New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: 2023 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season on 2023-12-31, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 27–21 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -3.40 total EPA, and -6.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, K. Harris (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.01 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+24.1% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: 2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NE 2. 83-J.Reagor for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 K. Harris · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.01 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.51 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Shakir · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.56 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.14 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +4.06 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.51 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Kincaid · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.41 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.20 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Douglas · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.11 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +0.87 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.87 EPA/play
7. 7 G. Davis · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +0.87 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Shakir · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +0.54 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — J. Reagor (Q1 60:00)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q1 51:40)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Douglas (Q2 42:47)
• New England Patriots — B. Zappe (Q2 39:51)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q3 25:45)
• New England Patriots — E. Elliott (Q4 11:05)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q1 57:10)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q1 47:19)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 13–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 35 (Q1 60:00) — 2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NE 2. 83-J.Reagor for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 59:48) — 37-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 17 (Q1 57:10) — (12:10) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q1 51:40) — (6:40) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q1 51:37) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 6 (Q1 47:19) — (2:19) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 66 (Q2 42:47); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 42:36) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 17 (Q2 39:51) — (9:51) 4-B.Zappe scrambles left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 39:44) — 37-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q3 25:45) — (10:45) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 25:42) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 6 (Q4 11:05) — (11:05) 15-E.Elliott right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 11:01) — 37-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q1 60:00) — 2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NE 2. 83-J.Reagor for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +24.1% · EPA +6.23]
• New England Patriots (Q1 53:41) — (8:41) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NE 24. 31-R.Douglas to NE 14 for 10 yards (86-P.Brown). [WPA -15.5% · EPA -5.43]
• New England Patriots (Q1 58:06) — (13:06) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 91-E.Oliver (31-R.Douglas) at NE 21. 91-E.Oliver to NE 21 for no gain. [WPA -10.9% · EPA -5.25]
• New England Patriots (Q2 42:47) — (12:47) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 83-J.Reagor INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NE 40. 31-R.Douglas for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -10.5% · EPA -7.00]
• New England Patriots (Q1 50:57) — (5:57) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left to 86-P.Brown to NE 30 for 5 yards (47-C.Benford). FUMBLES (47-C.Benford), RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at NE 30. 47-C.Benford to NE 30 for no gain (86-P.Br [WPA -10.2% · EPA -4.43]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q2 42:47) — (12:47) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 83-J.Reagor INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NE 40. 31-R.Douglas for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -10.5% · EPA -7.00]
• New England Patriots (Q1 60:00) — 2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NE 2. 83-J.Reagor for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +24.1% · EPA +6.23]
• New England Patriots (Q1 53:41) — (8:41) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NE 24. 31-R.Douglas to NE 14 for 10 yards (86-P.Brown). [WPA -15.5% · EPA -5.43]
• New England Patriots (Q1 58:06) — (13:06) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 91-E.Oliver (31-R.Douglas) at NE 21. 91-E.Oliver to NE 21 for no gain. [WPA -10.9% · EPA -5.25]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 35 dropbacks · 42.9% completion · -6.9% CPOE · -0.10 EPA/play · -3.40 total EPA
• B.Zappe (New England Patriots) · 31 dropbacks · 51.6% completion · +1.8% CPOE · -0.42 EPA/play · -12.91 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Buffalo Bills held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (-0.09 vs -0.20), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 13 drives, -7.68 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 13 drives, -13.51 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• K. Harris (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 60:00 · BUF 35 · Score 6-0
   2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NE 2. 83-J.Reagor for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 59:48 · BUF 15 · Score 7-0
   37-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 57:10 · NE 17 · Score 7-3
   (12:10) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 51:40 · NE 1 · Score 7-9
   (6:40) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 51:37 · NE 15 · Score 7-10
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
6. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 47:19 · NE 6 · Score 7-13
   (2:19) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 42:47 · BUF 66 · Score 7-19
   (12:47) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left intended for 83-J.Reagor INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at NE 40. 31-R.Douglas for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 42:36 · NE 15 · Score 7-20
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 39:51 · BUF 17 · Score 13-20
   (9:51) 4-B.Zappe scrambles left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 39:44 · BUF 15 · Score 14-20
    37-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
11. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 25:45 · NE 1 · Score 14-26
    (10:45) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 25:42 · NE 15 · Score 14-27
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 11:05 · BUF 6 · Score 20-27
    (11:05) 15-E.Elliott right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 11:01 · BUF 15 · Score 21-27
    37-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.