Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos: 2019 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2019 NFL season on 2019-09-29, the Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 26–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

G.Minshew II (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with +2.14 total EPA, and -1.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, L. Fournette (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.51 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+33.5% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 L. Fournette · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +8.51 total EPA · 30 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Flacco · Denver Broncos · Passing · +5.60 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.14 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Westbrook · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +4.71 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.78 EPA/play
4. 4 C. Sutton · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +3.40 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Cole · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.39 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.39 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Hamilton · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +3.02 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
7. 7 R. Armstead · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.65 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.65 EPA/play
8. 8 G.Minshew II · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +2.14 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.05 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Denver Broncos — N. Fant (J. Flacco pass) (Q1 53:28)
• Denver Broncos — C. Sutton (J. Flacco pass) (Q2 43:43)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — R. Armstead (G. Minshew pass) (Q3 19:46)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. O'Shaughnessy (G. Minshew pass) (Q3 16:16)
• Denver Broncos — C. Sutton (J. Flacco pass) (Q4 1:38)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Lambo (Q1 48:16)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q2 34:20)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Lambo (Q2 30:11)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Lambo (Q4 2:58)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Lambo (Q4 0:04)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–3. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the JAX 25 (Q1 53:28) — (8:28) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 53:17) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the DEN 7 (Q1 48:16) — (3:16) 4-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

The second quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 10–3. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the JAX 7 (Q2 43:43) — (13:43) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 43:39) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the JAX 15 (Q2 34:20); Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the DEN 22 (Q2 30:11) — (:11) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 14–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the DEN 7 (Q3 19:46); Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q3 19:36) — 4-J.Lambo extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the DEN 18 (Q3 16:16) — (1:16) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q3 16:10) — 4-J.Lambo extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

The fourth quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–6. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the DEN 16 (Q4 2:58) — (2:58) 4-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the JAX 8 (Q4 1:38) — (1:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 1:32) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the DEN 15 (Q4 0:04) — (:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 0:04) — (:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. [WPA +33.5% · EPA +0.20]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 1:46) — (1:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 10-E.Sanders ran ob at JAX 8 for 27 yards (36-R.Harrison). [WPA +22.4% · EPA +2.64]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 17:57) — (2:57) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to DEN 12 for 81 yards (20-D.Dawson). [WPA +21.6% · EPA +5.30]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 1:18) — (1:18) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at DEN 27 for 32 yards (20-D.Dawson). [WPA +20.8% · EPA +1.91]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 16:16) — (1:16) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.5% · EPA +3.29]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q2 31:05) — (1:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 10-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 36-R.Harrison at JAX 26. 36-R.Harrison to DEN 43 for 31 yards (72-G.Bolles). [WPA -8.2% · EPA -5.54]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 17:57) — (2:57) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to DEN 12 for 81 yards (20-D.Dawson). [WPA +21.6% · EPA +5.30]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 24:42) — (9:42) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep middle to 84-K.Cole to DEN 24 for 19 yards (34-W.Parks). [WPA +6.5% · EPA +3.39]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 16:16) — (1:16) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.5% · EPA +3.29]

Quarterback report card

G.Minshew II led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• G.Minshew II (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 41 dropbacks · 46.3% completion · -1.1% CPOE · +0.05 EPA/play · +2.14 total EPA
• J.Flacco (Denver Broncos) · 39 dropbacks · 56.4% completion · -2.4% CPOE · +0.14 EPA/play · +5.60 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Jacksonville Jaguars +0.08, Denver Broncos +0.05) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Denver Broncos: 13 drives, +3.54 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 12 drives, +7.95 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Jacksonville Jaguars leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• L. Fournette (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 53:28 · JAX 25 · Score 0-6
   (8:28) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 53:17 · JAX 15 · Score 0-7
   8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q1 48:16 · DEN 7 · Score 3-7
   (3:16) 4-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
4. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 43:43 · JAX 7 · Score 3-13
   (13:43) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 43:39 · JAX 15 · Score 3-14
   8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
6. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 34:20 · JAX 15 · Score 3-17
   (4:20) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. Penalty on JAX-22-C.Davis, Defensive Offside, declined.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 30:11 · DEN 22 · Score 6-17
   (:11) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 19:46 · DEN 7 · Score 12-17
   (4:46) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 23-R.Armstead for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe]. DEN-55-B.Chubb was injured during the play.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 19:36 · DEN 15 · Score 13-17
   4-J.Lambo extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 16:16 · DEN 18 · Score 19-17
    (1:16) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 16:10 · DEN 15 · Score 20-17
    4-J.Lambo extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 2:58 · DEN 16 · Score 23-17
    (2:58) 4-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
13. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 1:38 · JAX 8 · Score 23-23
    (1:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 1:32 · JAX 15 · Score 23-24
    8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 0:04 · DEN 15 · Score 26-24
    (:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.