New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 6 Recap

Game story

In Week 6 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-10-18, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 34–27 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 27 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +6.90 total EPA, and -1.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.43 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-21.6% win probability) landed in the second quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (11:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at NE 14. 29-M.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +7.43 total EPA · 43 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Luck · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +6.90 total EPA · 60 snaps · +0.12 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.38 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
4. 4 G. Whalen · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.65 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.78 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
6. 6 K. Martin · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.51 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.25 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Amendola · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.37 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Blount · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.31 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.31 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — D. Moncrief (A. Luck pass) (Q1 52:21)
• New England Patriots — J. Edelman (T. Brady pass) (Q1 47:56)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Adams (Q2 41:37)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q2 39:42)
• Indianapolis Colts — T. Hilton (A. Luck pass) (Q2 32:45)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q3 26:04)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (T. Brady pass) (Q4 12:56)
• Indianapolis Colts — G. Whalen (A. Luck pass) (Q4 1:26)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 43:53)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 30:06)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 5 (Q1 52:21); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q1 52:16) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 12 (Q1 47:56) — (2:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q1 47:50) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–13. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 22 (Q2 43:53) — (13:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the IND 90 (Q2 41:37); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 41:30) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 38 (Q2 39:42) — (9:42) (Run formation) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q2 39:33) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 3 (Q2 32:45) — (2:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Easley].; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 32:38) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 17 (Q2 30:06) — (:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 25 (Q3 26:04) — (11:04) (Run formation) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q3 25:56) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–6. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 11 (Q4 12:56) — (12:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-L.Blount for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q4 12:48) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 18 (Q4 1:26) — (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 17-G.Whalen for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q2 41:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at NE 14. 29-M.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -21.6% · EPA -6.45]
• New England Patriots (Q2 39:42) — (9:42) (Run formation) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.0% · EPA +4.04]
• New England Patriots (Q2 30:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-D.Amendola to IND 22 for 19 yards (52-D.Jackson; 29-M.Adams). [WPA +11.2% · EPA +1.14]
• New England Patriots (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 82-K.Martin to IND 27 for 39 yards. [WPA +11.2% · EPA +3.17]
• New England Patriots (Q3 26:04) — (11:04) (Run formation) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.8% · EPA +2.88]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q2 41:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at NE 14. 29-M.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -21.6% · EPA -6.45]
• New England Patriots (Q2 39:42) — (9:42) (Run formation) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.0% · EPA +4.04]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 16:14) — (1:14) (Punt formation) 32-C.Anderson up the middle to IND 36 for -1 yards (38-B.Bolden). Penalty on IND, Illegal Formation, declined. [WPA -5.2% · EPA -3.30]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 3:36) — (3:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Hilton. [WPA -2.1% · EPA -3.18]

Quarterback report card

A.Luck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 60 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -1.2% CPOE · +0.12 EPA/play · +6.90 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 43 dropbacks · 53.5% completion · -6.4% CPOE · +0.17 EPA/play · +7.43 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.14 vs +0.01), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Indianapolis Colts: 13 drives, +0.80 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 13 drives, +11.86 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 52:21 · NE 5 · Score 0-6
   (7:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Up
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 52:16 · NE 15 · Score 0-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 47:56 · IND 12 · Score 6-7
   (2:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 47:50 · IND 15 · Score 7-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
5. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 43:53 · IND 22 · Score 10-7
   (13:53) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
6. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 41:37 · IND 90 · Score 10-13
   (11:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at NE 14. 29-M.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 41:30 · NE 15 · Score 10-14
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 39:42 · IND 38 · Score 16-14
   (9:42) (Run formation) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 39:33 · IND 15 · Score 17-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
10. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 32:45 · NE 3 · Score 17-20
    (2:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Easley].
11. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 32:38 · NE 15 · Score 17-21
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
12. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 30:06 · IND 17 · Score 20-21
    (:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 26:04 · IND 25 · Score 26-21
    (11:04) (Run formation) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 25:56 · IND 15 · Score 27-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
15. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 12:56 · IND 11 · Score 33-21
    (12:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-L.Blount for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 12:48 · IND 15 · Score 34-21
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
17. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 1:26 · NE 18 · Score 34-27
    (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 17-G.Whalen for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.