New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2014 NFL season on 2014-11-16, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 42–20 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +0.58 total EPA, and +2.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Gray (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.66 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-11.3% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (8:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 87-R.Wayne INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty (24-D.Revis) at NE 22. 32-D.McCourty to NE 32 for 10 yards (80-C.Fleener).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Gray · New England Patriots · Rushing · +14.66 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +13.45 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Fleener · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +10.96 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.57 EPA/play
4. 4 B. LaFell · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.10 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.28 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.42 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.19 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
7. 7 S. Vereen · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.53 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Rushing · +1.93 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.97 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — J. Gray (Q1 53:42)
• New England Patriots — J. Gray (Q2 33:54)
• Indianapolis Colts — H. Nicks (A. Luck pass) (Q2 31:00)
• New England Patriots — T. Wright (T. Brady pass) (Q3 26:16)
• New England Patriots — J. Gray (Q3 18:34)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Castonzo (A. Luck pass) (Q4 13:36)
• New England Patriots — J. Gray (Q4 8:46)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q4 6:56)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q1 49:24)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q3 23:37)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 4 (Q1 53:42) — (8:42) (Run formation) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 35-J.Gray right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 53:37) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 13 (Q1 49:24) — (4:24) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q2 33:54) — (3:54) (Run formation) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 35-J.Gray up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 33:50) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 10 (Q2 31:00) — (1:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 14-H.Nicks for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 30:55) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q3 26:16) — (11:16) (Run formation) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 81-T.Wright for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 26:10) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 35 (Q3 23:37) — (8:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q3 18:34) — (3:34) (Run formation) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 35-J.Gray right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 18:30) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q4 13:36) — (13:36) (Run formation) 74-A.Castonzo reported in as eligible. 12-A.Luck pass short left to 74-A.Castonzo for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 13:32) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q4 8:46); New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 8:43) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 26 (Q4 6:56) — (6:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 6:46) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 38:39) — (8:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 87-R.Wayne INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty (24-D.Revis) at NE 22. 32-D.McCourty to NE 32 for 10 yards (80-C.Fleener). [WPA -11.3% · EPA -4.77]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 40:01) — (10:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 80-C.Fleener to NE 29 for 22 yards (39-B.Browner). [WPA +10.7% · EPA +1.80]
• New England Patriots (Q3 29:21) — (14:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 34-S.Vereen pushed ob at IND 41 for 39 yards (38-S.Brown). [WPA +10.1% · EPA +3.29]
• New England Patriots (Q2 31:25) — (1:25) (Run formation) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 87-R.Gronkowski INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at NE 33. 29-M.Adams to NE 23 for 10 yards (77-N.Solder). [WPA -9.7% · EPA -4.28]
• New England Patriots (Q1 48:45) — (3:45) (Run formation) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 35-J.Gray right end to NE 49 for 20 yards (29-M.Adams). [WPA +8.5% · EPA +1.53]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 38:39) — (8:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle intended for 87-R.Wayne INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty (24-D.Revis) at NE 22. 32-D.McCourty to NE 32 for 10 yards (80-C.Fleener). [WPA -11.3% · EPA -4.77]
• New England Patriots (Q2 31:25) — (1:25) (Run formation) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 87-R.Gronkowski INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at NE 33. 29-M.Adams to NE 23 for 10 yards (77-N.Solder). [WPA -9.7% · EPA -4.28]
• New England Patriots (Q4 6:56) — (6:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +0.4% · EPA +3.59]
• New England Patriots (Q3 29:21) — (14:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 34-S.Vereen pushed ob at IND 41 for 39 yards (38-S.Brown). [WPA +10.1% · EPA +3.29]

Quarterback report card

A.Luck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 43 dropbacks · 53.5% completion · +2.3% CPOE · +0.01 EPA/play · +0.58 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 32 dropbacks · 59.4% completion · +4.4% CPOE · +0.42 EPA/play · +13.45 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.31 vs +0.01), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, +0.74 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 11 drives, +27.29 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Gray (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 53:42 · IND 4 · Score 6-0
   (8:42) (Run formation) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 35-J.Gray right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 53:37 · IND 2 · Score 7-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q1 49:24 · NE 13 · Score 7-3
   (4:24) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 33:54 · IND 2 · Score 13-3
   (3:54) (Run formation) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 35-J.Gray up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 33:50 · IND 2 · Score 14-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
6. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 31:00 · NE 10 · Score 14-9
   (1:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 14-H.Nicks for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 30:55 · NE 2 · Score 14-10
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 26:16 · IND 2 · Score 20-10
   (11:16) (Run formation) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 81-T.Wright for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 26:10 · IND 2 · Score 21-10
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
10. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q3 23:37 · NE 35 · Score 21-13
    (8:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
11. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 18:34 · IND 2 · Score 27-13
    (3:34) (Run formation) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 35-J.Gray right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 18:30 · IND 2 · Score 28-13
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
13. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 13:36 · NE 1 · Score 28-19
    (13:36) (Run formation) 74-A.Castonzo reported in as eligible. 12-A.Luck pass short left to 74-A.Castonzo for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 13:32 · NE 2 · Score 28-20
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
15. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 8:46 · IND 1 · Score 34-20
    (8:46) (Run formation) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 35-J.Gray left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NE-87-R.Gronkowski, Unnecessary Roughness,
16. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 8:43 · IND 2 · Score 35-20
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
17. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 6:56 · IND 26 · Score 41-20
    (6:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 6:46 · IND 2 · Score 42-20
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.