New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: 2018 Week 8 Recap

Game story

In Week 8 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-10-29, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 25–6 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +7.78 total EPA, and +2.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.78 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-18.7% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (3:04) 3-D.Anderson sacked at BUF 27 for -6 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy) [53-K.Van Noy], RECOVERED by NE-23-P.Chung at BUF 29. Penalty on BUF-62-V.Ducasse, Offensive Holding, declined.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +7.78 total EPA · 51 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Hogan · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.89 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.44 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.45 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
4. 4 J. White · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.36 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
5. 5 L. McCoy · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.25 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Holmes · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.14 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play
7. 7 Z. Jones · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.17 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Rushing · +1.59 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — J. White (Q4 10:01)
• New England Patriots — D. McCourty (Q4 6:09)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 49:49)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 41:51)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 35:46)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q2 31:44)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q3 22:42)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 17:06)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 7 (Q1 49:49) — (4:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 6–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 22 (Q2 41:51) — (11:51) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 20 (Q2 35:46) — (5:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 29 (Q2 31:44) — (1:44) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 33 (Q3 22:42) — (7:42) 4-S.Hauschka 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 7 (Q3 17:06) — (2:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 13–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q4 10:01) — (10:01) 28-J.White up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the NE 30 (Q4 6:09); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 5:54) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 18:04) — (3:04) 3-D.Anderson sacked at BUF 27 for -6 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy) [53-K.Van Noy], RECOVERED by NE-23-P.Chung at BUF 29. Penalty on BUF-62-V.Ducasse, Offensive Holding, declined. [WPA -18.7% · EPA -6.04]
• New England Patriots (Q2 30:10) — (:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. Penalty on NE-93-L.Guy, Offensive Holding, declined. [WPA -10.8% · EPA -1.94]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 22:42) — (7:42) 4-S.Hauschka 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. [WPA +9.3% · EPA +1.97]
• New England Patriots (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 15-C.Hogan to BUF 38 for 29 yards (21-J.Poyer). Caught at NE 49, slanting right. [WPA +8.2% · EPA +2.53]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 40:20) — (10:20) 9-C.Bojorquez to BUF 21 for -15 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 21. 9-C.Bojorquez punts 26 yards to NE 38, downed by BUF-42-P.DiMarco. [WPA -6.8% · EPA -1.41]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 6:09) — (6:09) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right intended for 85-C.Clay INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 16. 32-D.McCourty for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -6.3% · EPA -9.19]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 18:04) — (3:04) 3-D.Anderson sacked at BUF 27 for -6 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy) [53-K.Van Noy], RECOVERED by NE-23-P.Chung at BUF 29. Penalty on BUF-62-V.Ducasse, Offensive Holding, declined. [WPA -18.7% · EPA -6.04]
• New England Patriots (Q4 13:23) — (13:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 11-J.Edelman to NE 45 for 26 yards (23-M.Hyde). Caught near sideline at NE 43. [WPA +6.2% · EPA +2.86]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 3:55) — (3:55) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Benjamin (24-S.Gilmore). Receiver and coverage at NE 25, slanting right. [WPA -0.1% · EPA -2.84]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 51 dropbacks · 56.9% completion · +2.5% CPOE · +0.15 EPA/play · +7.78 total EPA
• D.Anderson (Buffalo Bills) · 43 dropbacks · 51.2% completion · -3.2% CPOE · -0.39 EPA/play · -16.86 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, New England Patriots generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.01 vs -0.29), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 12 drives, -24.05 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 12 drives, -1.14 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Anderson (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 49:49 · BUF 7 · Score 3-0
   (4:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
2. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 41:51 · BUF 22 · Score 6-0
   (11:51) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 35:46 · BUF 20 · Score 9-0
   (5:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
4. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 31:44 · NE 29 · Score 9-3
   (1:44) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
5. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 22:42 · NE 33 · Score 9-6
   (7:42) 4-S.Hauschka 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
6. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 17:06 · BUF 7 · Score 12-6
   (2:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 10:01 · BUF 1 · Score 18-6
   (10:01) 28-J.White up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 6:09 · NE 30 · Score 24-6
   (6:09) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right intended for 85-C.Clay INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 16. 32-D.McCourty for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 5:54 · BUF 15 · Score 25-6
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.