Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: 2012 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2012 NFL season on 2012-11-15, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 19–14 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +1.18 total EPA, and -3.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, St. Johnson (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +4.60 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-19.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Miami Dolphins changed the game: (:50) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 15-D.Bess INTERCEPTED by 43-B.Scott at BUF 42. 43-B.Scott to MIA 44 for 14 yards (77-J.Long).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 St. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.60 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.51 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Fitzpatrick · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +1.18 total EPA · 37 snaps · +0.03 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Spiller · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +0.91 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Matthews · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +0.51 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Dickerson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · -0.07 total EPA · 1 snaps · -0.07 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Bush · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · -0.24 total EPA · 3 snaps · -0.08 EPA/play
7. 7 R. Tannehill · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · -0.44 total EPA · 1 snaps · -0.44 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Lane · Miami Dolphins · Rushing · -0.45 total EPA · 1 snaps · -0.45 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — L. McKelvin (Q1 58:49)
• Miami Dolphins — M. Thigpen (Q1 50:07)
• Miami Dolphins — D. Bess (R. Tannehill pass) (Q4 8:48)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q1 50:16)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q1 45:43)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 39:00)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 30:03)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 13–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 72 (Q1 58:49) — (13:49) 2-B.Fields punts 51 yards to BUF 21, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-L.McKelvin for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key blocks: C.McIntyre.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q1 58:30) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 14 (Q1 50:16) — (5:16) 9-R.Lindell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 35 (Q1 50:07) — 9-R.Lindell kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to MIA 4. 34-M.Thigpen for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 49:55) — 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 16 (Q1 45:43) — (:43) 9-R.Lindell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 24 (Q2 39:00) — (9:00) 9-R.Lindell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 1 (Q2 30:03) — (:03) 9-R.Lindell 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell..

The fourth quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 7–0. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q4 8:48); Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 8:42) — 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Miami Dolphins (Q4 0:50) — (:50) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 15-D.Bess INTERCEPTED by 43-B.Scott at BUF 42. 43-B.Scott to MIA 44 for 14 yards (77-J.Long). [WPA -19.1% · EPA -2.11]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:34) — (1:34) 6-S.Powell punts 41 yards to MIA 16, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-51-C.White. S.Powell ties club record with 5 punts inside-the-20. [WPA -13.4% · EPA -0.09]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 58:49) — (13:49) 2-B.Fields punts 51 yards to BUF 21, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-L.McKelvin for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key blocks: C.McIntyre. [WPA -12.7% · EPA -5.20]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 15-D.Bess INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Byrd at BUF 35. 31-J.Byrd ran ob at BUF 35 for no gain. The Replay Assistant challenged the incomplete pass ru [WPA -12.5% · EPA -2.03]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 8:48) — (8:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 15-D.Bess. Caught out of bounds in front corner of end zone. Miami challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Sho [WPA +10.8% · EPA +2.24]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Miami Dolphins (Q1 50:07) — 9-R.Lindell kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to MIA 4. 34-M.Thigpen for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.6% · EPA +6.86]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 58:49) — (13:49) 2-B.Fields punts 51 yards to BUF 21, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-L.McKelvin for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key blocks: C.McIntyre. [WPA -12.7% · EPA -5.20]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 54:06) — (9:06) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 82-B.Hartline to 50 for 17 yards (27-S.Gilmore). FUMBLES (27-S.Gilmore), RECOVERED by BUF-31-J.Byrd at BUF 48. 31-J.Byrd to MIA 47 for 5 yards (71-J.Martin). [WPA -8.0% · EPA -3.78]
• Miami Dolphins (Q3 16:47) — (1:47) 5-D.Carpenter 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields. [WPA -2.8% · EPA -3.54]

Quarterback report card

R.Fitzpatrick led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 37 dropbacks · 45.9% completion · -3.3% CPOE · +0.03 EPA/play · +1.18 total EPA
• R.Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) · 34 dropbacks · 41.2% completion · -7.8% CPOE · -0.19 EPA/play · -6.37 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Miami Dolphins -0.09, Buffalo Bills -0.04) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 13 drives, -3.55 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Miami Dolphins: 12 drives, -6.98 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• St. Johnson (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Fitzpatrick (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• R. Tannehill (MIA) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 58:49 · BUF 72 · Score 0-6
   (13:49) 2-B.Fields punts 51 yards to BUF 21, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-L.McKelvin for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key blocks: C.McIntyre.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 58:30 · MIA 2 · Score 0-7
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 50:16 · MIA 14 · Score 0-10
   (5:16) 9-R.Lindell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
4. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q1 50:07 · BUF 35 · Score 6-10
   9-R.Lindell kicks 61 yards from BUF 35 to MIA 4. 34-M.Thigpen for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q1 49:55 · BUF 2 · Score 7-10
   5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
6. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 45:43 · MIA 16 · Score 7-13
   (:43) 9-R.Lindell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
7. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 39:00 · MIA 24 · Score 7-16
   (9:00) 9-R.Lindell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
8. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:03 · MIA 1 · Score 7-19
   (:03) 9-R.Lindell 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
9. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 8:48 · BUF 2 · Score 13-19
   (8:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 15-D.Bess. Caught out of bounds in front corner of end zone. Miami challenged the incomplete pass
10. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 8:42 · BUF 2 · Score 14-19
    5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.