Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2009 Week 1 Recap

Game story

In Week 1 of the 2009 NFL season on 2009-09-13, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 14–12 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +11.24 total EPA, and +9.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.24 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-21.6% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (2:06) (Run formation) 31-D.Brown right end to JAX 35 for no gain (96-T.Knighton, 52-D.Smith). JAX-97-R.Hayward was injured during the play.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +11.24 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.67 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Jones-Drew · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +4.39 total EPA · 22 snaps · +0.20 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Brown · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.96 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.48 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Clark · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.05 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Collie · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.00 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.67 EPA/play
7. 7 G. Robinson · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.71 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.71 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Garrard · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +0.94 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — J. Addai (Q2 33:43)
• Indianapolis Colts — R. Wayne (P. Manning pass) (Q3 22:04)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (Q4 11:12)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q2 39:02)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q2 31:04)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–6. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 6 (Q2 39:02) — (9:02) 10-J.Scobee 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 3 (Q2 33:43) — (3:43) 29-J.Addai left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 33:39) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 28 (Q2 31:04) — (1:04) 10-J.Scobee 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 35 (Q3 22:04) — (7:04) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-C.Ingram].; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q3 21:56) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 6–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 7 (Q4 11:12) — (11:12) (Shotgun) 32-M.Jones-Drew left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 2:06) — (2:06) (Run formation) 31-D.Brown right end to JAX 35 for no gain (96-T.Knighton, 52-D.Smith). JAX-97-R.Hayward was injured during the play. [WPA -21.6% · EPA -2.92]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 1:23) — (1:23) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass incomplete short middle to 32-M.Jones-Drew (93-D.Freeney) [58-G.Brackett]. [WPA -19.1% · EPA -2.48]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 55:06) — (10:06) 18-P.Manning pass short left intended for 87-R.Wayne INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Cox at JAX -2. Touchback. [WPA -15.8% · EPA -5.97]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 44:00) — (14:00) 29-J.Addai left tackle to JAX 27 for -1 yards (54-Q.Groves). FUMBLES (54-Q.Groves), RECOVERED by JAX-21-D.Cox at JAX 30. 21-D.Cox to JAX 35 for 5 yards (87-R.Wayne). Minus 4 rushing yards for [WPA -14.7% · EPA -5.22]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 11:12) — (11:12) (Shotgun) 32-M.Jones-Drew left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.5% · EPA +3.99]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 55:06) — (10:06) 18-P.Manning pass short left intended for 87-R.Wayne INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Cox at JAX -2. Touchback. [WPA -15.8% · EPA -5.97]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 44:00) — (14:00) 29-J.Addai left tackle to JAX 27 for -1 yards (54-Q.Groves). FUMBLES (54-Q.Groves), RECOVERED by JAX-21-D.Cox at JAX 30. 21-D.Cox to JAX 35 for 5 yards (87-R.Wayne). Minus 4 rushing yards for [WPA -14.7% · EPA -5.22]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 11:12) — (11:12) (Shotgun) 32-M.Jones-Drew left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.5% · EPA +3.99]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 38:10) — (8:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne to JAX 42 for 39 yards (21-D.Cox). [WPA +14.3% · EPA +3.95]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 39 dropbacks · 71.8% completion · +9.7% CPOE · +0.29 EPA/play · +11.24 total EPA
• D.Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 30 dropbacks · 46.7% completion · -12.9% CPOE · -0.35 EPA/play · -10.43 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Jacksonville Jaguars -0.06, Indianapolis Colts -0.06) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, -4.88 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 drives, -4.48 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Garrard (JAX) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 39:02 · IND 6 · Score 3-0
   (9:02) 10-J.Scobee 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
2. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 33:43 · JAX 3 · Score 3-6
   (3:43) 29-J.Addai left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 33:39 · JAX 2 · Score 3-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 31:04 · IND 28 · Score 6-7
   (1:04) 10-J.Scobee 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
5. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 22:04 · JAX 35 · Score 6-13
   (7:04) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-C.Ingram].
6. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 21:56 · JAX 2 · Score 6-14
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 11:12 · IND 7 · Score 12-14
   (11:12) (Shotgun) 32-M.Jones-Drew left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.