New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans: 2021 Week 5 Recap

Game story

In Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season on 2021-10-10, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Houston Texans, pulling away with a 25–22 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 18 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Mills (Houston Texans) paced the passing game, with +18.76 total EPA, and +9.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Mills (Houston Texans) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +18.76 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+16.5% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Houston Texans changed the game: (13:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 15-C.Moore for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon].

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Mills · Houston Texans · Passing · +18.76 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Jones · New England Patriots · Passing · +12.02 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Moore · Houston Texans · Receiving · +7.68 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.54 EPA/play
4. 4 C. Conley · Houston Texans · Receiving · +7.47 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.87 EPA/play
5. 5 H. Henry · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.48 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.81 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Johnson · Houston Texans · Receiving · +4.52 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Meyers · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.95 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Akins · Houston Texans · Receiving · +2.22 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.11 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Houston Texans — A. Auclair (D. Mills pass) (Q1 49:58)
• New England Patriots — D. Harris (Q2 44:21)
• Houston Texans — C. Moore (D. Mills pass) (Q2 43:09)
• Houston Texans — C. Conley (D. Mills pass) (Q3 28:39)
• New England Patriots — H. Henry (M. Jones pass) (Q4 9:36)

Field goals

• Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn (Q2 31:40)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q2 30:06)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q3 23:29)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q3 16:53)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q4 0:17)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Houston Texans won the period 6–0. Houston Texans found the end zone from the NE 11 (Q1 49:58) — (4:58) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 83-A.Auclair for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 9–9. New England Patriots found the end zone from the HOU 1 (Q2 44:21) — (14:21) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 37-D.Harris. 37-D.Harris left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the NE 67 (Q2 43:09) — (13:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 15-C.Moore for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon].; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the NE 15 (Q2 31:40) — (1:40) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the HOU 34 (Q2 30:06) — (:06) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

The third quarter: Houston Texans won the period 7–6. Houston Texans found the end zone from the NE 37 (Q3 28:39) — (13:39) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flea flicker; Houston Texans added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 28:31) — 7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the HOU 33 (Q3 23:29) — (8:29) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the HOU 14 (Q3 16:53) — (1:53) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the HOU 13 (Q4 9:36) — (9:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q4 9:31) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the HOU 3 (Q4 0:17) — (:17) 6-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Houston Texans (Q2 43:09) — (13:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 15-C.Moore for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon]. [WPA +16.5% · EPA +5.95]
• New England Patriots (Q4 3:14) — (3:14) 25-B.Bolden left end to HOU 18 for 24 yards (20-Ju.Reid). [WPA +15.4% · EPA +2.08]
• New England Patriots (Q4 9:36) — (9:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.3% · EPA +3.00]
• New England Patriots (Q4 5:18) — (5:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 1-N.Harry. PENALTY on HOU-97-M.Collins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NE 29 - No Play. [WPA +13.0% · EPA +2.60]
• New England Patriots (Q4 0:17) — (:17) 6-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. [WPA +12.6% · EPA +0.04]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q2 38:54) — (8:54) 37-D.Harris up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 37-D.Harris up the middle to HOU 1 for 4 yards (39-T [WPA -10.3% · EPA -6.35]
• Houston Texans (Q2 43:09) — (13:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 15-C.Moore for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon]. [WPA +16.5% · EPA +5.95]
• Houston Texans (Q2 32:50) — (2:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley to NE 4 for 40 yards (33-J.Williams). [WPA +9.2% · EPA +5.15]
• New England Patriots (Q3 29:19) — (14:19) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson [91-R.Lopez] at NE 44. 1-L.Johnson to NE 44 for no gain. [WPA -6.3% · EPA -3.84]

Quarterback report card

D.Mills led all passers in efficiency for Houston Texans, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Mills (Houston Texans) · 35 dropbacks · 60.0% completion · +9.3% CPOE · +0.54 EPA/play · +18.76 total EPA
• M.Jones (New England Patriots) · 32 dropbacks · 71.9% completion · +12.9% CPOE · +0.38 EPA/play · +12.02 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.07 vs +0.00), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Houston Texans: 11 drives, +0.25 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 9 drives, +5.11 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Mills (Houston Texans) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Mills (HOU) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• M. Jones (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q1 49:58 · NE 11 · Score 0-6
   (4:58) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 83-A.Auclair for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 44:21 · HOU 1 · Score 6-6
   (14:21) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 37-D.Harris. 37-D.Harris left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 43:09 · NE 67 · Score 6-12
   (13:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 15-C.Moore for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon].
4. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q2 31:40 · NE 15 · Score 6-15
   (1:40) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
5. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 30:06 · HOU 34 · Score 9-15
   (:06) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
6. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q3 28:39 · NE 37 · Score 9-21
   (13:39) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flea flicker
7. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q3 28:31 · NE 15 · Score 9-22
   7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
8. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 23:29 · HOU 33 · Score 12-22
   (8:29) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
9. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 16:53 · HOU 14 · Score 15-22
   (1:53) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 9:36 · HOU 13 · Score 21-22
    (9:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 9:31 · HOU 15 · Score 22-22
    6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
12. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 0:17 · HOU 3 · Score 25-22
    (:17) 6-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.