Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots: 2011 Week 13 Recap

Game story

In Week 13 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-12-04, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 31–24 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +15.10 total EPA, and +14.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Orlovsky (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +20.36 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+10.8% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (5:35) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass short right to 84-J.Tamme pushed ob at NE 33 for 20 yards (18-M.Slater).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Orlovsky · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +20.36 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +15.10 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
3. 3 P. Garcon · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +13.59 total EPA · 12 snaps · +1.13 EPA/play
4. 4 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +8.84 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +7.39 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.23 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.45 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.89 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Tamme · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.85 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.64 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Brown · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.21 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.21 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q2 33:01)
• New England Patriots — B. Green-Ellis (Q2 30:18)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q3 27:20)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (Q3 19:17)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Brown (Q4 10:29)
• Indianapolis Colts — P. Garcon (D. Orlovsky pass) (Q4 2:18)
• Indianapolis Colts — P. Garcon (D. Orlovsky pass) (Q4 0:40)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 54:33)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 44:15)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 21 (Q1 54:33) — (9:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–3. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 13 (Q2 44:15) — (14:15) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 11 (Q2 33:01); New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 32:57) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q2 30:18) — (:18) 64-D.Thomas reported in as eligible. 42-B.Green-Ellis left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 30:13) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 28–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 35 (Q3 30:00) — 1-P.McAfee kicks 69 yards from IND 35 to NE -4. 11-J.Edelman to NE 23 for 27 yards (27-J.Lacey; 26-J.Hines).; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 77 (Q3 29:56) — (14:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 83-W.Welker to NE 28 for 5 yards (53-K.Conner).; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 21 (Q3 27:20); New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 27:16) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q3 19:17) — (4:17) (Shotgun) 87-R.Gronkowski right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. lateral from Brady; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 19:13) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 21–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 5 (Q4 10:29) — (10:29) 31-D.Brown right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 10:24) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 33 (Q4 2:18) — (2:18) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass deep right to 85-P.Garcon for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-J.Mayo].; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 2:12) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 12 (Q4 0:40) — (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass short right to 85-P.Garcon for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 0:36) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 50:35) — (5:35) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass short right to 84-J.Tamme pushed ob at NE 33 for 20 yards (18-M.Slater). [WPA +10.8% · EPA +2.59]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 44:35) — (14:35) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky sacked at NE 13 for -8 yards (50-R.Ninkovich). [WPA -10.5% · EPA -1.31]
• New England Patriots (Q2 35:54) — (5:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 85-C.Ochocinco to IND 29 for 12 yards (36-C.Rucker). [WPA +8.4% · EPA +1.86]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 52:48) — (7:48) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass short left to 87-R.Wayne to IND 43 for 12 yards (24-K.Arrington). [WPA +6.7% · EPA +2.03]
• New England Patriots (Q2 34:11) — (4:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker to IND 16 for 18 yards (35-J.Lefeged; 52-A.Edds). NE 83-Welker 5,729 career receiving yards as a Patriot, passing Irving Fryar for 3rd in tea [WPA +6.7% · EPA +2.62]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 7:18) — (7:18) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass short middle intended for 17-A.Collie INTERCEPTED by 51-J.Mayo at NE 42. 51-J.Mayo to NE 44 for 2 yards (87-R.Wayne). [WPA -0.1% · EPA -4.91]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 2:18) — (2:18) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass deep right to 85-P.Garcon for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-J.Mayo]. [WPA +0.1% · EPA +4.59]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 23:22) — (8:22) 34-D.Carter right tackle to NE 41 for 10 yards (18-M.Slater). FUMBLES (18-M.Slater), RECOVERED by NE-24-K.Arrington at NE 34. 24-K.Arrington to NE 34 for no gain (87-R.Wayne). [WPA -2.7% · EPA -3.26]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:47) — (:47) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass deep right to 85-P.Garcon pushed ob at NE 12 for 40 yards (32-D.McCourty). [WPA +0.5% · EPA +3.03]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 41 dropbacks · 70.7% completion · +14.3% CPOE · +0.37 EPA/play · +15.10 total EPA
• D.Orlovsky (Indianapolis Colts) · 39 dropbacks · 76.9% completion · +19.1% CPOE · +0.52 EPA/play · +20.36 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.22 vs +0.15), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, +13.40 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +17.92 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Orlovsky (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Orlovsky (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 54:33 · IND 21 · Score 0-3
   (9:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
2. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 44:15 · NE 13 · Score 3-3
   (14:15) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 33:01 · IND 11 · Score 3-9
   (3:01) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 290th career TD pass, tying Johnny Unitas for 7th place all-time. NE
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 32:57 · IND 2 · Score 3-10
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 30:18 · IND 1 · Score 3-16
   (:18) 64-D.Thomas reported in as eligible. 42-B.Green-Ellis left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 30:13 · IND 2 · Score 3-17
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
7. New England Patriots TD (+7) — Q3 30:00 · IND 35 · Score 3-17
   1-P.McAfee kicks 69 yards from IND 35 to NE -4. 11-J.Edelman to NE 23 for 27 yards (27-J.Lacey; 26-J.Hines).
8. New England Patriots TD (+7) — Q3 29:56 · IND 77 · Score 3-17
   (14:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 83-W.Welker to NE 28 for 5 yards (53-K.Conner).
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 27:20 · IND 21 · Score 3-23
   (12:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-T.Brayton]. NE 12-Brady 30th pass TD of season, 3rd time
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 27:16 · IND 2 · Score 3-24
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
11. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 19:17 · IND 2 · Score 3-30
    (4:17) (Shotgun) 87-R.Gronkowski right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. lateral from Brady
12. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 19:13 · IND 2 · Score 3-31
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
13. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 10:29 · NE 5 · Score 9-31
    (10:29) 31-D.Brown right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 10:24 · NE 2 · Score 10-31
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
15. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 2:18 · NE 33 · Score 16-31
    (2:18) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass deep right to 85-P.Garcon for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-J.Mayo].
16. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 2:12 · NE 2 · Score 17-31
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
17. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 0:40 · NE 12 · Score 23-31
    (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass short right to 85-P.Garcon for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 0:36 · NE 2 · Score 24-31
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.