Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 14 Recap

Game story

In Week 14 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-12-13, the Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 51–16 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Hasselbeck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with -10.81 total EPA, and -12.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Hurns (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.87 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-25.8% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck sacked at JAX 42 for -8 yards (90-A.Branch). FUMBLES (90-A.Branch), RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Branch at IND 49. 90-A.Branch for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Hurns · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +8.87 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.22 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +6.88 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.98 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Bortles · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +4.53 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Thomas · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.98 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
5. 5 Z. Tipton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.92 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Harbor · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +1.84 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.92 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Whitehurst · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +1.78 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.78 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Robinson · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +0.81 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — B. Bortles (Q2 32:00)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — A. Branch (Q2 31:11)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — A. Hurns (B. Bortles pass) (Q3 28:45)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — R. Greene (Q3 27:06)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — A. Robinson (B. Bortles pass) (Q3 19:55)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Thomas (B. Bortles pass) (Q4 12:56)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — D. Robinson (Q4 6:03)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — B. Bortles (Q4 2:00)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Myers (Q1 56:22)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q1 52:51)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 43:50)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q3 22:43)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 28 (Q1 56:22) — (11:22) 2-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 7 (Q1 52:51) — (7:51) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–6. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 3 (Q2 43:50) — (13:50) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the IND 90 (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 5, RECOVERED by IND-98-R.Mathis at JAX -5. TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 31:56) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the JAX 34 (Q2 31:11).

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 21–3. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 80 (Q3 28:45) — (13:45) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q3 28:33) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the JAX 77 (Q3 27:06) — (12:06) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q3 26:49) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 14 (Q3 22:43) — (7:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 4 (Q3 19:55) — (4:55) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q3 19:51) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 21–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 3 (Q4 12:56) — (12:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 80-J.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q4 12:53) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q4 6:03) — (6:03) (Shotgun) 16-D.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q4 5:59) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) 5-B.Bortles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q4 1:57) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 31:11) — (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck sacked at JAX 42 for -8 yards (90-A.Branch). FUMBLES (90-A.Branch), RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Branch at IND 49. 90-A.Branch for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -25.8% · EPA -10.21]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 28:45) — (13:45) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +23.3% · EPA +5.98]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 5, RECOVERED by IND-98-R.Mathis at JAX -5. TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -20.6% · EPA -7.02]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 31:22) — (1:22) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at IND 37 for -8 yards (29-M.Adams). FUMBLES (29-M.Adams) [29-M.Adams], RECOVERED by IND-42-C.Geathers at IND 37. 42-C.Geathers pushed ob at JAX 34 for 29 yards (24 [WPA -14.4% · EPA -6.75]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 54:59) — (9:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton to JAX 11 for 57 yards (26-J.Evans). [WPA +13.7% · EPA +3.78]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 31:11) — (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck sacked at JAX 42 for -8 yards (90-A.Branch). FUMBLES (90-A.Branch), RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Branch at IND 49. 90-A.Branch for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -25.8% · EPA -10.21]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 4:19) — (4:19) (Shotgun) 6-C.Whitehurst pass deep right intended for 80-C.Fleener INTERCEPTED by 37-J.Cyprien at IND 49. 37-J.Cyprien to IND 1 for 48 yards (75-J.Mewhort). [WPA +0.0% · EPA -7.63]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 5, RECOVERED by IND-98-R.Mathis at JAX -5. TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -20.6% · EPA -7.02]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 31:22) — (1:22) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at IND 37 for -8 yards (29-M.Adams). FUMBLES (29-M.Adams) [29-M.Adams], RECOVERED by IND-42-C.Geathers at IND 37. 42-C.Geathers pushed ob at JAX 34 for 29 yards (24 [WPA -14.4% · EPA -6.75]

Quarterback report card

M.Hasselbeck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Hasselbeck (Indianapolis Colts) · 41 dropbacks · 43.9% completion · -12.2% CPOE · -0.26 EPA/play · -10.81 total EPA
• B.Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 35 dropbacks · 45.7% completion · -9.2% CPOE · +0.13 EPA/play · +4.53 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Jacksonville Jaguars held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.03 vs -0.36), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Indianapolis Colts: 17 drives, -34.27 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 15 drives, +2.44 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Jacksonville Jaguars leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• A. Hurns (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Hasselbeck (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• B. Bortles (JAX) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q1 56:22 · IND 28 · Score 0-3
   (11:22) 2-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
2. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q1 52:51 · JAX 7 · Score 3-3
   (7:51) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
3. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 43:50 · JAX 3 · Score 6-3
   (13:50) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
4. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 32:00 · IND 90 · Score 12-3
   (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 5, RECOVERED by IND-98-R.Mathis at JAX -5. TOUCHDOWN.
5. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 31:56 · JAX 15 · Score 13-3
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 31:11 · JAX 34 · Score 13-9
   (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck sacked at JAX 42 for -8 yards (90-A.Branch). FUMBLES (90-A.Branch), RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Branch at IND 49. 90-A.Branch for 49 y
7. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 28:45 · IND 80 · Score 13-15
   (13:45) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 28:33 · IND 15 · Score 13-16
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 27:06 · JAX 77 · Score 13-22
   (12:06) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to JAX 27, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 26:49 · IND 15 · Score 13-23
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
11. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q3 22:43 · JAX 14 · Score 16-23
    (7:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 19:55 · IND 4 · Score 16-29
    (4:55) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 19:51 · IND 15 · Score 16-30
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 12:56 · IND 3 · Score 16-36
    (12:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 80-J.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 12:53 · IND 15 · Score 16-37
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 6:03 · IND 1 · Score 16-43
    (6:03) (Shotgun) 16-D.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 5:59 · IND 15 · Score 16-44
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 2:00 · IND 1 · Score 16-50
    (2:00) 5-B.Bortles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 1:57 · IND 15 · Score 16-51
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.