Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2024 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season on 2025-01-05, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 26–23 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 19 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Flacco (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with -0.61 total EPA, and -7.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, B. Strange (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +6.48 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-40.1% win probability) landed in overtime when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Strange · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +6.48 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.62 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Pierce · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.49 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.74 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Taylor · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +4.58 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Downs · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.48 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Johnson · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +2.95 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.47 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Thomas · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.93 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Jones · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +2.26 total EPA · 37 snaps · +0.06 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Pittman · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.65 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Pierce (J. Flacco pass) (Q1 58:56)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — T. Bigsby (Q1 53:16)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Taylor (Q2 39:36)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — P. Washington (M. Jones pass) (Q4 7:57)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Little (Q2 44:22)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Gay (Q2 33:27)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Little (Q2 31:28)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Gay (Q2 30:17)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Gay (Q4 3:57)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Little (Q4 1:49)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Gay (OT 5:27)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 40 (Q1 58:56) — (13:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 58:50) — 7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q1 53:16) — (8:16) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q1 53:12) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 13–6. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 35 (Q2 44:22) — (14:22) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 6 (Q2 39:36) — (9:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 39:32) — 7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 31 (Q2 33:27) — (3:27) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 9 (Q2 31:28) — (1:28) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 18 (Q2 30:17) — (:17) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 10–3. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 9 (Q4 7:57); Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q4 7:50) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 27 (Q4 3:57) — (3:57) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 35 (Q4 1:49) — (1:49) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

Overtime: Indianapolis Colts won the period 3–0. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 20 (OT 5:27) — (5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (OT 5:27) — (5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. [WPA -40.1% · EPA +0.47]
• Indianapolis Colts (OT 9:49) — (9:49) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce pushed ob at IND 47 for 17 yards (3-T.Campbell). [WPA +22.9% · EPA +2.33]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (OT 4:02) — (4:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at JAX 18 for -16 yards (44-Z.Franklin). [WPA -20.2% · EPA -1.69]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (OT 3:20) — (3:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas to JAX 38 for 20 yards (33-S.Womack). [WPA -17.2% · EPA +1.17]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 3:57) — (3:57) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. [WPA +12.3% · EPA +0.93]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 47:22) — (2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at IND 48 for 0 yards (22-J.Jones). [WPA -5.5% · EPA -3.43]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 17:47) — (2:47) 7-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. [WPA -5.3% · EPA -3.40]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 10:12) — (10:12) (Shotgun) 2-D.Johnson up the middle to IND 15 for 22 yards (32-J.Blackmon, 40-J.Jones). [WPA +10.7% · EPA +3.16]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 58:56) — (13:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.8% · EPA +3.16]

Quarterback report card

J.Flacco led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Flacco (Indianapolis Colts) · 44 dropbacks · 52.3% completion · -7.9% CPOE · -0.01 EPA/play · -0.61 total EPA
• M.Jones (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 37 dropbacks · 54.1% completion · -2.7% CPOE · +0.06 EPA/play · +2.26 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Jacksonville Jaguars +0.06, Indianapolis Colts +0.05) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 13 drives, +4.78 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 13 drives, +5.01 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• B. Strange (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Flacco (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 58:56 · JAX 40 · Score 0-6
   (13:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 58:50 · JAX 15 · Score 0-7
   7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 53:16 · IND 1 · Score 6-7
   (8:16) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 53:12 · IND 15 · Score 7-7
   39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 44:22 · IND 35 · Score 10-7
   (14:22) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
6. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 39:36 · JAX 6 · Score 10-13
   (9:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 39:32 · JAX 15 · Score 10-14
   7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
8. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 33:27 · JAX 31 · Score 10-17
   (3:27) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 31:28 · IND 9 · Score 13-17
   (1:28) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
10. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 30:17 · JAX 18 · Score 13-20
    (:17) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 7:57 · IND 9 · Score 19-20
    (7:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 11-P.Washington to IND 1 for 8 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), and recovers at IND 1. 11-P.Washi
12. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 7:50 · IND 15 · Score 20-20
    39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
13. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 3:57 · JAX 27 · Score 20-23
    (3:57) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 1:49 · IND 35 · Score 23-23
    (1:49) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
15. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — OT 5:27 · JAX 20 · Score 23-26
    (5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.