Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: 2018 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-30, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 42–17 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) paced the passing game, with -16.00 total EPA, and -5.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.60 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-20.1% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 80-J.Croom INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at BUF 29. 20-R.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +12.60 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
2. 2 Z. Jones · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +6.88 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Ivory · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.26 total EPA · 1 snaps · +5.26 EPA/play
4. 4 K. Drake · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +5.01 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.00 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Foster · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.47 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
6. 6 L. McCoy · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.42 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Stills · Miami Dolphins · Passing · +1.28 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.28 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Tannehill · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +1.28 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.28 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q1 55:17)
• Buffalo Bills — Z. Jones (J. Allen pass) (Q1 53:38)
• Miami Dolphins — R. Tannehill (K. Stills pass) (Q2 31:00)
• Miami Dolphins — R. Jones (Q2 30:48)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Foster (J. Allen pass) (Q3 24:12)
• Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (Q3 22:02)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q4 11:23)
• Buffalo Bills — Z. Jones (J. Allen pass) (Q4 7:51)

Field goals

• Miami Dolphins — J. Sanders (Q3 16:31)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 1 (Q1 55:17) — (10:17) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q1 55:14) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 18 (Q1 53:38) — (8:38) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 11-Z.Jones for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at MIA 15.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q1 53:31) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr..

The second quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 14–0. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q2 31:00); Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 30:54) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the MIA 77 (Q2 30:48); Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 30:39) — 7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 5 (Q3 24:12) — (9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 16-R.Foster for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, near sideline.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q3 24:09) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 9 (Q3 22:02) — (7:02) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q3 21:57) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.; Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the BUF 11 (Q3 16:31) — (1:31) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 30 (Q4 11:23) — (11:23) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q4 11:13) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 26 (Q4 7:51) — (7:51) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 11-Z.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at MIA 2, slanting to corner of end zone.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q4 7:44) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:48) — (:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 80-J.Croom INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at BUF 29. 20-R.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -20.1% · EPA -7.16]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 55:48) — (10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 33-C.Ivory to MIA 1 for 46 yards (20-R.Jones) [47-K.Alonso]. MIA-24-T.McTyer was injured during the play. He is Out. Caught at MIA 35, crossed to middl [WPA +18.2% · EPA +5.26]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 53:49) — (8:49) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds at MIA 35. 49-T.Edmunds to MIA 18 for 17 yards (70-J.James). [WPA -9.5% · EPA -5.10]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 24:12) — (9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 16-R.Foster for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, near sideline. [WPA +8.3% · EPA +2.46]
• Miami Dolphins (Q3 23:56) — (8:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 18 for -8 yards (90-S.Lawson). FUMBLES (90-S.Lawson) [90-S.Lawson], RECOVERED by BUF-97-J.Phillips at MIA 23. [WPA -8.2% · EPA -5.05]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:48) — (:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 80-J.Croom INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at BUF 29. 20-R.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -20.1% · EPA -7.16]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 55:48) — (10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 33-C.Ivory to MIA 1 for 46 yards (20-R.Jones) [47-K.Alonso]. MIA-24-T.McTyer was injured during the play. He is Out. Caught at MIA 35, crossed to middl [WPA +18.2% · EPA +5.26]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 8:14) — (8:14) R.Tannehill at WR. (Shotgun) Direct snap to 27-K.Ballage. 27-K.Ballage FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 47, RECOVERED by BUF-93-T.Murphy at BUF 48. 93-T.Murphy to BUF 48 for no gain (27-K.Ballage). [WPA -0.7% · EPA -5.14]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 53:49) — (8:49) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds at MIA 35. 49-T.Edmunds to MIA 18 for 17 yards (70-J.James). [WPA -9.5% · EPA -5.10]

Quarterback report card

R.Tannehill led all passers in efficiency for Miami Dolphins, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) · 36 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -5.1% CPOE · -0.44 EPA/play · -16.00 total EPA
• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 34 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · +2.2% CPOE · +0.37 EPA/play · +12.60 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Buffalo Bills held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.02 vs -0.33), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 13 drives, +1.65 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• Miami Dolphins: 13 drives, -25.42 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Tannehill (MIA) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 55:17 · MIA 1 · Score 0-6
   (10:17) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 55:14 · MIA 15 · Score 0-7
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 53:38 · MIA 18 · Score 0-13
   (8:38) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 11-Z.Jones for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at MIA 15.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 53:31 · MIA 15 · Score 0-14
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.
5. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 31:00 · BUF 3 · Score 6-14
   (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-K.Stills pass short right to 17-R.Tannehill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Original handoff to K.Drake, who then hands off to K.Stills for pass. Ca
6. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 30:54 · BUF 15 · Score 7-14
   7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
7. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 30:48 · MIA 77 · Score 13-14
   (:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 80-J.Croom INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at BUF 29. 20-R.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 30:39 · BUF 15 · Score 14-14
   7-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
9. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 24:12 · MIA 5 · Score 14-20
   (9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 16-R.Foster for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, near sideline.
10. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 24:09 · MIA 15 · Score 14-21
    4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.
11. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 22:02 · MIA 9 · Score 14-27
    (7:02) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 21:57 · MIA 15 · Score 14-28
    4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.
13. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q3 16:31 · BUF 11 · Score 17-28
    (1:31) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
14. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 11:23 · MIA 30 · Score 17-34
    (11:23) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 11:13 · MIA 15 · Score 17-35
    4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.
16. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 7:51 · MIA 26 · Score 17-41
    (7:51) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 11-Z.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at MIA 2, slanting to corner of end zone.
17. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 7:44 · MIA 15 · Score 17-42
    4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.