Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: 2022 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season on 2023-01-01, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 23–21 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Jones (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +1.94 total EPA, and -2.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Mostert (Miami Dolphins) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.29 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-24.4% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Miami Dolphins changed the game: (3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Mostert · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +7.29 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.91 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Thornton · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.01 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
3. 3 H. Henry · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.50 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Jones · New England Patriots · Passing · +1.94 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.05 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Meyers · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.87 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Waddle · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +1.30 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Gesicki · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +1.30 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Hill · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · +1.21 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.21 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — T. Thornton (M. Jones pass) (Q1 52:19)
• Miami Dolphins — T. Hill (Q2 45:00)
• Miami Dolphins — R. Mostert (T. Bridgewater pass) (Q3 24:22)
• New England Patriots — K. Dugger (Q3 18:03)
• New England Patriots — J. Meyers (M. Jones pass) (Q4 4:40)
• Miami Dolphins — M. Gesicki (S. Thompson pass) (Q4 1:11)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q3 19:08)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 7 (Q1 52:19) — (7:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 11-T.Thornton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q1 52:15) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy..

The second quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 7–0. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 10-T.Hill left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 44:55) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 9–7. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q3 24:22) — (9:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 31-R.Mostert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-C.Barmore].; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 24:17) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the MIA 31 (Q3 19:08) — (4:08) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the NE 76 (Q3 18:03).

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 13–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 2 (Q4 4:40) — (4:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-16-J.Meyers was injured during the play.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 15 (Q4 4:37) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 4 (Q4 1:11) — (1:11) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 1:04) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Miami Dolphins (Q3 18:03) — (3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play [WPA -24.4% · EPA -5.59]
• Miami Dolphins (Q3 16:06) — (1:06) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 31-R.Mostert to MIA 47 for 17 yards (3-J.Peppers, 27-M.Bryant). PENALTY on NE-8-J.Bentley, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 47. [WPA +16.5% · EPA +3.31]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 14:24) — (14:24) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 31-Jo.Jones at NE 35. 31-Jo.Jones pushed ob at NE 37 for 2 yards (10-T.Hill). [WPA -16.3% · EPA -2.92]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 38:41) — (8:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 31-R.Mostert to NE 36 for 25 yards (55-J.Uche). [WPA +13.3% · EPA +2.63]
• New England Patriots (Q2 42:03) — (12:03) 10-M.Jones sacked at MIA 45 for -12 yards (52-E.Roberts). [WPA -12.0% · EPA -3.26]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Miami Dolphins (Q3 18:03) — (3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play [WPA -24.4% · EPA -5.59]
• Miami Dolphins (Q3 16:06) — (1:06) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short left to 31-R.Mostert to MIA 47 for 17 yards (3-J.Peppers, 27-M.Bryant). PENALTY on NE-8-J.Bentley, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 47. [WPA +16.5% · EPA +3.31]
• New England Patriots (Q2 42:03) — (12:03) 10-M.Jones sacked at MIA 45 for -12 yards (52-E.Roberts). [WPA -12.0% · EPA -3.26]
• New England Patriots (Q4 2:34) — (2:34) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at MIA 39 for -10 yards (92-Z.Sieler). [WPA -2.0% · EPA -3.25]

Quarterback report card

M.Jones led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Jones (New England Patriots) · 39 dropbacks · 51.3% completion · -2.4% CPOE · +0.05 EPA/play · +1.94 total EPA
• S.Thompson (Miami Dolphins) · 25 dropbacks · 48.0% completion · -10.0% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -2.17 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Miami Dolphins -0.07, New England Patriots -0.08) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Miami Dolphins: 11 drives, -5.97 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 12 drives, -5.76 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• R. Mostert (Miami Dolphins) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• S. Thompson (MIA) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 52:19 · MIA 7 · Score 0-6
   (7:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 11-T.Thornton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 52:15 · MIA 15 · Score 0-7
   6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
3. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · NE 2 · Score 6-7
   (15:00) 10-T.Hill left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 44:55 · NE 15 · Score 7-7
   7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
5. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q3 24:22 · NE 2 · Score 13-7
   (9:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 31-R.Mostert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-C.Barmore].
6. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q3 24:17 · NE 15 · Score 14-7
   7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
7. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 19:08 · MIA 31 · Score 14-10
   (4:08) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 18:03 · NE 76 · Score 14-16
   (3:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 14-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 39. 23-K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-5-T
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 4:40 · MIA 2 · Score 14-22
   (4:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-16-J.Meyers was injured during the play.
10. New England Patriots TD (+7) — Q4 4:37 · MIA 15 · Score 14-23
    6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
11. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 1:11 · NE 4 · Score 20-23
    (1:11) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 1:04 · NE 15 · Score 21-23
    7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.