Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season on 2022-12-24, the Pittsburgh Steelers took care of business against the Las Vegas Raiders, pulling away with a 13–10 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 16 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

K. Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers) paced the passing game, with +0.76 total EPA, and +1.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Johnson (Pittsburgh Steelers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.77 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+23.9% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Pittsburgh Steelers changed the game: (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Johnson · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +5.77 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.82 EPA/play
2. 2 G. Pickens · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +5.10 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.02 EPA/play
3. 3 K. Pickett · Pittsburgh Steelers · Rushing · +2.87 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.43 EPA/play
4. 4 H. Renfrow · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +2.81 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Waller · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +2.80 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.56 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Abdullah · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +2.54 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
7. 7 P. Freiermuth · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +1.59 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.20 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Warren · Pittsburgh Steelers · Receiving · +0.80 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Las Vegas Raiders — H. Renfrow (D. Carr pass) (Q1 51:46)
• Pittsburgh Steelers — G. Pickens (K. Pickett pass) (Q4 0:50)

Field goals

• Pittsburgh Steelers — C. Boswell (Q2 31:53)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Carlson (Q2 30:09)
• Pittsburgh Steelers — C. Boswell (Q4 9:52)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 7–0. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the PIT 14 (Q1 51:46) — (6:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the PIT 15 (Q1 51:38) — 2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Pittsburgh Steelers connected on a field goal from the LV 26 (Q2 31:53) — (1:53) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the PIT 22 (Q2 30:09) — (:09) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole..

The fourth quarter: Pittsburgh Steelers won the period 16–0. Pittsburgh Steelers connected on a field goal from the LV 22 (Q4 9:52) — (9:52) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.; Pittsburgh Steelers found the end zone from the LV 14 (Q4 0:50) — (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Pittsburgh Steelers found the end zone from the LV 15 (Q4 0:46) — 9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q4 0:50) — (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +23.9% · EPA +2.59]
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q4 1:38) — (1:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 22-N.Harris to LV 24 for 19 yards (27-S.Webb). [WPA +16.7% · EPA +1.59]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 0:36) — (:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 13-H.Renfrow INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Sutton [99-L.Ogunjobi] at PIT 34. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 34 for no gain (13-H.Renfrow). PENALTY on PIT, Unsportsmanl [WPA -14.2% · EPA -0.29]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q2 30:32) — (:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 83-D.Waller to PIT 22 for 34 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick). PIT-21-T.Norwood was injured during the play. [WPA +11.6% · EPA +2.69]
• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q3 26:57) — (11:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left intended for 83-Co.Heyward INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Perryman at LV 29. 52-D.Perryman to PIT 47 for 24 yards (22-N.Harris, 76-C.Okorafor). [WPA -11.5% · EPA -5.88]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Pittsburgh Steelers (Q3 26:57) — (11:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left intended for 83-Co.Heyward INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Perryman at LV 29. 52-D.Perryman to PIT 47 for 24 yards (22-N.Harris, 76-C.Okorafor). [WPA -11.5% · EPA -5.88]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q3 26:48) — (11:48) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 35-A.Maulet at PIT 32. 35-A.Maulet to PIT 44 for 12 yards (28-J.Jacobs). [WPA -11.4% · EPA -5.47]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q3 19:44) — (4:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 13-H.Renfrow INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at PIT 29. 39-M.Fitzpatrick to PIT 29 for no gain (13-H.Renfrow). [WPA -6.4% · EPA -3.76]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1 51:46) — (6:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.0% · EPA +3.32]

Quarterback report card

K.Pickett led all passers in efficiency for Pittsburgh Steelers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• K.Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers) · 41 dropbacks · 63.4% completion · +1.8% CPOE · +0.02 EPA/play · +0.76 total EPA
• D.Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) · 35 dropbacks · 45.7% completion · -13.7% CPOE · -0.15 EPA/play · -5.19 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Pittsburgh Steelers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (-0.11 vs -0.17), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Las Vegas Raiders: 10 drives, -11.16 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 11 drives, -8.49 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Pittsburgh Steelers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Johnson (Pittsburgh Steelers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Carr (LV) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q1 51:46 · PIT 14 · Score 6-0
   (6:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q1 51:38 · PIT 15 · Score 7-0
   2-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers FG (+3) — Q2 31:53 · LV 26 · Score 7-3
   (1:53) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
4. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q2 30:09 · PIT 22 · Score 10-3
   (:09) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers FG (+3) — Q4 9:52 · LV 22 · Score 10-6
   (9:52) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers TD (+6) — Q4 0:50 · LV 14 · Score 10-12
   (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers TD (+7) — Q4 0:46 · LV 15 · Score 10-13
   9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.