Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets: 2006 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2006 NFL season on 2006-10-01, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the New York Jets, pulling away with a 31–28 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 31 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +12.74 total EPA, and +11.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.74 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+41.4% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when New York Jets changed the game: 7-M.Gramatica kicks 73 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -3. 22-J.Miller for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +12.74 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +7.99 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.14 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +6.81 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.70 EPA/play
4. 4 L. Coles · New York Jets · Receiving · +6.04 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.01 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Cotchery · New York Jets · Receiving · +4.41 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.47 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Dwight · New York Jets · Receiving · +3.63 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.21 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Pennington · New York Jets · Passing · +3.46 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play
8. 8 B. Fletcher · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.43 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.14 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — D. Rhodes (Q1 57:32)
• New York Jets — J. Cotchery (C. Pennington pass) (Q2 40:20)
• New York Jets — K. Barlow (Q2 34:47)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Addai (Q2 30:19)
• New York Jets — K. Barlow (Q4 7:55)
• Indianapolis Colts — B. Fletcher (P. Manning pass) (Q4 2:40)
• New York Jets — J. Miller (Q4 2:34)
• Indianapolis Colts — P. Manning (Q4 0:50)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Gramatica (Q4 13:02)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NYJ 6 (Q1 57:32) — (12:32) (No Huddle) 33-D.Rhodes right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q1 57:28) — 7-M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The second quarter: New York Jets won the period 14–7. New York Jets found the end zone from the IND 33 (Q2 40:20); New York Jets added 1 points from the IND 12 (Q2 40:10) — 1-M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-7-B.Graham.; New York Jets found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q2 34:47) — (4:47) 32-K.Barlow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 34:44) — 1-M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-7-B.Graham.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NYJ 2 (Q2 30:19) — (:19) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q2 30:16) — 7-M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 17–14. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NYJ 2 (Q4 13:02) — (13:02) 7-M.Gramatica 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; New York Jets found the end zone from the IND 5 (Q4 7:55) — (7:55) 32-K.Barlow left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 7:55) — 1-M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-7-B.Graham.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NYJ 2 (Q4 2:40) — (2:40) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 81-B.Fletcher for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q4 2:34) — 7-M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; New York Jets found the end zone from the IND 30 (Q4 2:34) — 7-M.Gramatica kicks 73 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -3. 22-J.Miller for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 2:20) — 1-M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-7-B.Graham.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NYJ 1 (Q4 0:50) — (:50) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NYJ 2 (Q4 0:50) — 7-M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New York Jets (Q4 2:34) — 7-M.Gramatica kicks 73 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -3. 22-J.Miller for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +41.4% · EPA +6.61]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 3:40) — (3:40) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 87-R.Wayne. PENALTY on NYJ-22-J.Miller, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play. [WPA +22.4% · EPA +2.49]
• New York Jets (Q1 59:09) — (14:09) (No Huddle) 10-C.Pennington sacked at NYJ 31 for -8 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis), RECOVERED by IND-91-J.Thomas at NYJ 26. 91-J.Thomas to NYJ 26 for no gain (68-A.Clement). [WPA -18.8% · EPA -6.17]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:26) — (1:26) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-M.Harrison ran ob at NYJ 16 for 19 yards. [WPA +18.5% · EPA +1.86]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:13) — (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne pushed ob at NYJ 1 for 15 yards (22-J.Miller). [WPA +18.1% · EPA +2.35]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New York Jets (Q4 2:34) — 7-M.Gramatica kicks 73 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -3. 22-J.Miller for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +41.4% · EPA +6.61]
• New York Jets (Q1 59:09) — (14:09) (No Huddle) 10-C.Pennington sacked at NYJ 31 for -8 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis), RECOVERED by IND-91-J.Thomas at NYJ 26. 91-J.Thomas to NYJ 26 for no gain (68-A.Clement). [WPA -18.8% · EPA -6.17]
• New York Jets (Q3 19:40) — (4:40) 10-C.Pennington pass short right intended for 85-J.Dearth INTERCEPTED by 85-A.Moorehead (50-R.Boiman) at IND 0. Touchback. [WPA -10.8% · EPA -3.35]
• New York Jets (Q2 40:20) — (10:20) (No Huddle) 10-C.Pennington pass deep middle to 89-J.Cotchery for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-98-R.Mathis, Defensive Offside, declined. [WPA +14.3% · EPA +3.32]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 33 dropbacks · 63.6% completion · +11.7% CPOE · +0.39 EPA/play · +12.74 total EPA
• C.Pennington (New York Jets) · 31 dropbacks · 54.8% completion · +13.2% CPOE · +0.11 EPA/play · +3.46 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Indianapolis Colts +0.17, New York Jets +0.13) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, +14.73 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• New York Jets: 12 drives, +11.02 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• C. Pennington (NYJ) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 57:32 · NYJ 6 · Score 6-0
   (12:32) (No Huddle) 33-D.Rhodes right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 57:28 · NYJ 2 · Score 7-0
   7-M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
3. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q2 40:20 · IND 33 · Score 7-6
   (10:20) (No Huddle) 10-C.Pennington pass deep middle to 89-J.Cotchery for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-98-R.Mathis, Defensive Offside, declined.
4. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q2 40:10 · IND 12 · Score 7-7
   1-M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-7-B.Graham.
5. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q2 34:47 · IND 1 · Score 7-13
   (4:47) 32-K.Barlow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q2 34:44 · IND 2 · Score 7-14
   1-M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-7-B.Graham.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 30:19 · NYJ 2 · Score 13-14
   (:19) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 30:16 · NYJ 2 · Score 14-14
   7-M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
9. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 13:02 · NYJ 2 · Score 17-14
   (13:02) 7-M.Gramatica 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
10. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q4 7:55 · IND 5 · Score 17-20
    (7:55) 32-K.Barlow left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q4 7:55 · IND 2 · Score 17-21
    1-M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-7-B.Graham.
12. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 2:40 · NYJ 2 · Score 23-21
    (2:40) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 81-B.Fletcher for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 2:34 · NYJ 2 · Score 24-21
    7-M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
14. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q4 2:34 · IND 30 · Score 24-27
    7-M.Gramatica kicks 73 yards from IND 30 to NYJ -3. 22-J.Miller for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q4 2:20 · IND 2 · Score 24-28
    1-M.Nugent extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-7-B.Graham.
16. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 0:50 · NYJ 1 · Score 30-28
    (:50) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
17. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 0:50 · NYJ 2 · Score 31-28
    7-M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.