New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2016 NFL season on 2017-01-01, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the New Orleans Saints, pulling away with a 38–32 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) paced the passing game, with +6.38 total EPA, and -6.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +21.35 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+11.3% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when New Orleans Saints changed the game: (6:07) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 82-C.Fleener to ATL 5 for 25 yards (23-R.Alford).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +21.35 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Thomas · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +7.75 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +7.41 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.82 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Brees · New Orleans Saints · Passing · +6.38 total EPA · 52 snaps · +0.12 EPA/play
5. 5 W. Snead · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +5.76 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.44 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Freeman · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.41 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Hightower · New Orleans Saints · Rushing · +3.29 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.10 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.21 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — T. Coleman (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 57:01)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q1 48:53)
• New Orleans Saints — T. Hightower (Q1 45:56)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 44:22)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Sanu (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 36:58)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Hardy (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 30:36)
• New Orleans Saints — M. Thomas (D. Brees pass) (Q4 12:47)
• New Orleans Saints — M. Ingram (Q4 2:50)
• New Orleans Saints — T. Cadet (D. Brees pass) (Q4 0:45)

Field goals

• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q1 48:57)
• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q2 33:44)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q3 20:22)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 14–10. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NO 7 (Q1 57:01) — (12:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q1 56:55) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the ATL 1 (Q1 48:57) — (3:57) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NO 75 (Q1 48:53) — (3:53) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q1 48:42) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 2 (Q1 45:56) — (:56) 34-T.Hightower left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q1 45:52) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The second quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 21–3. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NO 1 (Q2 44:22) — (14:22) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q2 44:17) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NO 10 (Q2 36:58) — (6:58) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q2 36:51) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the ATL 22 (Q2 33:44) — (3:44) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NO 7 (Q2 30:36) — (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 16-J.Hardy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q2 30:32) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 3–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the NO 4 (Q3 20:22) — (5:22) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 19–0. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 14 (Q4 12:47) — (12:47) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 1 (Q4 2:50) — (2:50) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 3 (Q4 0:45) — (:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 38-T.Cadet for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-13-M.Thomas was injured during the play.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q4 0:39) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New Orleans Saints (Q1 51:07) — (6:07) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 82-C.Fleener to ATL 5 for 25 yards (23-R.Alford). [WPA +11.3% · EPA +3.52]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 48:53) — (3:53) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.4% · EPA +5.37]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 57:46) — (12:46) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 24-D.Freeman to NO 7 for 35 yards (41-R.Harper). [WPA +7.3% · EPA +2.03]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 49:01) — (4:01) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 82-C.Fleener for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplet [WPA -5.7% · EPA -2.72]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 45:52) — (:52) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Jones. PENALTY on NO-41-R.Harper, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at ATL 30 - No Play. [WPA +5.5% · EPA +2.37]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New Orleans Saints (Q4 6:58) — (6:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Collins at ATL 0. Touchback. [WPA -0.6% · EPA -6.30]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 48:53) — (3:53) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.4% · EPA +5.37]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 51:07) — (6:07) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 82-C.Fleener to ATL 5 for 25 yards (23-R.Alford). [WPA +11.3% · EPA +3.52]
• New Orleans Saints (Q4 8:30) — (8:30) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 83-W.Snead to ATL 22 for 27 yards (22-K.Neal). FUMBLES (22-K.Neal), ball out of bounds at ATL 19. ATL-34-B.Poole was injured during the play. ATL-22-K.Ne [WPA +0.4% · EPA +3.50]

Quarterback report card

D.Brees led all passers in efficiency for New Orleans Saints, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Brees (New Orleans Saints) · 52 dropbacks · 55.8% completion · -6.9% CPOE · +0.12 EPA/play · +6.38 total EPA
• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 39 dropbacks · 69.2% completion · +8.2% CPOE · +0.55 EPA/play · +21.35 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Atlanta Falcons held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.18 vs +0.13), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Atlanta Falcons: 12 drives, +15.49 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 12 drives, +11.99 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Brees (NO) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 57:01 · NO 7 · Score 0-6
   (12:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 56:55 · NO 15 · Score 0-7
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
3. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q1 48:57 · ATL 1 · Score 3-7
   (3:57) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
4. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 48:53 · NO 75 · Score 3-13
   (3:53) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 48:42 · NO 15 · Score 3-14
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
6. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q1 45:56 · ATL 2 · Score 9-14
   (:56) 34-T.Hightower left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q1 45:52 · ATL 15 · Score 10-14
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
8. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 44:22 · NO 1 · Score 10-20
   (14:22) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 44:17 · NO 15 · Score 10-21
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
10. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 36:58 · NO 10 · Score 10-27
    (6:58) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 36:51 · NO 15 · Score 10-28
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
12. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q2 33:44 · ATL 22 · Score 13-28
    (3:44) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
13. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 30:36 · NO 7 · Score 13-34
    (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 16-J.Hardy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 30:32 · NO 15 · Score 13-35
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
15. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q3 20:22 · NO 4 · Score 13-38
    (5:22) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
16. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 12:47 · ATL 14 · Score 19-38
    (12:47) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 2:50 · ATL 1 · Score 25-38
    (2:50) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
18. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 0:45 · ATL 3 · Score 31-38
    (:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 38-T.Cadet for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-13-M.Thomas was injured during the play.
19. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 0:39 · ATL 15 · Score 32-38
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.