New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos: 2017 Week 10 Recap

Game story

In Week 10 of the 2017 NFL season on 2017-11-12, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 41–16 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +13.52 total EPA, and +14.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.52 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+19.5% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (13:30) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to DEN 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 28, RECOVERED by NE-47-J.Hollister at DEN 24. 47-J.Hollister to DEN 24 for no gain (84-I.McKe

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +13.52 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
2. 2 E. Sanders · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +8.22 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.34 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Burkhead · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.58 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Allen · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.47 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Bennett · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.08 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.69 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Amendola · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.94 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Develin · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.77 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — R. Burkhead (T. Brady pass) (Q1 57:43)
• New England Patriots — D. Lewis (Q1 53:39)
• New England Patriots — D. Allen (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:31)
• Denver Broncos — D. Thomas (B. Osweiler pass) (Q3 23:01)
• New England Patriots — D. Lewis (Q3 19:38)
• New England Patriots — J. White (T. Brady pass) (Q4 9:10)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q1 53:42)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q1 50:22)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 43:41)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 38:51)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q2 32:40)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–6. New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 14 (Q1 57:43) — (12:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 34-R.Burkhead for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q1 57:36) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the NE 21 (Q1 53:42) — (8:42) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 35 (Q1 53:39) — 8-B.McManus kicks 68 yards from DEN 35 to NE -3. 33-D.Lewis for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q1 53:24) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the NE 15 (Q1 50:22) — (5:22) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 13–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 7 (Q2 43:41) — (13:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 10 (Q2 38:51) — (8:51) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the NE 18 (Q2 32:40) — (2:40) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 11 (Q2 30:31) — (:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 83-D.Allen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-58-V.Miller, Defensive Holding, declined.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 30:25) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the NE 7 (Q3 23:01); Denver Broncos added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 22:54) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 8 (Q3 19:38) — (4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-D.Lewis up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q3 19:36) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 6 (Q4 9:10) — (9:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe].; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q4 9:04) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q1 58:30) — (13:30) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to DEN 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 28, RECOVERED by NE-47-J.Hollister at DEN 24. 47-J.Hollister to DEN 24 for no gain (84-I.McKe [WPA +19.5% · EPA +5.82]
• New England Patriots (Q1 53:39) — 8-B.McManus kicks 68 yards from DEN 35 to NE -3. 33-D.Lewis for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.7% · EPA +6.24]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 55:44) — (10:44) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 10-E.Sanders to NE 29 for 13 yards (21-M.Butler). [WPA +6.1% · EPA +1.64]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 52:36) — (7:36) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 10-E.Sanders to NE 36 for 38 yards (30-D.Harmon). [WPA +5.7% · EPA +3.49]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 40:44) — (10:44) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 34-R.Burkhead, Center-42-C.Kreiter, recovered by DEN-9-R.Dixon at DEN 30. 9-R.Dixon to DEN 30 for no gain (38-B.Bolden). [WPA -5.4% · EPA -3.34]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q1 53:39) — 8-B.McManus kicks 68 yards from DEN 35 to NE -3. 33-D.Lewis for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.7% · EPA +6.24]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 6:54) — (6:54) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left intended for 82-J.Heuerman INTERCEPTED by 23-P.Chung at NE 38. 23-P.Chung to DEN 32 for 30 yards (72-G.Bolles). [WPA -0.0% · EPA -5.98]
• New England Patriots (Q1 58:30) — (13:30) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to DEN 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 28, RECOVERED by NE-47-J.Hollister at DEN 24. 47-J.Hollister to DEN 24 for no gain (84-I.McKe [WPA +19.5% · EPA +5.82]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 52:36) — (7:36) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 10-E.Sanders to NE 36 for 38 yards (30-D.Harmon). [WPA +5.7% · EPA +3.49]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 38 dropbacks · 65.8% completion · +14.8% CPOE · +0.36 EPA/play · +13.52 total EPA
• B.Osweiler (Denver Broncos) · 34 dropbacks · 52.9% completion · -7.9% CPOE · +0.02 EPA/play · +0.75 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.33 vs -0.04), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Denver Broncos: 10 drives, -3.35 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +28.43 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• B. Osweiler (DEN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 57:43 · DEN 14 · Score 6-0
   (12:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 34-R.Burkhead for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 57:36 · DEN 15 · Score 7-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 53:42 · NE 21 · Score 7-3
   (8:42) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 53:39 · DEN 35 · Score 13-3
   8-B.McManus kicks 68 yards from DEN 35 to NE -3. 33-D.Lewis for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 53:24 · DEN 15 · Score 14-3
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
6. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 50:22 · NE 15 · Score 14-6
   (5:22) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
7. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 43:41 · DEN 7 · Score 17-6
   (13:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
8. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 38:51 · DEN 10 · Score 20-6
   (8:51) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
9. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 32:40 · NE 18 · Score 20-9
   (2:40) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 30:31 · DEN 11 · Score 26-9
    (:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 83-D.Allen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-58-V.Miller, Defensive Holding, declined.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 30:25 · DEN 15 · Score 27-9
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
12. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q3 23:01 · NE 7 · Score 27-15
    (8:01) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 88-D.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-21-M.Butler, Defensive Holding, declined. The Replay Offic
13. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q3 22:54 · NE 15 · Score 27-16
    8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
14. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 19:38 · DEN 8 · Score 33-16
    (4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-D.Lewis up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 19:36 · DEN 15 · Score 34-16
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
16. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 9:10 · DEN 6 · Score 40-16
    (9:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe].
17. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 9:04 · DEN 15 · Score 41-16
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.