Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 2016 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-12-24, the Las Vegas Raiders took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 33–25 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 27 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +10.35 total EPA, and +7.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.28 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+16.0% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Las Vegas Raiders changed the game: Raiders Captains: #4 D.Carr, #27 R.Nelson, #39 K.McGill II, #51 B.Irvin, #52 K.Mack, #61 R.Hudson Colts Captains: #1 P.McAfee, 34 A.Vinatieri, #12 A.Luck, #23 F.Gore, #93 E.Walden, #98 R.Mathis

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Carr · Las Vegas Raiders · Passing · +13.28 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Luck · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +10.35 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Crabtree · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +6.54 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.65 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Washington · Las Vegas Raiders · Rushing · +4.21 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Richard · Las Vegas Raiders · Rushing · +3.32 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Walford · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +3.26 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.63 EPA/play
7. 7 E. Swoope · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.20 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.20 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Turbin · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.82 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.41 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Las Vegas Raiders — A. Holmes (D. Carr pass) (Q2 45:00)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Moncrief (A. Luck pass) (Q2 39:54)
• Las Vegas Raiders — C. Walford (D. Carr pass) (Q2 35:55)
• Las Vegas Raiders — J. Richard (D. Carr pass) (Q2 30:22)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Washington (Q3 25:53)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Washington (Q3 23:45)
• Indianapolis Colts — R. Turbin (A. Luck pass) (Q3 20:22)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Luck (Q4 7:47)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 2:38)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 19–8. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 18-A.Holmes for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q2 44:57) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the LV 24 (Q2 39:54) — (9:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q2 39:49) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the IND 80 (Q2 39:10) — (9:10) (Shotgun) 33-D.Washington left tackle to LV 23 for 3 yards (53-E.Jackson).; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the IND 5 (Q2 35:55) — (5:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 88-C.Walford for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the IND 4 (Q2 30:22) — (:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 30-J.Richard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The third quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 14–7. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the IND 22 (Q3 25:53) — (10:53) (Shotgun) 33-D.Washington up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q3 25:48) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the IND 22 (Q3 23:45) — (8:45) (Shotgun) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 33-D.Washington right guard for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q3 23:40) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the LV 3 (Q3 20:22) — (5:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 33-R.Turbin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack].; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q3 20:18) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 11–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the LV 11 (Q4 7:47) — (7:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck scrambles left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts registered a safety from the LV 2 (Q4 7:40) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-A.Luck pass to 13-T.Hilton is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the LV 25 (Q4 2:38) — (2:38) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1) — Raiders Captains: #4 D.Carr, #27 R.Nelson, #39 K.McGill II, #51 B.Irvin, #52 K.Mack, #61 R.Hudson Colts Captains: #1 P.McAfee, 34 A.Vinatieri, #12 A.Luck, #23 F.Gore, #93 E.Walden, #98 R.Mathis [WPA +16.0% · EPA -1.30]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 55:55) — (10:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 86-E.Swoope to LV 35 for 45 yards (20-N.Allen). [WPA +11.5% · EPA +3.20]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 52:18) — (7:18) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 20-N.Allen [90-D.Williams] at LV 42. 20-N.Allen to LV 46 for 4 yards (23-F.Gore). [WPA -11.2% · EPA -4.67]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 31:21) — (1:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Nelson [51-B.Irvin] at LV -5. Touchback. [WPA -11.1% · EPA -3.77]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 39:54) — (9:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.9% · EPA +2.86]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 52:18) — (7:18) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 20-N.Allen [90-D.Williams] at LV 42. 20-N.Allen to LV 46 for 4 yards (23-F.Gore). [WPA -11.2% · EPA -4.67]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 25:18) — (10:18) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore up the middle to IND 36 for 10 yards (53-M.Smith). FUMBLES (53-M.Smith), RECOVERED by LV-38-T.Carrie at IND 38. 38-T.Carrie to IND 38 for no gain (78-R.Kelly). [WPA -2.4% · EPA -3.99]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 31:21) — (1:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Nelson [51-B.Irvin] at LV -5. Touchback. [WPA -11.1% · EPA -3.77]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 53:34) — (8:34) (Field Goal formation) 1-P.McAfee left tackle to LV 30 for no gain (56-D.Bates). [WPA -7.1% · EPA -3.38]

Quarterback report card

A.Luck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 35 dropbacks · 54.3% completion · +7.0% CPOE · +0.30 EPA/play · +10.35 total EPA
• D.Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) · 35 dropbacks · 60.0% completion · +7.9% CPOE · +0.38 EPA/play · +13.28 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Indianapolis Colts +0.07, Las Vegas Raiders +0.09) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 11 drives, +4.63 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Las Vegas Raiders: 12 drives, +8.84 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Las Vegas Raiders leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Luck (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Carr (LV) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · IND 1 · Score 0-6
   (15:00) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 18-A.Holmes for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q2 44:57 · IND 15 · Score 0-7
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
3. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 39:54 · LV 24 · Score 6-7
   (9:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 39:49 · LV 15 · Score 7-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
5. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 39:10 · IND 80 · Score 7-7
   (9:10) (Shotgun) 33-D.Washington left tackle to LV 23 for 3 yards (53-E.Jackson).
6. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 35:55 · IND 5 · Score 7-13
   (5:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 88-C.Walford for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 30:22 · IND 4 · Score 7-19
   (:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 30-J.Richard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q3 25:53 · IND 22 · Score 7-25
   (10:53) (Shotgun) 33-D.Washington up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q3 25:48 · IND 15 · Score 7-26
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
10. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q3 23:45 · IND 22 · Score 7-32
    (8:45) (Shotgun) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 33-D.Washington right guard for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q3 23:40 · IND 15 · Score 7-33
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
12. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 20:22 · LV 3 · Score 13-33
    (5:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 33-R.Turbin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack].
13. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 20:18 · LV 15 · Score 14-33
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
14. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 7:47 · LV 11 · Score 20-33
    (7:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck scrambles left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Indianapolis Colts Safety (+2) — Q4 7:40 · LV 2 · Score 22-33
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-A.Luck pass to 13-T.Hilton is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
16. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 2:38 · LV 25 · Score 25-33
    (2:38) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.