Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-12-27, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 18–12 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) paced the passing game, with +2.99 total EPA, and +4.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, L. Miller (Miami Dolphins) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +4.91 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-23.6% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Miami Dolphins changed the game: (:27) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at IND 14 for -9 yards (98-R.Mathis).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 L. Miller · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +4.91 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.82 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Landry · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +4.33 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.68 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play
4. 4 A. Johnson · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.01 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Tannehill · Miami Dolphins · Passing · +2.99 total EPA · 48 snaps · +0.06 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Hasselbeck · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +2.89 total EPA · 18 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
7. 7 F. Gore · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +2.58 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Cameron · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.50 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — F. Gore (Q1 51:13)
• Miami Dolphins — L. Miller (Q2 38:15)
• Indianapolis Colts — F. Gore (Q2 34:49)

Field goals

• Miami Dolphins — A. Franks (Q3 18:53)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 8:33)
• Miami Dolphins — A. Franks (Q4 5:22)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 8–0. Indianapolis Colts registered a safety from the IND 92 (Q1 54:25) — (9:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (67-T.McGill).; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the MIA 37 (Q1 51:13) — (6:13) 23-F.Gore left guard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–6. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q2 38:15) — (8:15) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the MIA 11 (Q2 34:49) — (4:49) 23-F.Gore left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the MIA 15 (Q2 34:42) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The third quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 3–0. Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the IND 15 (Q3 18:53) — (3:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the MIA 20 (Q4 8:33) — (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Miami Dolphins connected on a field goal from the IND 2 (Q4 5:22) — (5:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Miami Dolphins (Q4 0:27) — (:27) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at IND 14 for -9 yards (98-R.Mathis). [WPA -23.6% · EPA -2.40]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 0:47) — (:47) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 14-J.Landry pushed ob at IND 5 for 19 yards (21-V.Davis). [WPA +16.1% · EPA +2.51]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 38:15) — (8:15) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.8% · EPA +1.32]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 51:53) — (6:53) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 15-P.Dorsett to MIA 37 for 22 yards (36-T.Lippett). [WPA +11.3% · EPA +3.22]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 0:53) — (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at IND 24 for -8 yards (90-K.Langford). [WPA -11.2% · EPA -1.46]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Miami Dolphins (Q1 45:59) — (:59) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 21-V.Davis at IND -9. Touchback. [WPA -5.1% · EPA -4.62]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 51:13) — (6:13) 23-F.Gore left guard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.3% · EPA +3.54]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 49:00) — (4:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 26-L.Miller pushed ob at IND 33 for 8 yards (50-J.Freeman). PENALTY on IND-50-J.Freeman, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at IND 33. [WPA +8.8% · EPA +3.25]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 51:53) — (6:53) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 15-P.Dorsett to MIA 37 for 22 yards (36-T.Lippett). [WPA +11.3% · EPA +3.22]

Quarterback report card

R.Tannehill led all passers in efficiency for Miami Dolphins, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) · 48 dropbacks · 54.2% completion · +4.8% CPOE · +0.06 EPA/play · +2.99 total EPA
• M.Hasselbeck (Indianapolis Colts) · 18 dropbacks · 44.4% completion · -15.6% CPOE · +0.16 EPA/play · +2.89 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Indianapolis Colts generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.09 vs -0.01), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, +6.70 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Miami Dolphins: 9 drives, -0.84 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• L. Miller (Miami Dolphins) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Tannehill (MIA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• M. Hasselbeck (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts Safety (+2) — Q1 54:25 · IND 92 · Score 2-0
   (9:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (67-T.McGill).
2. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 51:13 · MIA 37 · Score 8-0
   (6:13) 23-F.Gore left guard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 38:15 · IND 1 · Score 8-6
   (8:15) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 34:49 · MIA 11 · Score 14-6
   (4:49) 23-F.Gore left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 34:42 · MIA 15 · Score 15-6
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
6. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q3 18:53 · IND 15 · Score 15-9
   (3:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
7. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 8:33 · MIA 20 · Score 18-9
   (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
8. Miami Dolphins FG (+3) — Q4 5:22 · IND 2 · Score 18-12
   (5:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.