Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: 2018 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-10-01, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 27–23 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with +9.19 total EPA, and -1.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.19 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+23.9% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Kansas City Chiefs changed the game: (2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris ran ob at DEN 11 for 35 yards.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +9.19 total EPA · 53 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Hunt · Kansas City Chiefs · Rushing · +8.46 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
3. 3 K. Hunt · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +5.01 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.25 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Freeman · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +4.72 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Harris · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +4.70 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.57 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +3.31 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Janovich · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +1.76 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.76 EPA/play
8. 8 P. Lindsay · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +1.60 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — P. Mahomes (Q2 39:42)
• Denver Broncos — R. Freeman (Q2 36:47)
• Denver Broncos — P. Lindsay (Q3 17:09)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Kelce (P. Mahomes pass) (Q4 6:30)
• Kansas City Chiefs — K. Hunt (Q4 1:43)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q1 56:38)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q1 51:07)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q2 30:04)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q3 24:35)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q4 12:52)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the KC 24 (Q1 56:38) — (11:38) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the DEN 15 (Q1 51:07) — (6:07) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The second quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 10–7. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the DEN 8 (Q2 39:42) — (9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 39:33) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the KC 14 (Q2 36:47) — (6:47) 28-R.Freeman right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 36:37) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the KC 16 (Q2 30:04) — (:04) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King..

The third quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–3. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the DEN 3 (Q3 24:35) — (9:35) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the KC 1 (Q3 17:09) — (2:09) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-E.Murray, Defensive Offside, declined.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q3 17:05) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King..

The fourth quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 14–3. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the KC 28 (Q4 12:52) — (12:52) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the DEN 2 (Q4 6:30) — (6:30) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q4 6:27) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the DEN 4 (Q4 1:43) — (1:43) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q4 1:39) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 2:03) — (2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris ran ob at DEN 11 for 35 yards. [WPA +23.9% · EPA +3.04]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 0:16) — (:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to KC 19 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at KC 25. 50-J.Houston to KC 25 for no gain (72-G.Bolles). The Replay Official rev [WPA -17.1% · EPA -1.57]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 0:56) — (:56) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 82-J.Heuerman to KC 28 for 36 yards (38-R.Parker) [25-A.Watts]. [WPA +16.6% · EPA +1.87]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 26:34) — (11:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 3 for 29 yards (29-B.Roby). [WPA +15.5% · EPA +3.89]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 1:02) — (1:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 10-E.Sanders pushed ob at DEN 36 for 12 yards (22-O.Scandrick). [WPA +13.9% · EPA +0.98]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q3 24:25) — (9:25) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right intended for 82-J.Heuerman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Murray at KC 43. 21-E.Murray to KC 43 for no gain (82-J.Heuerman). [WPA -7.3% · EPA -3.91]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 26:34) — (11:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 3 for 29 yards (29-B.Roby). [WPA +15.5% · EPA +3.89]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 42:48) — (12:48) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left tackle pushed ob at DEN 22 for 45 yards (24-A.Jones). [WPA +12.5% · EPA +3.53]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 10:18) — (10:18) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 27-K.Hunt to DEN 32 for 22 yards (31-J.Simmons). [WPA +7.1% · EPA +3.37]

Quarterback report card

P.Mahomes led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 53 dropbacks · 52.8% completion · -1.0% CPOE · +0.17 EPA/play · +9.19 total EPA
• C.Keenum (Denver Broncos) · 38 dropbacks · 55.3% completion · +0.6% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -3.27 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Kansas City Chiefs generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.13 vs +0.06), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Denver Broncos: 10 drives, +4.62 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 10 drives, +12.41 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 56:38 · KC 24 · Score 0-3
   (11:38) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.
2. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q1 51:07 · DEN 15 · Score 3-3
   (6:07) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
3. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 39:42 · DEN 8 · Score 9-3
   (9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 39:33 · DEN 15 · Score 10-3
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
5. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 36:47 · KC 14 · Score 10-9
   (6:47) 28-R.Freeman right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 36:37 · KC 15 · Score 10-10
   8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.
7. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 30:04 · KC 16 · Score 10-13
   (:04) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.
8. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q3 24:35 · DEN 3 · Score 13-13
   (9:35) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
9. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q3 17:09 · KC 1 · Score 13-19
   (2:09) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-E.Murray, Defensive Offside, declined.
10. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q3 17:05 · KC 15 · Score 13-20
    8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.
11. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q4 12:52 · KC 28 · Score 13-23
    (12:52) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.
12. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 6:30 · DEN 2 · Score 19-23
    (6:30) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 6:27 · DEN 15 · Score 20-23
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
14. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 1:43 · DEN 4 · Score 26-23
    (1:43) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 1:39 · DEN 15 · Score 27-23
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.