New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills: 2010 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2010 NFL season on 2010-10-03, the New York Jets took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 38–14 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -11.43 total EPA, and -10.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, L. Tomlinson (New York Jets) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.42 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-57.0% win probability) landed in the second quarter when New York Jets changed the game: (:28) (Shotgun) 21-L.Tomlinson right guard to NYJ 31 for 9 yards (51-P.Posluszny).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 L. Tomlinson · New York Jets · Rushing · +8.42 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Sanchez · New York Jets · Passing · +7.81 total EPA · 25 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Edwards · New York Jets · Receiving · +6.30 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.90 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Nelson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.98 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.00 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Fitzpatrick · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +3.50 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.87 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Keller · New York Jets · Receiving · +3.49 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.58 EPA/play
7. 7 F. Jackson · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +2.64 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
8. 8 B. Smith · New York Jets · Passing · +2.52 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.52 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New York Jets — L. Tomlinson (Q1 55:45)
• New York Jets — B. Edwards (M. Sanchez pass) (Q2 32:40)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Martin (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q2 30:41)
• New York Jets — D. Keller (B. Smith pass) (Q3 21:17)
• New York Jets — D. Keller (M. Sanchez pass) (Q3 19:42)
• New York Jets — L. Tomlinson (Q3 17:47)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Fitzpatrick (Q4 9:14)

Field goals

• New York Jets — N. Folk (Q2 36:49)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New York Jets won the period 7–0. New York Jets found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q1 55:45) — (10:45) 21-L.Tomlinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 55:42) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford..

The second quarter: New York Jets won the period 10–7. New York Jets connected on a field goal from the BUF 1 (Q2 36:49) — (6:49) 2-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford.; New York Jets found the end zone from the BUF 41 (Q2 32:40) — (2:40) 6-M.Sanchez pass deep right to 17-B.Edwards for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline at BUF 13.; New York Jets added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 32:32) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NYJ 4 (Q2 30:41) — (:41) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 80-D.Martin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in rear left corner of end zone.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q2 30:33) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The third quarter: New York Jets won the period 21–0. New York Jets found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q3 21:17); New York Jets added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 21:09) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford.; New York Jets found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q3 19:42) — (4:42) 6-M.Sanchez pass short left to 81-D.Keller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in back of end zone, crossing from middle.; New York Jets added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 19:36) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford.; New York Jets found the end zone from the BUF 26 (Q3 17:47) — (2:47) 21-L.Tomlinson up the middle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 17:40) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NYJ 13 (Q4 9:14) — (9:14) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 13-St. Johnson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in rear corner of end zone.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q4 9:10) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New York Jets (Q2 30:28) — (:28) (Shotgun) 21-L.Tomlinson right guard to NYJ 31 for 9 yards (51-P.Posluszny). [WPA -57.0% · EPA +0.70]
• New York Jets (Q2) — End of half - 2:23 pm [WPA +55.3% · EPA -1.63]
• New York Jets (Q1 52:28) — (7:28) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford. [WPA -10.7% · EPA -3.60]
• New York Jets (Q1 57:46) — (12:46) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanchez pass short right to 81-D.Keller to BUF 39 for 8 yards (27-R.Corner). Flat pass, caught at BUF 42. [WPA +6.9% · EPA +1.71]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 55:42) — 2-N.Folk kicks 35 yards from NYJ 30 to BUF 35. 93-C.Ellis MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-56-L.Laury at BUF 39. C.Ellis never gained control of ball, bobbled from BUF 35 to BUF 41. [WPA -6.7% · EPA -3.89]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 21:03) — (6:03) 23-M.Lynch left guard to BUF 23 for no gain (58-B.Thomas). FUMBLES (58-B.Thomas), RECOVERED by NYJ-99-J.Taylor at BUF 23. [WPA -3.2% · EPA -5.11]
• New York Jets (Q2 32:40) — (2:40) 6-M.Sanchez pass deep right to 17-B.Edwards for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline at BUF 13. [WPA +5.5% · EPA +4.64]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 55:42) — 2-N.Folk kicks 35 yards from NYJ 30 to BUF 35. 93-C.Ellis MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-56-L.Laury at BUF 39. C.Ellis never gained control of ball, bobbled from BUF 35 to BUF 41. [WPA -6.7% · EPA -3.89]
• New York Jets (Q1 52:28) — (7:28) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford. [WPA -10.7% · EPA -3.60]

Quarterback report card

R.Fitzpatrick led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 34 dropbacks · 35.3% completion · -10.7% CPOE · -0.34 EPA/play · -11.43 total EPA
• M.Sanchez (New York Jets) · 25 dropbacks · 56.0% completion · +1.5% CPOE · +0.31 EPA/play · +7.81 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New York Jets generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.12 vs -0.24), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 14 drives, -15.82 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• New York Jets: 14 drives, +12.18 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New York Jets leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• L. Tomlinson (New York Jets) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Fitzpatrick (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q1 55:45 · BUF 1 · Score 6-0
   (10:45) 21-L.Tomlinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q1 55:42 · BUF 2 · Score 7-0
   2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford.
3. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q2 36:49 · BUF 1 · Score 10-0
   (6:49) 2-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford.
4. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q2 32:40 · BUF 41 · Score 16-0
   (2:40) 6-M.Sanchez pass deep right to 17-B.Edwards for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline at BUF 13.
5. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q2 32:32 · BUF 2 · Score 17-0
   2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:41 · NYJ 4 · Score 17-6
   (:41) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 80-D.Martin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in rear left corner of end zone.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 30:33 · NYJ 2 · Score 17-7
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
8. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q3 21:17 · BUF 3 · Score 23-7
   (6:17) Wildcat, direct snap to B.Smith (M.Sanchez at WR). 16-B.Smith pass short right to 81-D.Keller for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in coverage, in back of end
9. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q3 21:09 · BUF 2 · Score 24-7
   2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford.
10. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q3 19:42 · BUF 2 · Score 30-7
    (4:42) 6-M.Sanchez pass short left to 81-D.Keller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in back of end zone, crossing from middle.
11. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q3 19:36 · BUF 2 · Score 31-7
    2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford.
12. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q3 17:47 · BUF 26 · Score 37-7
    (2:47) 21-L.Tomlinson up the middle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q3 17:40 · BUF 2 · Score 38-7
    2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-9-S.Weatherford.
14. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 9:14 · NYJ 13 · Score 38-13
    (9:14) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 13-St. Johnson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in rear corner of end zone.
15. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 9:10 · NYJ 2 · Score 38-14
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.