Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-27, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 30–27 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 22 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with -5.46 total EPA, and -3.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Siemian (Denver Broncos) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +19.00 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-39.3% win probability) landed in overtime when Denver Broncos changed the game: (8:55) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Siemian · Denver Broncos · Passing · +19.00 total EPA · 45 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
2. 2 E. Sanders · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +11.99 total EPA · 10 snaps · +1.20 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Fowler · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +5.25 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.63 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Hill · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +4.60 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.46 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Thomas · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +4.17 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Derby · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +3.41 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +2.70 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Booker · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.32 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.16 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Hill (Q2 36:16)
• Denver Broncos — J. Taylor (T. Siemian pass) (Q3 22:48)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Hill (Q3 15:37)
• Denver Broncos — E. Sanders (T. Siemian pass) (Q4 7:53)
• Denver Broncos — B. Fowler (T. Siemian pass) (Q4 3:12)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Hill (A. Smith pass) (Q4 0:15)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q2 31:51)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (OT 8:55)
• Kansas City Chiefs — C. Santos (OT 4:23)
• Kansas City Chiefs — C. Santos (OT 0:05)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 9–3. Kansas City Chiefs registered a safety from the KC 92 (Q2 36:20); Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the DEN 20 (Q2 36:16) — 9-R.Dixon kicks 66 yards from DEN 20 to KC 14. 10-T.Hill for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 36:04) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the KC 15 (Q2 31:51) — (1:51) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the KC 6 (Q3 22:48) — (7:48) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 87-J.Taylor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q3 22:37) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the DEN 3 (Q3 15:37) — (:37) (Shotgun) 10-T.Hill right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q3 15:30) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The fourth quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 14–8. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the KC 35 (Q4 7:53) — (7:53) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-R.Parker, Illegal Contact, declined.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 7:47) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the KC 76 (Q4 3:12) — (3:12) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left to 16-B.Fowler for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 3:00) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the DEN 3 (Q4 0:15); Kansas City Chiefs registered a safety from the DEN 2 (Q4 0:12) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 11-A.Smith pass to 84-D.Harris is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Overtime: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 6–3. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the KC 26 (OT 8:55) — (8:55) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the DEN 19 (OT 4:23) — (4:23) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the DEN 16 (OT 0:05) — (:05) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Denver Broncos (OT 8:55) — (8:55) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon. [WPA -39.3% · EPA +1.00]
• Kansas City Chiefs (OT 0:37) — (:37) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 16 for 16 yards (31-J.Simmons). [WPA +38.2% · EPA +0.76]
• Kansas City Chiefs (OT 4:23) — (4:23) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. [WPA -29.3% · EPA +0.45]
• Denver Broncos (OT 1:08) — (1:08) 8-B.McManus 62 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon. [WPA +25.3% · EPA -1.46]
• Denver Broncos (OT 12:22) — (12:22) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 23-D.Booker to KC 30 for 22 yards (56-D.Johnson). [WPA +25.3% · EPA +2.42]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q4 3:12) — (3:12) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left to 16-B.Fowler for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +22.4% · EPA +6.92]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 36:16) — 9-R.Dixon kicks 66 yards from DEN 20 to KC 14. 10-T.Hill for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.4% · EPA +5.95]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 12:29) — (12:29) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to KC 48, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-41-J.Winchester at KC 41. 41-J.Winchester to KC 41 for no gain (87-J.Taylor). [WPA +15.9% · EPA +4.80]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 7:53) — (7:53) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-R.Parker, Illegal Contact, declined. [WPA +24.7% · EPA +3.75]

Quarterback report card

A.Smith led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) · 57 dropbacks · 45.6% completion · -3.8% CPOE · -0.10 EPA/play · -5.46 total EPA
• T.Siemian (Denver Broncos) · 45 dropbacks · 44.4% completion · +5.1% CPOE · +0.42 EPA/play · +19.00 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Kansas City Chiefs +0.10, Denver Broncos +0.08) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Denver Broncos: 15 drives, +8.22 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 15 drives, +10.41 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Siemian (Denver Broncos) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Smith (KC) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• T. Siemian (DEN) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs Safety (+2) — Q2 36:20 · KC 92 · Score 2-0
   (6:20) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian sacked at DEN 0 for -8 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston) [50-J.Houston], recovered by DEN-73-R.Okung at DEN -5. 73-R.Ok
2. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 36:16 · DEN 20 · Score 8-0
   9-R.Dixon kicks 66 yards from DEN 20 to KC 14. 10-T.Hill for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 36:04 · DEN 15 · Score 9-0
   5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
4. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 31:51 · KC 15 · Score 9-3
   (1:51) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
5. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q3 22:48 · KC 6 · Score 9-9
   (7:48) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 87-J.Taylor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q3 22:37 · KC 15 · Score 9-10
   8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
7. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 15:37 · DEN 3 · Score 15-10
   (:37) (Shotgun) 10-T.Hill right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q3 15:30 · DEN 15 · Score 16-10
   5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
9. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 7:53 · KC 35 · Score 16-16
   (7:53) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-R.Parker, Illegal Contact, declined.
10. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 7:47 · KC 15 · Score 16-17
    8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
11. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 3:12 · KC 76 · Score 16-23
    (3:12) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left to 16-B.Fowler for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 3:00 · KC 15 · Score 16-24
    8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
13. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 0:15 · DEN 3 · Score 22-24
    (:15) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 10-T.Hill to DEN 1 for 2 yards (29-B.Roby). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, an
14. Kansas City Chiefs Safety (+2) — Q4 0:12 · DEN 2 · Score 24-24
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 11-A.Smith pass to 84-D.Harris is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
15. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — OT 8:55 · KC 26 · Score 24-27
    (8:55) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
16. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — OT 4:23 · DEN 19 · Score 27-27
    (4:23) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
17. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — OT 0:05 · DEN 16 · Score 30-27
    (:05) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.