Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2018 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-16, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Seattle Seahawks, pulling away with a 26–23 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) paced the passing game, with +7.46 total EPA, and +17.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, N. Mullens (San Francisco 49ers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.89 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+20.7% win probability) landed in overtime when Seattle Seahawks changed the game: (7:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to SF 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (42-D.Hill).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 N. Mullens · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +11.89 total EPA · 36 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Baldwin · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +10.21 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.70 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Wilson · Seattle Seahawks · Passing · +7.46 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.20 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Pettis · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +5.62 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.12 EPA/play
5. 5 G. Celek · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +5.20 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.60 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Lockett · Seattle Seahawks · Receiving · +4.11 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.06 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Carson · Seattle Seahawks · Rushing · +3.79 total EPA · 22 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Breida · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +3.17 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Seattle Seahawks — D. Baldwin (R. Wilson pass) (Q1 54:31)
• San Francisco 49ers — R. James (Q1 54:27)
• San Francisco 49ers — G. Celek (N. Mullens pass) (Q2 39:37)
• Seattle Seahawks — D. Baldwin (R. Wilson pass) (Q2 35:29)
• Seattle Seahawks — C. Carson (Q4 13:57)

Field goals

• San Francisco 49ers — R. Gould (Q2 31:10)
• San Francisco 49ers — R. Gould (Q3 17:59)
• San Francisco 49ers — R. Gould (Q4 9:56)
• Seattle Seahawks — S. Janikowski (Q4 5:27)
• San Francisco 49ers — R. Gould (OT 3:11)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 7–6. Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the SF 5 (Q1 54:31) — (9:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF -5. 0-YAC; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the SEA 35 (Q1 54:27) — 11-S.Janikowski kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to SF 3. 13-R.James for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q1 54:15) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

The second quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 10–7. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the SEA 41 (Q2 39:37) — (9:37) 4-N.Mullens pass deep right to 88-G.Celek for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SEA 25. 25-YAC; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the SEA 15 (Q2 39:29) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the SF 35 (Q2 35:29) — (5:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 15. 15-YAC; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 35:19) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the SEA 9 (Q2 31:10) — (1:10) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

The third quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 3–0. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the SEA 15 (Q3 17:59) — (2:59) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

The fourth quarter: Seattle Seahawks won the period 10–3. Seattle Seahawks found the end zone from the SF 1 (Q4 13:57) — (13:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Seattle Seahawks added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 13:51) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the SEA 27 (Q4 9:56) — (9:56) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Seattle Seahawks connected on a field goal from the SF 30 (Q4 5:27) — (5:27) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson..

Overtime: San Francisco 49ers won the period 3–0. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the SEA 18 (OT 3:11) — (3:11) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Seattle Seahawks (OT 7:36) — (7:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to SF 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (42-D.Hill). [WPA +20.7% · EPA -0.43]
• San Francisco 49ers (OT 5:26) — (5:26) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Pettis (26-LA.Griffin) [51-B.Mingo]. PENALTY on SEA-26-LA.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 44 - No Play. [WPA +20.5% · EPA +1.78]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 54:27) — 11-S.Janikowski kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to SF 3. 13-R.James for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +19.1% · EPA +5.29]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 13:57) — (13:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.8% · EPA +2.59]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q4 8:39) — (8:39) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin to SF 31 for 26 yards (38-A.Exum). Caught at SF 32. 1-YAC [WPA +14.9% · EPA +2.76]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 54:27) — 11-S.Janikowski kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to SF 3. 13-R.James for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +19.1% · EPA +5.29]
• Seattle Seahawks (Q2 35:29) — (5:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 15. 15-YAC [WPA +13.3% · EPA +4.50]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 39:37) — (9:37) 4-N.Mullens pass deep right to 88-G.Celek for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SEA 25. 25-YAC [WPA +11.1% · EPA +3.74]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 47:50) — (2:50) (Shotgun) 41-J.Wilson left guard to SEA 40 for 14 yards (30-B.McDougald). FUMBLES (30-B.McDougald), touched at SEA 31, RECOVERED by SEA-37-T.Flowers at SEA 28. 37-T.Flowers to SEA 28 for no gai [WPA -9.4% · EPA -3.49]

Quarterback report card

R.Wilson led all passers in efficiency for Seattle Seahawks, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) · 38 dropbacks · 60.5% completion · +17.2% CPOE · +0.20 EPA/play · +7.46 total EPA
• N.Mullens (San Francisco 49ers) · 36 dropbacks · 55.6% completion · +4.9% CPOE · +0.33 EPA/play · +11.89 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Seattle Seahawks +0.06, San Francisco 49ers +0.10) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Seattle Seahawks: 12 drives, +5.78 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 13 drives, +8.00 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• N. Mullens (San Francisco 49ers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Wilson (SEA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• N. Mullens (SF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q1 54:31 · SF 5 · Score 6-0
   (9:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF -5. 0-YAC
2. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q1 54:27 · SEA 35 · Score 6-6
   11-S.Janikowski kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to SF 3. 13-R.James for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q1 54:15 · SEA 15 · Score 6-7
   9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
4. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 39:37 · SEA 41 · Score 6-13
   (9:37) 4-N.Mullens pass deep right to 88-G.Celek for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SEA 25. 25-YAC
5. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 39:29 · SEA 15 · Score 6-14
   9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
6. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q2 35:29 · SF 35 · Score 12-14
   (5:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 15. 15-YAC
7. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q2 35:19 · SF 15 · Score 13-14
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
8. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 31:10 · SEA 9 · Score 13-17
   (1:10) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
9. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q3 17:59 · SEA 15 · Score 13-20
   (2:59) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
10. Seattle Seahawks TD (+6) — Q4 13:57 · SF 1 · Score 19-20
    (13:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Seattle Seahawks XP (+1) — Q4 13:51 · SF 15 · Score 20-20
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
12. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q4 9:56 · SEA 27 · Score 20-23
    (9:56) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
13. Seattle Seahawks FG (+3) — Q4 5:27 · SF 30 · Score 23-23
    (5:27) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
14. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — OT 3:11 · SEA 18 · Score 23-26
    (3:11) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.