Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: 2019 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2019 NFL season on 2019-12-29, the Miami Dolphins took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 27–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Fitzpatrick (Miami Dolphins) paced the passing game, with +14.58 total EPA, and +4.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Fitzpatrick (Miami Dolphins) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.58 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-21.1% win probability) landed in the second quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (10:41) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at NE 35. 21-E.Rowe for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Fitzpatrick · Miami Dolphins · Passing · +14.58 total EPA · 48 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Parker · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +7.51 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
3. 3 J. White · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.61 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.87 EPA/play
4. 4 E. Roberts · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.30 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.30 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Wilson · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +3.09 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
6. 6 I. Ford · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.43 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Gesicki · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.32 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
8. 8 P. Laird · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.32 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Miami Dolphins — E. Rowe (Q2 40:41)
• New England Patriots — S. Michel (Q2 32:10)
• Miami Dolphins — R. Fitzpatrick (Q3 22:48)
• New England Patriots — E. Roberts (T. Brady pass) (Q3 19:35)
• New England Patriots — J. White (T. Brady pass) (Q4 3:59)
• Miami Dolphins — M. Gesicki (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q4 0:29)

Field goals

• Miami Dolphins — J. Sanders (Q1 46:42)
• New England Patriots — N. Folk (Q2 35:54)
• Miami Dolphins — J. Sanders (Q4 8:33)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 3–0. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the NE 9 (Q1 46:42) — (1:42) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–7. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the MIA 69 (Q2 40:41) — (10:41) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at NE 35. 21-E.Rowe for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 40:31) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the MIA 7 (Q2 35:54) — (5:54) 2-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 4 (Q2 32:10); New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q2 32:05) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q3 22:48) — (7:48) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 22:42) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 38 (Q3 19:35); New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q3 19:26) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

The fourth quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 10–7. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the NE 14 (Q4 8:33) — (8:33) 7-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the MIA 13 (Q4 3:59) — (3:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q4 3:53) — 2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the NE 5 (Q4 0:29) — (:29) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 0:24).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q2 40:41) — (10:41) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at NE 35. 21-E.Rowe for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -21.1% · EPA -8.05]
• New England Patriots (Q4 3:59) — (3:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play. [WPA +21.0% · EPA +3.66]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 0:29) — (:29) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +20.7% · EPA +1.54]
• New England Patriots (Q4 5:37) — (5:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 14-M.Sanu Sr. to MIA 10 for 22 yards (40-N.Needham). [WPA +18.4% · EPA +1.82]
• New England Patriots (Q3 19:35) — (4:35) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 52-E.Roberts for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 540th career TD pass, 2nd all-time (Brees 547). NE 12-Brady 77th different [WPA +17.7% · EPA +3.30]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q2 40:41) — (10:41) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at NE 35. 21-E.Rowe for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -21.1% · EPA -8.05]
• New England Patriots (Q4 3:59) — (3:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play. [WPA +21.0% · EPA +3.66]
• New England Patriots (Q2 33:41) — (3:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-P.Dorsett II to MIA 6 for 50 yards (36-A.Colbert). [WPA +7.4% · EPA +3.61]
• New England Patriots (Q3 19:35) — (4:35) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 52-E.Roberts for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 540th career TD pass, 2nd all-time (Brees 547). NE 12-Brady 77th different [WPA +17.7% · EPA +3.30]

Quarterback report card

R.Fitzpatrick led all passers in efficiency for Miami Dolphins, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Fitzpatrick (Miami Dolphins) · 48 dropbacks · 58.3% completion · +4.7% CPOE · +0.30 EPA/play · +14.58 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 34 dropbacks · 47.1% completion · -7.3% CPOE · +0.01 EPA/play · +0.45 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Miami Dolphins generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.10 vs +0.04), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Miami Dolphins: 10 drives, +8.85 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 12 drives, +2.95 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Miami Dolphins leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• R. Fitzpatrick (Miami Dolphins) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Fitzpatrick (MIA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q1 46:42 · NE 9 · Score 3-0
   (1:42) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
2. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 40:41 · MIA 69 · Score 9-0
   (10:41) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at NE 35. 21-E.Rowe for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 40:31 · NE 15 · Score 10-0
   7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
4. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 35:54 · MIA 7 · Score 10-3
   (5:54) 2-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 32:10 · MIA 4 · Score 10-9
   (2:10) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 26-S.Michel left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26-Michel 7th TD of season, new career high. Patriots 13th consec
6. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 32:05 · MIA 15 · Score 10-10
   2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
7. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q3 22:48 · NE 2 · Score 16-10
   (7:48) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q3 22:42 · NE 15 · Score 17-10
   7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 19:35 · MIA 38 · Score 17-16
   (4:35) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 52-E.Roberts for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 540th career TD pass, 2nd all-time
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 19:26 · MIA 15 · Score 17-17
    2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
11. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q4 8:33 · NE 14 · Score 20-17
    (8:33) 7-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
12. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 3:59 · MIA 13 · Score 20-23
    (3:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play.
13. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 3:53 · MIA 15 · Score 20-24
    2-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
14. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 0:29 · NE 5 · Score 26-24
    (:29) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 0:24 · NE 15 · Score 27-24
    7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. PENALTY on NE-71-D.Shelton, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.