Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2010 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2010 NFL season on 2010-10-03, the Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 31–28 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +9.74 total EPA, and +9.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.96 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+25.9% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (:05) 10-J.Scobee 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Garrard · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +9.96 total EPA · 23 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
2. 2 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +9.74 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Clark · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +6.05 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Addai · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +5.33 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.64 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Garrard · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +4.09 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.02 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Jones-Drew · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.52 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.76 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Collie · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.49 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — J. Addai (Q1 53:42)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — D. Garrard (Q1 48:39)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (Q2 43:44)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Clark (P. Manning pass) (Q2 37:45)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Lewis (D. Garrard pass) (Q3 19:42)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Addai (Q4 7:39)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (D. Garrard pass) (Q4 2:13)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Collie (P. Manning pass) (Q4 0:52)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q4 0:05)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 2 (Q1 53:42) — (8:42) 29-J.Addai left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q1 53:37) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 25 (Q1 48:39) — (3:39) 9-D.Garrard right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 48:30) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q2 43:44) — (13:44) 32-M.Jones-Drew right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 43:40) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 7 (Q2 37:45) — (7:45) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 44-D.Clark for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 37:41) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 15 (Q3 19:42) — (4:42) 9-D.Garrard pass short middle to 89-M.Lewis for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 19:37) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–10. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 2 (Q4 7:39) — (7:39) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q4 7:35) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 8 (Q4 2:13) — (2:13) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 32-M.Jones-Drew for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 2:09) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q4 0:52) — (:52) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 17-A.Collie for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q4 0:48); Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 41 (Q4 0:05) — (:05) 10-J.Scobee 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 0:05) — (:05) 10-J.Scobee 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh. [WPA +25.9% · EPA +1.83]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 23:43) — (8:43) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle intended for 81-B.Eldridge INTERCEPTED by 20-A.Smith (42-G.Alexander) at JAX 4. 20-A.Smith to IND 49 for 47 yards (44-D.Clark; 73-J.Thomas). [WPA -21.3% · EPA -7.20]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:24) — (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne to JAX 7 for 42 yards (31-D.Jones) [55-K.Morrison]. JAX-96-T.Knighton was injured during the play. His return is Probable. JAX-31- [WPA +17.0% · EPA +2.85]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 13:59) — (13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne to JAX 10 for 13 yards (31-D.Jones). FUMBLES (31-D.Jones), RECOVERED by JAX-42-G.Alexander at JAX 10. 42-G.Alexander to IND 47 f [WPA -15.5% · EPA -6.24]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 6:00) — (6:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 19-T.Underwood to IND 38 for 13 yards (34-D.Morgan). PENALTY on IND-27-J.Lacey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 38. [WPA +14.4% · EPA +2.61]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 23:43) — (8:43) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle intended for 81-B.Eldridge INTERCEPTED by 20-A.Smith (42-G.Alexander) at JAX 4. 20-A.Smith to IND 49 for 47 yards (44-D.Clark; 73-J.Thomas). [WPA -21.3% · EPA -7.20]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 13:59) — (13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne to JAX 10 for 13 yards (31-D.Jones). FUMBLES (31-D.Jones), RECOVERED by JAX-42-G.Alexander at JAX 10. 42-G.Alexander to IND 47 f [WPA -15.5% · EPA -6.24]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 48:39) — (3:39) 9-D.Garrard right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.7% · EPA +3.15]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 2:13) — (2:13) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 32-M.Jones-Drew for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.0% · EPA +3.08]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 47 dropbacks · 70.2% completion · +9.5% CPOE · +0.21 EPA/play · +9.74 total EPA
• D.Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 23 dropbacks · 73.9% completion · +12.3% CPOE · +0.43 EPA/play · +9.96 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Indianapolis Colts +0.21, Jacksonville Jaguars +0.23) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 9 drives, +16.71 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 9 drives, +17.18 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Jacksonville Jaguars leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Garrard (JAX) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 53:42 · JAX 2 · Score 6-0
   (8:42) 29-J.Addai left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 53:37 · JAX 2 · Score 7-0
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 48:39 · IND 25 · Score 7-6
   (3:39) 9-D.Garrard right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 48:30 · IND 2 · Score 7-7
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 43:44 · IND 1 · Score 7-13
   (13:44) 32-M.Jones-Drew right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 43:40 · IND 2 · Score 7-14
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 37:45 · JAX 7 · Score 13-14
   (7:45) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 44-D.Clark for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 37:41 · JAX 2 · Score 14-14
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 19:42 · IND 15 · Score 14-20
   (4:42) 9-D.Garrard pass short middle to 89-M.Lewis for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 19:37 · IND 2 · Score 14-21
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
11. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 7:39 · JAX 2 · Score 20-21
    (7:39) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 7:35 · JAX 2 · Score 21-21
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 2:13 · IND 8 · Score 21-27
    (2:13) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 32-M.Jones-Drew for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 2:09 · IND 2 · Score 21-28
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
15. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 0:52 · JAX 1 · Score 27-28
    (:52) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 17-A.Collie for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 0:48 · JAX 2 · Score 28-28
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee. PENALTY on JAX-22-D.Carey, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 0:05 · IND 41 · Score 28-31
    (:05) 10-J.Scobee 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.