — (2:24) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 21-F.Gore INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bailey at DEN 30. 24-C.Bailey for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the SF 2 (Q2 32:09) — 1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-16-J.Plummer.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the DEN 28 (Q2 30:09) — (:09) 6-J.Nedney 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

The third quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 14–3. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the DEN 32 (Q3 23:01) — (8:01) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 40-M.Norris for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 22:52) — 6-J.Nedney extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the SF 78 (Q3 21:35); San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 21:25) — 6-J.Nedney extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the SF 4 (Q3 16:48) — (1:48) 1-J.Elam 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-16-J.Plummer..

The fourth quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–6. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the DEN 11 (Q4 12:00) — (12:00) 6-J.Nedney 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the DEN 28 (Q4 6:18) — (6:18) 6-J.Nedney 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the SF 9 (Q4 1:35) — (1:35) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 88-T.Scheffler for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the SF 2 (Q4 1:30) — 1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-16-J.Plummer..

Overtime: San Francisco 49ers won the period 3–0. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the DEN 18 (OT 2:00) — (2:00) 6-J.Nedney 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Denver Broncos (OT 4:40) — (4:40) 3-P.Ernster punts 54 yards to SF 27, Center-83-M.Leach. 17-B.Williams to SF 39 for 12 yards (54-P.Chukwurah). [WPA +38.4% · EPA -0.11]
• San Francisco 49ers (OT 7:07) — (7:07) 4-A.Lee punts 33 yards to DEN 11, Center-86-B.Jennings, fair catch by 87-D.Kircus. [WPA +28.8% · EPA -0.18]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 21:35) — (6:35) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left intended for 82-S.Alexander INTERCEPTED by 27-W.Harris at DEN 28. 27-W.Harris for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -28.4% · EPA -6.25]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 32:24) — (2:24) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 21-F.Gore INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bailey at DEN 30. 24-C.Bailey for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -26.0% · EPA -9.77]
• San Francisco 49ers (OT 3:34) — (3:34) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 84-B.Gilmore to DEN 25 for 14 yards (21-H.Abdullah). [WPA +24.4% · EPA +1.83]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 32:24) — (2:24) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 21-F.Gore INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bailey at DEN 30. 24-C.Bailey for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -26.0% · EPA -9.77]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 21:35) — (6:35) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left intended for 82-S.Alexander INTERCEPTED by 27-W.Harris at DEN 28. 27-W.Harris for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -28.4% · EPA -6.25]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 38:44) — (8:44) 16-J.Plummer pass deep middle intended for 84-J.Walker INTERCEPTED by 27-W.Harris at SF 19. 27-W.Harris to DEN 39 for 42 yards (39-K.Johnson). FUMBLES (39-K.Johnson), ball out of bounds at DEN [WPA -7.8% · EPA -4.28]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q3 23:01) — (8:01) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 40-M.Norris for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.1% · EPA +4.22]

Quarterback report card

A.Smith led all passers in efficiency for San Francisco 49ers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Smith (San Francisco 49ers) · 39 dropbacks · 43.6% completion · -5.3% CPOE · -0.19 EPA/play · -7.40 total EPA
• J.Cutler (Denver Broncos) · 38 dropbacks · 55.3% completion · +2.7% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -3.27 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, San Francisco 49ers generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.08 vs -0.16), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Denver Broncos: 17 drives, -14.89 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 15 drives, -8.51 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Scheffler (Denver Broncos) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Smith (SF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 45:47 · SF 4 · Score 0-3
   (:47) 1-J.Elam 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-16-J.Plummer.
2. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 41:23 · SF 3 · Score 0-6
   (11:23) 1-J.Elam 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-16-J.Plummer.
3. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 32:24 · DEN 35 · Score 0-12
   (2:24) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 21-F.Gore INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bailey at DEN 30. 24-C.Bailey for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 32:09 · SF 2 · Score 0-13
   1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-16-J.Plummer.
5. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 30:09 · DEN 28 · Score 3-13
   (:09) 6-J.Nedney 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
6. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q3 23:01 · DEN 32 · Score 9-13
   (8:01) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 40-M.Norris for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q3 22:52 · DEN 2 · Score 10-13
   6-J.Nedney extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
8. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q3 21:35 · SF 78 · Score 16-13
   (6:35) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left intended for 82-S.Alexander INTERCEPTED by 27-W.Harris at DEN 28. 27-W.Harris for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q3 21:25 · DEN 2 · Score 17-13
   6-J.Nedney extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
10. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q3 16:48 · SF 4 · Score 17-16
    (1:48) 1-J.Elam 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-16-J.Plummer.
11. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 12:00 · DEN 11 · Score 20-16
    (12:00) 6-J.Nedney 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
12. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 6:18 · DEN 28 · Score 23-16
    (6:18) 6-J.Nedney 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
13. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 1:35 · SF 9 · Score 23-22
    (1:35) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 88-T.Scheffler for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 1:30 · SF 2 · Score 23-23
    1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-16-J.Plummer.
15. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — OT 2:00 · DEN 18 · Score 26-23
    (2:00) 6-J.Nedney 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.