Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots: 2015 Week 3 Recap

Game story

In Week 3 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-09-27, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 51–17 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +25.82 total EPA, and +10.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +25.82 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-9.9% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (2:00) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 16. 32-D.McCourty to NE 43 for 27 yards (61-S.Wisniewski).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +25.82 total EPA · 48 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Hurns · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +7.36 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.84 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Bortles · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +7.18 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Amendola · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.99 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.20 EPA/play
5. 5 L. Blount · New England Patriots · Rushing · +5.38 total EPA · 18 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Chandler · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.94 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.47 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Edelman · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.52 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.40 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — D. Lewis (Q1 56:59)
• New England Patriots — D. Amendola (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:22)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q3 24:07)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — A. Hurns (B. Bortles pass) (Q3 21:25)
• New England Patriots — K. Martin (T. Brady pass) (Q3 18:25)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q4 15:00)
• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q4 3:34)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Harbor (B. Bortles pass) (Q4 1:27)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 48:00)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Myers (Q2 39:37)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 33:45)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 25:55)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 8 (Q1 56:59) — (11:59) 33-D.Lewis right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 56:55) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the JAX 28 (Q1 48:00) — (3:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the NE 22 (Q2 39:37) — (9:37) 2-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the JAX 2 (Q2 33:45) — (3:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q2 30:22) — (:22) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 400 career TD passes, 4th most all-time.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 30:18) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 17–7. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the JAX 28 (Q3 25:55) — (10:55) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q3 24:07) — (9:07) 69-S.Mason reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q3 24:04); Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NE 59 (Q3 21:25) — (6:25) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 21:15) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 13 (Q3 18:25) — (3:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 82-K.Martin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q3 18:18) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 423rd consecutive PAT, new NFL record..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 69-S.Mason reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 14:57) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q4 3:34) — (3:34) 29-L.Blount right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 35 1st downs ties franchise record (10/7/12 vs Denver); New England Patriots added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 3:31) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the NE 6 (Q4 1:27) — (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 86-C.Harbor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 1:22) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 16. 32-D.McCourty to NE 43 for 27 yards (61-S.Wisniewski). [WPA -9.9% · EPA -4.17]
• New England Patriots (Q1 57:42) — (12:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to JAX 8 for 43 yards (26-J.Evans). [WPA +7.6% · EPA +2.43]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 54:48) — (9:48) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 86-C.Harbor to NE 44 for 26 yards (30-D.Harmon). [WPA +5.6% · EPA +2.97]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 42:54) — (12:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 88-A.Hurns to NE 28 for 11 yards (26-L.Ryan). [WPA +5.5% · EPA +2.00]
• New England Patriots (Q1 56:59) — (11:59) 33-D.Lewis right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +4.6% · EPA +2.17]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 21:25) — (6:25) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +1.6% · EPA +6.49]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 16. 32-D.McCourty to NE 43 for 27 yards (61-S.Wisniewski). [WPA -9.9% · EPA -4.17]
• New England Patriots (Q3 24:36) — (9:36) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 17-A.Dobson. PENALTY on JAX-25-P.Thompson, Defensive Pass Interference, 52 yards, enforced at NE 23 - No Play. [WPA +0.6% · EPA +3.60]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 54:48) — (9:48) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 86-C.Harbor to NE 44 for 26 yards (30-D.Harmon). [WPA +5.6% · EPA +2.97]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 48 dropbacks · 68.8% completion · +10.1% CPOE · +0.54 EPA/play · +25.82 total EPA
• B.Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 38 dropbacks · 44.7% completion · -5.3% CPOE · +0.19 EPA/play · +7.18 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.37 vs +0.01), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 drives, +0.41 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +34.90 total EPA, 9 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• B. Bortles (JAX) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 56:59 · JAX 8 · Score 0-6
   (11:59) 33-D.Lewis right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 56:55 · JAX 15 · Score 0-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 48:00 · JAX 28 · Score 0-10
   (3:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 39:37 · NE 22 · Score 3-10
   (9:37) 2-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
5. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 33:45 · JAX 2 · Score 3-13
   (3:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
6. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 30:22 · JAX 1 · Score 3-19
   (:22) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 400 career TD passes, 4th most all-time.
7. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 30:18 · JAX 15 · Score 3-20
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
8. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 25:55 · JAX 28 · Score 3-23
   (10:55) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 24:07 · JAX 1 · Score 3-29
   (9:07) 69-S.Mason reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 24:04 · JAX 15 · Score 3-30
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 422nd consecutive PAT, ties NFL record (Matt Stover).
11. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 21:25 · NE 59 · Score 9-30
    (6:25) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 21:15 · NE 15 · Score 10-30
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 18:25 · JAX 13 · Score 10-36
    (3:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 82-K.Martin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 18:18 · JAX 15 · Score 10-37
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 423rd consecutive PAT, new NFL record.
15. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · JAX 1 · Score 10-43
    (15:00) 69-S.Mason reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
16. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 14:57 · JAX 15 · Score 10-44
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
17. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 3:34 · JAX 1 · Score 10-50
    (3:34) 29-L.Blount right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 35 1st downs ties franchise record (10/7/12 vs Denver)
18. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 3:31 · JAX 15 · Score 10-51
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 1:27 · NE 6 · Score 16-51
    (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 86-C.Harbor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 1:22 · NE 15 · Score 17-51
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.