New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos: 2009 Week 5 Recap

Game story

In Week 5 of the 2009 NFL season on 2009-10-11, the Denver Broncos took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 20–17 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

K. Orton (Denver Broncos) paced the passing game, with +12.49 total EPA, and +8.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, K. Orton (Denver Broncos) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.49 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-31.6% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (1:45) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 45 for -6 yards (99-V.Holliday). FUMBLES (99-V.Holliday), RECOVERED by DEN-92-E.Dumervil at NE 45. 92-E.Dumervil to NE 45 for no gain (70-L.Mankins).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 K. Orton · Denver Broncos · Passing · +12.49 total EPA · 52 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play
2. 2 E. Royal · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +6.67 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Gaffney · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +4.56 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +4.39 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
5. 5 B. Marshall · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +4.37 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Watson · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.92 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.96 EPA/play
7. 7 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.94 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Morris · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.85 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.62 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — W. Welker (T. Brady pass) (Q1 51:51)
• Denver Broncos — B. Marshall (K. Orton pass) (Q2 34:36)
• New England Patriots — B. Watson (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:09)
• Denver Broncos — B. Marshall (K. Orton pass) (Q4 5:27)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 48:56)
• Denver Broncos — M. Prater (Q3 22:25)
• Denver Broncos — M. Prater (OT 10:15)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 8 (Q1 51:51) — (6:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 83-W.Welker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q1 51:44) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the DEN 35 (Q1 48:56) — (3:56) 3-S.Gostkowski 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the NE 11 (Q2 34:36) — (4:36) 8-K.Orton pass short right to 15-B.Marshall for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 34:31) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-1-B.Kern.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the DEN 7 (Q2 30:09) — (:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 84-B.Watson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 30:05) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The third quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 3–0. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the NE 6 (Q3 22:25) — (7:25) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-1-B.Kern..

The fourth quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the NE 11 (Q4 5:27) — (5:27) 8-K.Orton pass short left to 15-B.Marshall for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 5:21) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-1-B.Kern..

Overtime: Denver Broncos won the period 3–0. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the NE 22 (OT 10:15) — (10:15) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-1-B.Kern..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q4 1:45) — (1:45) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 45 for -6 yards (99-V.Holliday). FUMBLES (99-V.Holliday), RECOVERED by DEN-92-E.Dumervil at NE 45. 92-E.Dumervil to NE 45 for no gain (70-L.Mankins). [WPA -31.6% · EPA -3.76]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 0:22) — (:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Orton sacked at DEN 50 for -6 yards (95-T.Banta-Cain). [WPA -15.0% · EPA -1.01]
• Denver Broncos (OT 10:15) — (10:15) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-1-B.Kern. [WPA +13.9% · EPA +0.86]
• New England Patriots (Q4 2:27) — (2:27) 34-S.Morris left end to NE 49 for 19 yards (26-J.Williams). [WPA +13.0% · EPA +0.86]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 5:27) — (5:27) 8-K.Orton pass short left to 15-B.Marshall for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.6% · EPA +2.13]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q1 50:33) — (5:33) 8-K.Orton pass short middle to 27-K.Moreno to DEN 42 for 7 yards (51-J.Mayo). FUMBLES (51-J.Mayo), RECOVERED by NE-30-B.McGowan at DEN 43. 30-B.McGowan to DEN 43 for no gain (10-J.Gaffney). Den [WPA -9.8% · EPA -4.36]
• New England Patriots (Q3 20:20) — (5:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-6-C.Hanson. [WPA -11.2% · EPA -3.86]
• New England Patriots (Q2 30:09) — (:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 84-B.Watson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.1% · EPA +3.84]
• New England Patriots (Q4 1:45) — (1:45) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 45 for -6 yards (99-V.Holliday). FUMBLES (99-V.Holliday), RECOVERED by DEN-92-E.Dumervil at NE 45. 92-E.Dumervil to NE 45 for no gain (70-L.Mankins). [WPA -31.6% · EPA -3.76]

Quarterback report card

K.Orton led all passers in efficiency for Denver Broncos, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• K.Orton (Denver Broncos) · 52 dropbacks · 67.3% completion · +8.0% CPOE · +0.24 EPA/play · +12.49 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 34 dropbacks · 55.9% completion · -7.0% CPOE · +0.13 EPA/play · +4.39 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (New England Patriots +0.04, Denver Broncos +0.04) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Denver Broncos: 12 drives, +3.88 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 11 drives, +2.89 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Denver Broncos leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• K. Orton (Denver Broncos) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• K. Orton (DEN) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 51:51 · DEN 8 · Score 6-0
   (6:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 83-W.Welker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 51:44 · DEN 2 · Score 7-0
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
3. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 48:56 · DEN 35 · Score 10-0
   (3:56) 3-S.Gostkowski 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
4. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 34:36 · NE 11 · Score 10-6
   (4:36) 8-K.Orton pass short right to 15-B.Marshall for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 34:31 · NE 2 · Score 10-7
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-1-B.Kern.
6. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 30:09 · DEN 7 · Score 16-7
   (:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 84-B.Watson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 30:05 · DEN 2 · Score 17-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
8. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q3 22:25 · NE 6 · Score 17-10
   (7:25) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-1-B.Kern.
9. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 5:27 · NE 11 · Score 17-16
   (5:27) 8-K.Orton pass short left to 15-B.Marshall for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 5:21 · NE 2 · Score 17-17
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-1-B.Kern.
11. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — OT 10:15 · NE 22 · Score 17-20
    (10:15) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-1-B.Kern.