New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-20, the New England Patriots took care of business against the San Francisco 49ers, pulling away with a 30–17 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +13.19 total EPA, and +0.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.19 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-9.3% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when San Francisco 49ers changed the game: (3:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick sacked at NE 14 for -8 yards (54-D.Hightower). FUMBLES (54-D.Hightower) [54-D.Hightower], and recovers at NE 15. 7-C.Kaepernick to NE 15 for no gain (95-C.Long).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +13.19 total EPA · 46 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Mitchell · New England Patriots · Receiving · +9.95 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.99 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Harper · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +4.48 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.24 EPA/play
4. 4 S. Draughn · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +4.26 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.42 EPA/play
5. 5 G. Celek · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +3.48 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.16 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Kaepernick · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +2.94 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.08 EPA/play
7. 7 L. Blount · New England Patriots · Rushing · +2.26 total EPA · 22 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
8. 8 J. White · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.90 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — J. Edelman (T. Brady pass) (Q1 55:16)
• New England Patriots — J. White (T. Brady pass) (Q2 45:00)
• San Francisco 49ers — V. McDonald (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q2 35:03)
• New England Patriots — D. Amendola (T. Brady pass) (Q4 15:00)
• New England Patriots — M. Mitchell (T. Brady pass) (Q4 10:16)
• San Francisco 49ers — S. Draughn (C. Kaepernick pass) (Q4 2:10)

Field goals

• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q1 47:45)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 6:16)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 12–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the SF 4 (Q1 55:16) — (10:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0-yds YAC; New England Patriots found the end zone from the SF 15 (Q1 55:10) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the NE 15 (Q1 47:45) — (2:45) 4-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the SF 9 (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 12-yds YAC; New England Patriots added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 44:53) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the NE 18 (Q2 35:03) — (5:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 89-V.McDonald for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 2-yds YAC; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 34:56) — 4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 17–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the SF 5 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0-yds YAC; New England Patriots added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 14:55) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the SF 56 (Q4 10:16) — (10:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 19-M.Mitchell for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-A.Brooks]. 35-yds YAC; New England Patriots added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 10:06) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the SF 20 (Q4 6:16) — (6:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the NE 13 (Q4 2:10) — (2:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 24-S.Draughn for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 6-yds YAC; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 2:06) — 4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 48:30) — (3:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick sacked at NE 14 for -8 yards (54-D.Hightower). FUMBLES (54-D.Hightower) [54-D.Hightower], and recovers at NE 15. 7-C.Kaepernick to NE 15 for no gain (95-C.Long). [WPA -9.3% · EPA -1.53]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 51:48) — (6:48) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 24-S.Draughn to NE 27 for 26 yards (54-D.Hightower). 3-yds YAC [WPA +9.1% · EPA +2.74]
• New England Patriots (Q3 18:28) — (3:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 19-M.Mitchell to NE 42 for 21 yards (41-A.Bethea). 4-yds YAC [WPA +8.6% · EPA +2.73]
• New England Patriots (Q3 23:23) — (8:23) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 23 for -7 yards (55-A.Brooks). FUMBLES (55-A.Brooks) [55-A.Brooks], and recovers at NE 23. PENALTY on SF-33-R.Robinson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 30 - N [WPA +8.1% · EPA +1.93]
• New England Patriots (Q2 30:27) — (:27) (Shotgun) 33-D.Lewis left end ran ob at SF 48 for 12 yards (41-A.Bethea). [WPA +8.0% · EPA +0.86]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q4 10:16) — (10:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 19-M.Mitchell for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-A.Brooks]. 35-yds YAC [WPA +6.1% · EPA +6.24]
• New England Patriots (Q4 0:34) — (:34) 12-T.Brady kneels to SF 4 for -1 yards. [EPA -3.88]
• New England Patriots (Q1 47:36) — (2:36) 29-L.Blount up the middle to SF 33 for 44 yards (41-A.Bethea). [WPA +7.0% · EPA +3.16]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 51:48) — (6:48) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 24-S.Draughn to NE 27 for 26 yards (54-D.Hightower). 3-yds YAC [WPA +9.1% · EPA +2.74]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 46 dropbacks · 52.2% completion · +0.7% CPOE · +0.29 EPA/play · +13.19 total EPA
• C.Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) · 38 dropbacks · 42.1% completion · -6.8% CPOE · +0.08 EPA/play · +2.94 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.13 vs -0.08), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• New England Patriots: 12 drives, +12.05 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 11 drives, -6.24 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Kaepernick (SF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 55:16 · SF 4 · Score 6-0
   (10:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0-yds YAC
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 55:10 · SF 15 · Score 6-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q1 47:45 · NE 15 · Score 6-3
   (2:45) 4-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · SF 9 · Score 12-3
   (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 12-yds YAC
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 44:53 · SF 15 · Score 13-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
6. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 35:03 · NE 18 · Score 13-9
   (5:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 89-V.McDonald for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 2-yds YAC
7. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 34:56 · NE 15 · Score 13-10
   4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · SF 5 · Score 19-10
   (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0-yds YAC
9. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 14:55 · SF 15 · Score 20-10
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 10:16 · SF 56 · Score 26-10
    (10:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 19-M.Mitchell for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-A.Brooks]. 35-yds YAC
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 10:06 · SF 15 · Score 27-10
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
12. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 6:16 · SF 20 · Score 30-10
    (6:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
13. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 2:10 · NE 13 · Score 30-16
    (2:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 24-S.Draughn for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 6-yds YAC
14. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q4 2:06 · NE 15 · Score 30-17
    4-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.