Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears: 2019 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season on 2019-12-22, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Chicago Bears, pulling away with a 26–3 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 10 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Trubisky (Chicago Bears) paced the passing game, with -10.35 total EPA, and -11.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.08 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+11.2% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Kansas City Chiefs changed the game: (3:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to CHI 28 for 19 yards (24-B.Skrine).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +17.08 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Hill · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +7.14 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.43 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +4.19 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
4. 4 Dam. Williams · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +2.85 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Horsted · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +2.19 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.19 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Ware · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +1.79 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Patterson · Chicago Bears · Rushing · +1.61 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.61 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Holtz · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +1.24 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — P. Mahomes (Q1 46:37)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Kelce (P. Mahomes pass) (Q2 30:56)
• Kansas City Chiefs — P. Mahomes (Q4 10:11)

Field goals

• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 41:46)
• Chicago Bears — E. Pineiro (Q3 15:03)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q4 1:44)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the CHI 12 (Q1 46:37) — (1:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the CHI 15 (Q1 46:30) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 10–0. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the CHI 39 (Q2 41:46) — (11:46) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the CHI 6 (Q2 30:56) — (:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the CHI 15 (Q2 30:52) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The third quarter: Chicago Bears won the period 3–0. Chicago Bears connected on a field goal from the KC 28 (Q3 15:03) — (:03) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell..

The fourth quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 9–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the CHI 14 (Q4 10:11) — (10:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the CHI 14 (Q4 1:44) — (1:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 48:32) — (3:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to CHI 28 for 19 yards (24-B.Skrine). [WPA +11.2% · EPA +3.29]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 46:37) — (1:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.4% · EPA +2.78]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 53:40) — (8:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins to KC 35 for 17 yards (23-K.Fuller). [WPA +7.4% · EPA +2.47]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 49:19) — (4:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at CHI 47 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). [WPA -7.1% · EPA -1.62]
• Chicago Bears (Q1 57:16) — (12:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles right tackle to 50 for 8 yards (49-D.Sorensen). [WPA +5.2% · EPA +1.69]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 10:11) — (10:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +2.2% · EPA +3.40]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 48:32) — (3:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to CHI 28 for 19 yards (24-B.Skrine). [WPA +11.2% · EPA +3.29]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 41:46) — (11:46) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. [WPA +3.5% · EPA +2.90]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 46:37) — (1:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.4% · EPA +2.78]

Quarterback report card

M.Trubisky led all passers in efficiency for Chicago Bears, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Trubisky (Chicago Bears) · 41 dropbacks · 43.9% completion · -11.6% CPOE · -0.25 EPA/play · -10.35 total EPA
• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 39 dropbacks · 59.0% completion · +5.7% CPOE · +0.44 EPA/play · +17.08 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Kansas City Chiefs generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.22 vs -0.13), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Chicago Bears: 8 drives, -10.34 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 8 drives, +17.47 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Trubisky (CHI) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• P. Mahomes (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 46:37 · CHI 12 · Score 6-0
   (1:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q1 46:30 · CHI 15 · Score 7-0
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
3. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 41:46 · CHI 39 · Score 10-0
   (11:46) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
4. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 30:56 · CHI 6 · Score 16-0
   (:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 30:52 · CHI 15 · Score 17-0
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
6. Chicago Bears FG (+3) — Q3 15:03 · KC 28 · Score 17-3
   (:03) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
7. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 10:11 · CHI 14 · Score 23-3
   (10:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 1:44 · CHI 14 · Score 26-3
   (1:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.