New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans: 2020 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season on 2020-11-22, the Houston Texans took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 27–20 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Watson (Houston Texans) paced the passing game, with +20.22 total EPA, and +7.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Watson (Houston Texans) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +20.22 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-13.9% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (1:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle [20-Ju.Reid].

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Watson · Houston Texans · Passing · +20.22 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Byrd · New England Patriots · Receiving · +14.58 total EPA · 7 snaps · +2.08 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Newton · New England Patriots · Passing · +9.74 total EPA · 43 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Cooks · Houston Texans · Receiving · +6.53 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.31 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Akins · Houston Texans · Receiving · +6.14 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.02 EPA/play
6. 6 W. Fuller · Houston Texans · Receiving · +5.43 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Fells · Houston Texans · Receiving · +3.11 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.55 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Meyers · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.98 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.99 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — D. Harris (Q1 51:57)
• Houston Texans — R. Cobb (D. Watson pass) (Q1 48:43)
• Houston Texans — D. Watson (Q2 33:58)
• Houston Texans — K. Coutee (D. Watson pass) (Q2 30:16)
• New England Patriots — D. Byrd (C. Newton pass) (Q3 23:21)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q2 38:36)
• Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn (Q3 17:07)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q4 7:42)
• Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn (Q4 4:14)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the HOU 9 (Q1 51:57) — (6:57) 37-D.Harris right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q1 51:52) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the NE 3 (Q1 48:43) — (3:43) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 18-R.Cobb for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-18-R.Cobb was injured during the play. He is Out.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q1 48:36) — 7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger..

The second quarter: Houston Texans won the period 14–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the HOU 26 (Q2 38:36) — (8:36) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the NE 4 (Q2 33:58) — (3:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-27-J.Jackson, Defensive Holding, declined.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 33:54) — 7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the NE 6 (Q2 30:16) — (:16) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 30:10).

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the HOU 42 (Q3 23:21) — (8:21) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 10-D.Byrd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q3 23:14) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the NE 18 (Q3 17:07) — (2:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the HOU 18 (Q4 7:42) — (7:42) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the NE 28 (Q4 4:14) — (4:14) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 1:18) — (1:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle [20-Ju.Reid]. [WPA -13.9% · EPA -3.44]
• New England Patriots (Q3 23:21) — (8:21) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 10-D.Byrd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.9% · EPA +3.84]
• Houston Texans (Q2 35:28) — (5:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 88-J.Akins to NE 25 for 25 yards (35-K.Dugger). [WPA +10.8% · EPA +2.37]
• Houston Texans (Q1 49:26) — (4:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 88-J.Akins pushed ob at NE 3 for 22 yards (30-J.McCourty). [WPA +9.7% · EPA +2.72]
• New England Patriots (Q4 11:52) — (11:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 10-D.Byrd to HOU 26 for 16 yards (21-B.Roby; 23-E.Murray). [WPA +9.5% · EPA +2.65]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q3 23:21) — (8:21) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 10-D.Byrd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.9% · EPA +3.84]
• New England Patriots (Q4 1:18) — (1:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle [20-Ju.Reid]. [WPA -13.9% · EPA -3.44]
• New England Patriots (Q3 25:13) — (10:13) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 10-D.Byrd ran ob at NE 48 for 30 yards (33-A.Moore). Penalty on HOU-26-V.Hargreaves, Illegal Contact, declined. [WPA +5.6% · EPA +3.42]
• Houston Texans (Q1 51:09) — (6:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks to NE 25 for 44 yards (24-S.Gilmore). [WPA +8.9% · EPA +3.18]

Quarterback report card

D.Watson led all passers in efficiency for Houston Texans, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Watson (Houston Texans) · 47 dropbacks · 59.6% completion · +7.8% CPOE · +0.43 EPA/play · +20.22 total EPA
• C.Newton (New England Patriots) · 43 dropbacks · 60.5% completion · -3.5% CPOE · +0.23 EPA/play · +9.74 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Houston Texans held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.16 vs +0.10), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Houston Texans: 9 drives, +12.63 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +7.88 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Houston Texans leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Watson (Houston Texans) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Watson (HOU) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• C. Newton (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 51:57 · HOU 9 · Score 6-0
   (6:57) 37-D.Harris right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 51:52 · HOU 15 · Score 7-0
   6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
3. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q1 48:43 · NE 3 · Score 7-6
   (3:43) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 18-R.Cobb for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-18-R.Cobb was injured during the play. He is Out.
4. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q1 48:36 · NE 15 · Score 7-7
   7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
5. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 38:36 · HOU 26 · Score 10-7
   (8:36) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
6. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 33:58 · NE 4 · Score 10-13
   (3:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-27-J.Jackson, Defensive Holding, declined.
7. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q2 33:54 · NE 15 · Score 10-14
   7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
8. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 30:16 · NE 6 · Score 10-20
   (:16) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q2 30:10 · NE 15 · Score 10-21
   7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. PENALTY on NE-29-J.Bethel, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 23:21 · HOU 42 · Score 16-21
    (8:21) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 10-D.Byrd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 23:14 · HOU 15 · Score 17-21
    6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
12. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q3 17:07 · NE 18 · Score 17-24
    (2:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
13. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 7:42 · HOU 18 · Score 20-24
    (7:42) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
14. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q4 4:14 · NE 28 · Score 20-27
    (4:14) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.