San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers: 2010 Week 7 Recap

Game story

In Week 7 of the 2010 NFL season on 2010-10-24, the Carolina Panthers took care of business against the San Francisco 49ers, pulling away with a 23–20 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Moore (Carolina Panthers) paced the passing game, with +5.49 total EPA, and +9.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Gettis (Carolina Panthers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.97 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-36.4% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (13:04) 3-M.Moore pass short right intended for 28-J.Stewart INTERCEPTED by 91-R.McDonald [54-T.LaBoy] at CAR 31. 91-R.McDonald for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Gettis · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +9.97 total EPA · 9 snaps · +1.11 EPA/play
2. 2 B. LaFell · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +7.26 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.21 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Moore · Carolina Panthers · Passing · +5.49 total EPA · 46 snaps · +0.12 EPA/play
4. 4 V. Davis · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.60 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Rosario · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +2.59 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Smith · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +1.26 total EPA · 20 snaps · +0.06 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Crabtree · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +0.50 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Morgan · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +0.47 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• San Francisco 49ers — V. Davis (A. Smith pass) (Q1 55:31)
• Carolina Panthers — D. Gettis (M. Moore pass) (Q2 32:33)
• San Francisco 49ers — R. McDonald (Q4 13:04)
• Carolina Panthers — D. Gettis (M. Moore pass) (Q4 1:59)

Field goals

• Carolina Panthers — J. Kasay (Q1 50:45)
• San Francisco 49ers — J. Nedney (Q2 38:46)
• Carolina Panthers — J. Kasay (Q3 24:53)
• San Francisco 49ers — J. Nedney (Q4 15:00)
• Carolina Panthers — J. Kasay (Q4 0:43)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 7–3. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the CAR 1 (Q1 55:31) — (10:31) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 85-V.Davis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q1 55:26) — 6-J.Nedney extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the SF 29 (Q1 50:45) — (5:45) 4-J.Kasay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–3. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the CAR 6 (Q2 38:46) — (8:46) 6-J.Nedney 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the SF 18 (Q2 32:33) — (2:33) 3-M.Moore pass deep right to 12-D.Gettis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the SF 2 (Q2 32:28) — 4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The third quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 3–0. Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the SF 37 (Q3 24:53) — (9:53) 4-J.Kasay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 10–10. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the CAR 20 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 6-J.Nedney 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the SF 68 (Q4 13:04); San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q4 12:52) — 6-J.Nedney extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the SF 23 (Q4 1:59) — (1:59) (Shotgun) 3-M.Moore pass deep left to 12-D.Gettis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the SF 2 (Q4 1:53) — 4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the SF 19 (Q4 0:43) — (:43) 4-J.Kasay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q4 13:04) — (13:04) 3-M.Moore pass short right intended for 28-J.Stewart INTERCEPTED by 91-R.McDonald [54-T.LaBoy] at CAR 31. 91-R.McDonald for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -36.4% · EPA -8.03]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 1:14) — (1:14) (Shotgun) 5-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 15-M.Crabtree INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Marshall at CAR 43. 31-R.Marshall to CAR 43 for no gain (15-M.Crabtree). [WPA -26.6% · EPA -2.22]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 1:59) — (1:59) (Shotgun) 3-M.Moore pass deep left to 12-D.Gettis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.5% · EPA +3.57]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 42:43) — (12:43) 34-D.Williams left end to SF 36 for -3 yards (22-N.Clements). FUMBLES (22-N.Clements), RECOVERED by SF-98-P.Haralson at SF 44. 98-P.Haralson to SF 44 for no gain (42-T.Fiammetta). [WPA -15.8% · EPA -5.46]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 8:18) — (8:18) 3-M.Moore pass deep right to 12-D.Gettis to SF 17 for 39 yards (22-N.Clements). Penalty on SF-93-D.Evans, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. [WPA +13.7% · EPA +2.92]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q4 13:04) — (13:04) 3-M.Moore pass short right intended for 28-J.Stewart INTERCEPTED by 91-R.McDonald [54-T.LaBoy] at CAR 31. 91-R.McDonald for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -36.4% · EPA -8.03]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 42:43) — (12:43) 34-D.Williams left end to SF 36 for -3 yards (22-N.Clements). FUMBLES (22-N.Clements), RECOVERED by SF-98-P.Haralson at SF 44. 98-P.Haralson to SF 44 for no gain (42-T.Fiammetta). [WPA -15.8% · EPA -5.46]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 56:23) — (11:23) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 85-V.Davis to CAR 1 for 53 yards (30-C.Godfrey). [WPA +13.0% · EPA +4.19]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 1:59) — (1:59) (Shotgun) 3-M.Moore pass deep left to 12-D.Gettis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.5% · EPA +3.57]

Quarterback report card

M.Moore led all passers in efficiency for Carolina Panthers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Moore (Carolina Panthers) · 46 dropbacks · 60.9% completion · +9.0% CPOE · +0.12 EPA/play · +5.49 total EPA
• A.Smith (San Francisco 49ers) · 20 dropbacks · 45.0% completion · -7.7% CPOE · +0.06 EPA/play · +1.26 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (San Francisco 49ers -0.10, Carolina Panthers -0.07) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Carolina Panthers: 13 drives, -6.66 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 13 drives, -7.49 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Carolina Panthers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Gettis (Carolina Panthers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Moore (CAR) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• A. Smith (SF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q1 55:31 · CAR 1 · Score 6-0
   (10:31) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 85-V.Davis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q1 55:26 · CAR 2 · Score 7-0
   6-J.Nedney extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
3. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q1 50:45 · SF 29 · Score 7-3
   (5:45) 4-J.Kasay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
4. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 38:46 · CAR 6 · Score 10-3
   (8:46) 6-J.Nedney 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
5. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 32:33 · SF 18 · Score 10-9
   (2:33) 3-M.Moore pass deep right to 12-D.Gettis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 32:28 · SF 2 · Score 10-10
   4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
7. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q3 24:53 · SF 37 · Score 10-13
   (9:53) 4-J.Kasay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
8. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 15:00 · CAR 20 · Score 13-13
   (15:00) 6-J.Nedney 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
9. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 13:04 · SF 68 · Score 19-13
   (13:04) 3-M.Moore pass short right intended for 28-J.Stewart INTERCEPTED by 91-R.McDonald [54-T.LaBoy] at CAR 31. 91-R.McDonald for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q4 12:52 · CAR 2 · Score 20-13
    6-J.Nedney extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
11. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 1:59 · SF 23 · Score 20-19
    (1:59) (Shotgun) 3-M.Moore pass deep left to 12-D.Gettis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 1:53 · SF 2 · Score 20-20
    4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
13. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q4 0:43 · SF 19 · Score 20-23
    (:43) 4-J.Kasay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.