Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2024 Week 10 Recap

Game story

In Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season on 2024-11-10, the Minnesota Vikings took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 12–7 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 10 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

S. Darnold (Minnesota Vikings) paced the passing game, with +0.41 total EPA, and +0.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Hockenson (Minnesota Vikings) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.27 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-24.0% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [51-B.Cashman] at MIN -2. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was RE

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Hockenson · Minnesota Vikings · Receiving · +8.27 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.92 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Jones · Minnesota Vikings · Rushing · +2.80 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Oliver · Minnesota Vikings · Receiving · +2.51 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
4. 4 L. Farrell · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +1.38 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.69 EPA/play
5. 5 S. Darnold · Minnesota Vikings · Rushing · +1.36 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Sherfield · Minnesota Vikings · Receiving · +0.92 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.92 EPA/play
7. 7 S. Darnold · Minnesota Vikings · Passing · +0.41 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.01 EPA/play
8. 8 E. Engram · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +0.33 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.04 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones (Q1 48:48)

Field goals

• Minnesota Vikings — J. Romo (Q1 53:00)
• Minnesota Vikings — J. Romo (Q3 16:45)
• Minnesota Vikings — J. Romo (Q4 7:17)
• Minnesota Vikings — J. Romo (Q4 4:26)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–3. Minnesota Vikings connected on a field goal from the JAX 27 (Q1 53:00) — (8:00) 96-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the MIN 1 (Q1 48:48) — (3:48) 10-M.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the MIN 15 (Q1 48:44) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

The third quarter: Minnesota Vikings won the period 3–0. Minnesota Vikings connected on a field goal from the JAX 14 (Q3 16:45) — (1:45) 96-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright..

The fourth quarter: Minnesota Vikings won the period 6–0. Minnesota Vikings connected on a field goal from the JAX 16 (Q4 7:17) — (7:17) 96-J.Romo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.; Minnesota Vikings connected on a field goal from the JAX 11 (Q4 4:26) — (4:26) 96-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 1:57) — (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum [51-B.Cashman] at MIN -2. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was RE [WPA -24.0% · EPA -2.15]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 6:38) — (6:38) 10-M.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 27, touched at JAX 26, RECOVERED by MIN-97-H.Phillips at JAX 25. [WPA -21.3% · EPA -4.40]
• Minnesota Vikings (Q2 35:34) — (5:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 30-M.Brown [99-J.Ledbetter] at JAX -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and t [WPA -17.0% · EPA -5.36]
• Minnesota Vikings (Q3 27:24) — (12:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Savage at JAX 0. 6-D.Savage ran ob at JAX 29 for 29 yards (74-C.Robinson). Penalty on JAX-93-T.Lacy, Illeg [WPA -16.1% · EPA -4.77]
• Minnesota Vikings (Q1 46:27) — (1:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun (3-T.Campbell) at JAX 22. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 22 for no gain (84-J.Oliver). [WPA -13.9% · EPA -4.77]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Minnesota Vikings (Q2 35:34) — (5:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 30-M.Brown [99-J.Ledbetter] at JAX -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and t [WPA -17.0% · EPA -5.36]
• Minnesota Vikings (Q1 46:27) — (1:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun (3-T.Campbell) at JAX 22. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 22 for no gain (84-J.Oliver). [WPA -13.9% · EPA -4.77]
• Minnesota Vikings (Q3 27:24) — (12:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Savage at JAX 0. 6-D.Savage ran ob at JAX 29 for 29 yards (74-C.Robinson). Penalty on JAX-93-T.Lacy, Illeg [WPA -16.1% · EPA -4.77]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 6:38) — (6:38) 10-M.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 27, touched at JAX 26, RECOVERED by MIN-97-H.Phillips at JAX 25. [WPA -21.3% · EPA -4.40]

Quarterback report card

S.Darnold led all passers in efficiency for Minnesota Vikings, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• S.Darnold (Minnesota Vikings) · 44 dropbacks · 54.5% completion · +0.5% CPOE · +0.01 EPA/play · +0.41 total EPA
• M.Jones (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 28 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -1.0% CPOE · -0.26 EPA/play · -7.26 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Minnesota Vikings generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.01 vs -0.19), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 drives, -10.48 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• Minnesota Vikings: 10 drives, -0.90 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Minnesota Vikings leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Hockenson (Minnesota Vikings) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Minnesota Vikings FG (+3) — Q1 53:00 · JAX 27 · Score 3-0
   (8:00) 96-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 48:48 · MIN 1 · Score 3-6
   (3:48) 10-M.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 48:44 · MIN 15 · Score 3-7
   39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
4. Minnesota Vikings FG (+3) — Q3 16:45 · JAX 14 · Score 6-7
   (1:45) 96-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.
5. Minnesota Vikings FG (+3) — Q4 7:17 · JAX 16 · Score 9-7
   (7:17) 96-J.Romo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.
6. Minnesota Vikings FG (+3) — Q4 4:26 · JAX 11 · Score 12-7
   (4:26) 96-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.