Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans: 2007 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2007 NFL season on 2007-12-30, the Houston Texans took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 42–28 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

Q. Gray (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with +19.15 total EPA, and +4.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, Q. Gray (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +19.15 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+19.8% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Houston Texans changed the game: 10-J.Scobee kicks 67 yards from JAX 30 to HOU 3. 11-A.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 Q. Gray · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +19.15 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Jones · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +13.70 total EPA · 8 snaps · +1.71 EPA/play
3. 3 E. Wilford · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +12.06 total EPA · 6 snaps · +2.01 EPA/play
4. 4 S. Rosenfels · Houston Texans · Passing · +7.13 total EPA · 20 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Johnson · Houston Texans · Receiving · +7.08 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.18 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Walker · Houston Texans · Rushing · +5.90 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
7. 7 O. Daniels · Houston Texans · Receiving · +3.85 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.85 EPA/play
8. 8 G. Jones · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.12 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.04 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Jacksonville Jaguars — R. Williams (Q. Gray pass) (Q1 52:20)
• Houston Texans — R. Dayne (Q2 45:00)
• Houston Texans — O. Daniels (S. Rosenfels pass) (Q2 33:26)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — E. Wilford (Q. Gray pass) (Q2 30:33)
• Houston Texans — A. Davis (Q2 30:29)
• Houston Texans — A. Davis (Q3 30:00)
• Houston Texans — R. Dayne (Q3 22:25)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones (Q. Gray pass) (Q3 16:58)
• Houston Texans — D. Walker (Q4 13:12)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — E. Wilford (Q. Gray pass) (Q4 3:02)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the HOU 22 (Q1 52:20) — (7:20) 5-Q.Gray pass deep left to 11-R.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q1 52:12) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The second quarter: Houston Texans won the period 21–7. Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 2 (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 36-R.Dayne right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 44:57) — 3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 2 (Q2 33:26) — (3:26) 18-S.Rosenfels pass short left to 81-O.Daniels for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 33:21) — 3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the HOU 6 (Q2 30:33) — (:33) 5-Q.Gray pass short middle to 19-E.Wilford for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q2 30:29) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 30 (Q2 30:29) — 10-J.Scobee kicks 67 yards from JAX 30 to HOU 3. 11-A.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 30:15) — 3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk..

The third quarter: Houston Texans won the period 14–7. Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 30 (Q3 30:00) — 10-J.Scobee kicks 74 yards from JAX 30 to HOU -4. 11-A.Davis for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q3 29:47) — 3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk. PENALTY on JAX, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced between downs.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 12 (Q3 22:25) — (7:25) 36-R.Dayne left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q3 22:19) — 3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the HOU 5 (Q3 16:58) — (1:58) 5-Q.Gray pass short right to 18-M.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-32-F.Bennett, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q3 16:53) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q4 13:12) — (13:12) 37-D.Walker right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q4 13:07) — 3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the HOU 17 (Q4 3:02) — (3:02) (Shotgun) 5-Q.Gray pass deep middle to 19-E.Wilford for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q4 2:56) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Houston Texans (Q2 30:29) — 10-J.Scobee kicks 67 yards from JAX 30 to HOU 3. 11-A.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +19.8% · EPA +6.80]
• Houston Texans (Q1 45:21) — (:21) 1-M.Turk punts 39 yards to JAX 7, Center-48-B.Pittman. 84-C.Owens MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-11-A.Davis at JAX 7. 11-A.Davis to JAX 6 for 1 yard (84-C.Owens). (Punt hang time 3.9 seconds.) [WPA +13.2% · EPA +5.42]
• Houston Texans (Q3 30:00) — 10-J.Scobee kicks 74 yards from JAX 30 to HOU -4. 11-A.Davis for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.6% · EPA +6.06]
• Houston Texans (Q2 33:26) — (3:26) 18-S.Rosenfels pass short left to 81-O.Daniels for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.0% · EPA +3.85]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 56:26) — (11:26) 5-Q.Gray pass short right to 19-E.Wilford pushed ob at HOU 46 for 4 yards (34-V.Hutchins). [WPA +6.9% · EPA +2.52]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Houston Texans (Q2 30:29) — 10-J.Scobee kicks 67 yards from JAX 30 to HOU 3. 11-A.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +19.8% · EPA +6.80]
• Houston Texans (Q3 30:00) — 10-J.Scobee kicks 74 yards from JAX 30 to HOU -4. 11-A.Davis for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.6% · EPA +6.06]
• Houston Texans (Q1 45:21) — (:21) 1-M.Turk punts 39 yards to JAX 7, Center-48-B.Pittman. 84-C.Owens MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-11-A.Davis at JAX 7. 11-A.Davis to JAX 6 for 1 yard (84-C.Owens). (Punt hang time 3.9 seconds.) [WPA +13.2% · EPA +5.42]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 3:02) — (3:02) (Shotgun) 5-Q.Gray pass deep middle to 19-E.Wilford for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +0.1% · EPA +4.06]

Quarterback report card

Q.Gray led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• Q.Gray (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 41 dropbacks · 61.0% completion · +4.6% CPOE · +0.47 EPA/play · +19.15 total EPA
• S.Rosenfels (Houston Texans) · 20 dropbacks · 55.0% completion · -7.6% CPOE · +0.36 EPA/play · +7.13 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Houston Texans held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.41 vs +0.20), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Houston Texans: 10 drives, +29.09 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 9 drives, +16.54 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Houston Texans leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• Q. Gray (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• Q. Gray (JAX) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• S. Rosenfels (HOU) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 52:20 · HOU 22 · Score 6-0
   (7:20) 5-Q.Gray pass deep left to 11-R.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 52:12 · HOU 2 · Score 7-0
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
3. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · JAX 2 · Score 7-6
   (15:00) 36-R.Dayne right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q2 44:57 · JAX 2 · Score 7-7
   3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk.
5. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 33:26 · JAX 2 · Score 7-13
   (3:26) 18-S.Rosenfels pass short left to 81-O.Daniels for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q2 33:21 · JAX 2 · Score 7-14
   3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 30:33 · HOU 6 · Score 13-14
   (:33) 5-Q.Gray pass short middle to 19-E.Wilford for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 30:29 · HOU 2 · Score 14-14
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
9. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 30:29 · JAX 30 · Score 14-20
   10-J.Scobee kicks 67 yards from JAX 30 to HOU 3. 11-A.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q2 30:15 · JAX 2 · Score 14-21
    3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk.
11. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q3 30:00 · JAX 30 · Score 14-27
    10-J.Scobee kicks 74 yards from JAX 30 to HOU -4. 11-A.Davis for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q3 29:47 · JAX 2 · Score 14-28
    3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk. PENALTY on JAX, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
13. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q3 22:25 · JAX 12 · Score 14-34
    (7:25) 36-R.Dayne left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q3 22:19 · JAX 2 · Score 14-35
    3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 16:58 · HOU 5 · Score 20-35
    (1:58) 5-Q.Gray pass short right to 18-M.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-32-F.Bennett, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 16:53 · HOU 2 · Score 21-35
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
17. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q4 13:12 · JAX 1 · Score 21-41
    (13:12) 37-D.Walker right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q4 13:07 · JAX 2 · Score 21-42
    3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-1-M.Turk.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 3:02 · HOU 17 · Score 27-42
    (3:02) (Shotgun) 5-Q.Gray pass deep middle to 19-E.Wilford for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 2:56 · HOU 2 · Score 28-42
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.