Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2013 NFL season on 2014-01-04, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Kansas City Chiefs, pulling away with a 45–44 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 31 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with +15.73 total EPA, and +8.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.73 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+32.0% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (4:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Smith · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +15.73 total EPA · 55 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Luck · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +13.47 total EPA · 50 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Bowe · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +9.51 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.73 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +9.29 total EPA · 18 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Avery · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +6.33 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.11 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Fleener · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.40 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Luck · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +3.31 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Brown · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +3.23 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — D. Bowe (A. Smith pass) (Q1 53:15)
• Indianapolis Colts — T. Hilton (A. Luck pass) (Q1 49:38)
• Kansas City Chiefs — D. Avery (A. Smith pass) (Q2 44:49)
• Kansas City Chiefs — A. Sherman (A. Smith pass) (Q2 43:10)
• Kansas City Chiefs — K. Davis (Q2 31:55)
• Kansas City Chiefs — K. Davis (A. Smith pass) (Q3 28:44)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Brown (Q3 26:52)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Brown (A. Luck pass) (Q3 22:36)
• Indianapolis Colts — C. Fleener (A. Luck pass) (Q3 17:34)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Brown (Q4 10:45)
• Indianapolis Colts — T. Hilton (A. Luck pass) (Q4 4:29)

Field goals

• Kansas City Chiefs — R. Succop (Q1 45:57)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 39:18)
• Kansas City Chiefs — R. Succop (Q3 19:17)
• Kansas City Chiefs — R. Succop (Q4 5:40)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 10–7. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the IND 6 (Q1 53:15) — (8:15) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 82-D.Bowe for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 53:11) — 6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the KC 10 (Q1 49:38) — (4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the KC 2 (Q1 49:34) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the IND 1 (Q1 45:57) — (:57) 6-R.Succop 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 21–3. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the IND 79 (Q2 44:49) — (14:49) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 17-D.Avery for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 44:39) — 6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the IND 5 (Q2 43:10) — (13:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 42-A.Sherman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 43:05) — 6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the KC 19 (Q2 39:18) — (9:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the IND 4 (Q2 31:55) — (1:55) (Shotgun) 34-K.Davis up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 31:51) — 6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 21–10. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the IND 10 (Q3 28:44) — (13:44) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 34-K.Davis for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 28:39) — 6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the KC 10 (Q3 26:52) — (11:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-D.Brown up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the KC 2 (Q3 26:47) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the KC 3 (Q3 22:36); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the KC 2 (Q3 22:32) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the IND 24 (Q3 19:17) — (4:17) 6-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the KC 12 (Q3 17:34) — (2:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 80-C.Fleener for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the KC 2 (Q3 17:31) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–3. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the KC 2 (Q4 10:45); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the KC 2 (Q4 10:38) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the IND 25 (Q4 5:40) — (5:40) 6-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the KC 64 (Q4 4:29) — (4:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the KC 2 (Q4 4:21) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 4:29) — (4:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +32.0% · EPA +5.56]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 82-D.Bowe. [WPA -23.3% · EPA -0.51]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 44:49) — (14:49) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 17-D.Avery for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +21.1% · EPA +7.85]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 2:30) — (2:30) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short right [90-C.Redding]. PENALTY on KC-11-A.Smith, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 39. [WPA -20.5% · EPA -1.23]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 48:26) — (3:26) (Run formation) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 82-D.Bowe to IND 2 for 63 yards (41-A.Bethea). [WPA +16.9% · EPA +5.30]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 44:49) — (14:49) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 17-D.Avery for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +21.1% · EPA +7.85]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 24:11) — (9:11) (Run formation) 11-A.Smith sacked at KC 46 for -8 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis) [98-R.Mathis], RECOVERED by IND-52-K.Sheppard at KC 41. 52-K.Sheppard ran ob at KC 41 for no gain. K [WPA -4.1% · EPA -5.79]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 44:39) — (14:39) 34-T.Richardson left end to IND 20 for no gain (91-T.Hali). FUMBLES (91-T.Hali), RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at IND 24. 50-J.Houston to IND 17 for 7 yards (12-A.Luck). [WPA -7.6% · EPA -5.62]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 30:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right intended for 31-D.Brown INTERCEPTED by 39-H.Abdullah at IND 22. 39-H.Abdullah to IND 18 for 4 yards (31-D.Brown). [WPA -4.2% · EPA -5.57]

Quarterback report card

A.Smith led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) · 55 dropbacks · 54.5% completion · +8.3% CPOE · +0.29 EPA/play · +15.73 total EPA
• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 50 dropbacks · 58.0% completion · +3.0% CPOE · +0.27 EPA/play · +13.47 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Kansas City Chiefs +0.19, Indianapolis Colts +0.20) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 13 drives, +16.74 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 13 drives, +19.72 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Smith (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 53:15 · IND 6 · Score 6-0
   (8:15) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 82-D.Bowe for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q1 53:11 · IND 2 · Score 7-0
   6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
3. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 49:38 · KC 10 · Score 7-6
   (4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 49:34 · KC 2 · Score 7-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
5. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q1 45:57 · IND 1 · Score 10-7
   (:57) 6-R.Succop 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
6. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 44:49 · IND 79 · Score 16-7
   (14:49) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 17-D.Avery for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 44:39 · IND 2 · Score 17-7
   6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
8. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 43:10 · IND 5 · Score 23-7
   (13:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 42-A.Sherman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 43:05 · IND 2 · Score 24-7
   6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
10. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 39:18 · KC 19 · Score 24-10
    (9:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
11. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 31:55 · IND 4 · Score 30-10
    (1:55) (Shotgun) 34-K.Davis up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 31:51 · IND 2 · Score 31-10
    6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
13. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 28:44 · IND 10 · Score 37-10
    (13:44) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 34-K.Davis for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q3 28:39 · IND 2 · Score 38-10
    6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
15. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 26:52 · KC 10 · Score 38-16
    (11:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-D.Brown up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 26:47 · KC 2 · Score 38-17
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
17. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 22:36 · KC 3 · Score 38-23
    (7:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 31-D.Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-24-B.Flowers was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
18. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 22:32 · KC 2 · Score 38-24
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
19. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q3 19:17 · IND 24 · Score 41-24
    (4:17) 6-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
20. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 17:34 · KC 12 · Score 41-30
    (2:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 80-C.Fleener for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 17:31 · KC 2 · Score 41-31
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
22. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 10:45 · KC 2 · Score 41-37
    (10:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-D.Brown up the middle to KC 2 for no gain (29-E.Berry). FUMBLES (29-E.Berry), recovered by IND-12-A.Luck at KC 5. 12-A.Luck for
23. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 10:38 · KC 2 · Score 41-38
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
24. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 5:40 · IND 25 · Score 44-38
    (5:40) 6-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
25. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 4:29 · KC 64 · Score 44-44
    (4:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
26. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 4:21 · KC 2 · Score 44-45
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.