New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2007 Week 9 Recap

Game story

In Week 9 of the 2007 NFL season on 2007-11-04, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 24–20 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +6.45 total EPA, and +2.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Moss (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.14 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-25.7% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (14:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 88-K.Brady INTERCEPTED by 58-G.Brackett at IND 25. 58-G.Brackett ran ob at NE 47 for 28 yards. PENALTY on NE-72-M.Light, Unsportsmanlike Conduc

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Moss · New England Patriots · Receiving · +15.14 total EPA · 9 snaps · +1.68 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Addai · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +10.04 total EPA · 5 snaps · +2.01 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +6.45 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
4. 4 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.85 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.97 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.96 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play
6. 6 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +3.72 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Faulk · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.11 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.70 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Stallworth · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.96 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.98 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — R. Moss (T. Brady pass) (Q2 42:06)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Addai (P. Manning pass) (Q2 30:28)
• Indianapolis Colts — P. Manning (Q4 9:50)
• New England Patriots — W. Welker (T. Brady pass) (Q4 8:04)
• New England Patriots — K. Faulk (T. Brady pass) (Q4 3:21)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q1 48:05)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 37:37)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 17:26)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 3–0. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 3 (Q1 48:05) — (3:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 4 (Q2 42:06) — (12:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-R.Moss for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 42:00) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 7 (Q2 37:37) — (7:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 73 (Q2 30:28) — (:28) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 29-J.Addai for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 30:13) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 16 (Q3 17:26) — (2:26) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q4 9:50) — (9:50) 18-P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 9:42) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 3 (Q4 8:04) — (8:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 7:59) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 13 (Q4 3:21) — (3:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-K.Faulk for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 3:15) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 14:17) — (14:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 88-K.Brady INTERCEPTED by 58-G.Brackett at IND 25. 58-G.Brackett ran ob at NE 47 for 28 yards. PENALTY on NE-72-M.Light, Unsportsmanlike Conduc [WPA -25.7% · EPA -6.74]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:28) — (:28) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 29-J.Addai for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.3% · EPA +6.63]
• New England Patriots (Q4 3:28) — (3:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 18-D.Stallworth pushed ob at IND 13 for 33 yards (41-A.Bethea). [WPA +16.9% · EPA +2.57]
• New England Patriots (Q4 3:21) — (3:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-K.Faulk for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.3% · EPA +2.11]
• New England Patriots (Q4 8:59) — (8:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-R.Moss to IND 3 for 55 yards (41-A.Bethea). IND-21-B.Sanders was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Penalty on IND-41-A.Bethea, Defensive [WPA +13.1% · EPA +4.58]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q4 14:17) — (14:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 88-K.Brady INTERCEPTED by 58-G.Brackett at IND 25. 58-G.Brackett ran ob at NE 47 for 28 yards. PENALTY on NE-72-M.Light, Unsportsmanlike Conduc [WPA -25.7% · EPA -6.74]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:28) — (:28) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 29-J.Addai for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.3% · EPA +6.63]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 28:31) — (13:31) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle intended for 87-R.Wayne INTERCEPTED by 37-R.Harrison at IND 32. 37-R.Harrison to IND 30 for 2 yards (87-R.Wayne). [WPA -11.9% · EPA -4.62]
• New England Patriots (Q4 8:59) — (8:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-R.Moss to IND 3 for 55 yards (41-A.Bethea). IND-21-B.Sanders was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Penalty on IND-41-A.Bethea, Defensive [WPA +13.1% · EPA +4.58]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 38 dropbacks · 55.3% completion · +2.5% CPOE · +0.17 EPA/play · +6.45 total EPA
• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 34 dropbacks · 47.1% completion · -4.7% CPOE · +0.11 EPA/play · +3.72 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.05 vs -0.04), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, -2.98 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 11 drives, +4.03 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• R. Moss (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q1 48:05 · NE 3 · Score 0-3
   (3:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 42:06 · IND 4 · Score 6-3
   (12:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-R.Moss for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 42:00 · IND 2 · Score 7-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
4. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 37:37 · NE 7 · Score 7-6
   (7:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
5. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 30:28 · NE 73 · Score 7-12
   (:28) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 29-J.Addai for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 30:13 · NE 2 · Score 7-13
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
7. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 17:26 · IND 16 · Score 10-13
   (2:26) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
8. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 9:50 · NE 1 · Score 10-19
   (9:50) 18-P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 9:42 · NE 2 · Score 10-20
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 8:04 · IND 3 · Score 16-20
    (8:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 7:59 · IND 2 · Score 17-20
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
12. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 3:21 · IND 13 · Score 23-20
    (3:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-K.Faulk for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 3:15 · IND 2 · Score 24-20
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.