New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2008 Week 9 Recap

Game story

In Week 9 of the 2008 NFL season on 2008-11-02, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 18–15 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Cassel (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +9.77 total EPA, and +8.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.47 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-16.2% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (4:53) (Run formation) 42-B.Green-Ellis right tackle to IND 31 for 1 yard (58-G.Brackett). PENALTY on NE-86-D.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 31.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +17.47 total EPA · 30 snaps · +0.58 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Cassel · New England Patriots · Passing · +9.77 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Gonzalez · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +8.86 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.22 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +6.73 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.12 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Moss · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.80 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Clark · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.30 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.49 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.62 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Thomas · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.36 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Gonzalez (P. Manning pass) (Q1 47:22)
• New England Patriots — B. Green-Ellis (Q3 22:18)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Gonzalez (P. Manning pass) (Q3 18:18)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 40:24)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 31:31)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 11:38)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 8:09)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 12 (Q1 47:22) — (2:22) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 11-A.Gonzalez for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 47:18) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 6–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 11 (Q2 40:24) — (10:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 17 (Q2 31:31) — (1:31) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 8–6. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 6 (Q3 22:18) — (7:18) (Run formation) 42-B.Green-Ellis up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 9 (Q3 18:18) — (3:18) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 11-A.Gonzalez for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts registered a safety from the NE 2 (Q3 18:12) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-P.Manning pass to 87-R.Wayne is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 7 (Q4 11:38) — (11:38) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 34 (Q4 8:09).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 4:53) — (4:53) (Run formation) 42-B.Green-Ellis right tackle to IND 31 for 1 yard (58-G.Brackett). PENALTY on NE-86-D.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 31. [WPA -16.2% · EPA -2.39]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 10:10) — (10:10) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 11-A.Gonzalez to NE 37 for 24 yards (31-B.Meriweather). [WPA +13.6% · EPA +2.65]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 18:18) — (3:18) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 11-A.Gonzalez for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.4% · EPA +2.99]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 8:09) — (8:09) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith. Penalty on NE-96-A.Thomas, Illegal Formation, declined. Penalty called covering the center. [WPA +13.0% · EPA +1.65]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:01) — (:01) 18-P.Manning spiked the ball to stop the clock. PENALTY on IND-18-P.Manning, False Start, 0 yards, enforced at NE 26 - No Play. Ten-second run off on the penalty ends the half. [WPA -11.7% · EPA -1.88]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 18:18) — (3:18) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 11-A.Gonzalez for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.4% · EPA +2.99]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 10:10) — (10:10) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 11-A.Gonzalez to NE 37 for 24 yards (31-B.Meriweather). [WPA +13.6% · EPA +2.65]
• New England Patriots (Q4 4:53) — (4:53) (Run formation) 42-B.Green-Ellis right tackle to IND 31 for 1 yard (58-G.Brackett). PENALTY on NE-86-D.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 31. [WPA -16.2% · EPA -2.39]
• New England Patriots (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short right to 81-R.Moss to IND 26 for 11 yards (23-T.Jennings). [WPA +11.5% · EPA +1.97]

Quarterback report card

M.Cassel led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Cassel (New England Patriots) · 38 dropbacks · 65.8% completion · +8.6% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +9.77 total EPA
• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 30 dropbacks · 70.0% completion · +9.6% CPOE · +0.58 EPA/play · +17.47 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New England Patriots +0.14, Indianapolis Colts +0.18) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 8 drives, +10.96 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 7 drives, +11.00 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Cassel (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• P. Manning (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 47:22 · NE 12 · Score 0-6
   (2:22) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 11-A.Gonzalez for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 47:18 · NE 2 · Score 0-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
3. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 40:24 · IND 11 · Score 3-7
   (10:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
4. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 31:31 · IND 17 · Score 6-7
   (1:31) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 22:18 · IND 6 · Score 12-7
   (7:18) (Run formation) 42-B.Green-Ellis up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 18:18 · NE 9 · Score 12-13
   (3:18) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 11-A.Gonzalez for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Indianapolis Colts Safety (+2) — Q3 18:12 · NE 2 · Score 12-15
   (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-P.Manning pass to 87-R.Wayne is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
8. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 11:38 · IND 7 · Score 15-15
   (11:38) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
9. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 8:09 · NE 34 · Score 15-18
   (8:09) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith. Penalty on NE-96-A.Thomas, Illegal Formation, declined. Penalty called cov