Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2012 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2012 NFL season on 2012-12-30, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Houston Texans, pulling away with a 28–16 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Schaub (Houston Texans) paced the passing game, with +4.36 total EPA, and +1.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.79 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+23.5% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: 17-S.Graham kicks 66 yards from HOU 35 to IND -1. 36-D.Karim for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Luck · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +11.79 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +10.21 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.70 EPA/play
3. 3 K. Walter · Houston Texans · Receiving · +5.54 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.11 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Schaub · Houston Texans · Passing · +4.36 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Johnson · Houston Texans · Receiving · +2.87 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Foster · Houston Texans · Rushing · +2.48 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Posey · Houston Texans · Receiving · +2.42 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.21 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.52 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — C. Fleener (A. Luck pass) (Q1 52:55)
• Indianapolis Colts — V. Ballard (Q2 32:06)
• Houston Texans — A. Foster (Q3 24:31)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Karim (Q3 20:22)
• Indianapolis Colts — T. Hilton (A. Luck pass) (Q4 11:31)

Field goals

• Houston Texans — S. Graham (Q1 45:12)
• Houston Texans — S. Graham (Q2 40:27)
• Houston Texans — S. Graham (Q3 20:27)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–3. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the HOU 1 (Q1 52:55) — (7:55) (Run formation) 54-M.Harvey reported in as eligible. 12-A.Luck pass short left to 80-C.Fleener for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q1 52:51) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 32 (Q1 45:12) — (:12) 17-S.Graham 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-5-D.Jones..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–3. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 19 (Q2 40:27) — (10:27) 17-S.Graham 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-5-D.Jones.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the HOU 1 (Q2 32:06) — (2:06) (Run formation) 54-M.Harvey reported in as eligible. 33-V.Ballard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q2 32:00) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The third quarter: Houston Texans won the period 10–7. Houston Texans found the end zone from the IND 13 (Q3 24:31) — (9:31) (Run formation) 23-A.Foster left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 24:25) — 17-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-5-D.Jones.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 19 (Q3 20:27) — (5:27) 17-S.Graham 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-5-D.Jones.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the HOU 35 (Q3 20:22) — 17-S.Graham kicks 66 yards from HOU 35 to IND -1. 36-D.Karim for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q3 20:10) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the HOU 70 (Q4 11:31) — (11:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q4 11:22) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 20:22) — 17-S.Graham kicks 66 yards from HOU 35 to IND -1. 36-D.Karim for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +23.5% · EPA +6.03]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 11:31) — (11:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.8% · EPA +7.04]
• Houston Texans (Q2 34:19) — (4:19) (Run formation) 8-M.Schaub pass deep middle intended for 86-J.Casey INTERCEPTED by 23-V.Davis at IND 35. 23-V.Davis to HOU 39 for 26 yards (81-O.Daniels). [WPA -14.9% · EPA -4.39]
• Houston Texans (Q4 13:51) — (13:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Schaub sacked at IND 35 for -8 yards (67-L.Guy). [WPA -14.8% · EPA -2.05]
• Houston Texans (Q3 21:47) — (6:47) (Run formation) 23-A.Foster left end pushed ob at IND 22 for 39 yards (41-A.Bethea). [WPA +11.5% · EPA +2.90]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 11:31) — (11:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.8% · EPA +7.04]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 20:22) — 17-S.Graham kicks 66 yards from HOU 35 to IND -1. 36-D.Karim for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +23.5% · EPA +6.03]
• Houston Texans (Q2 34:19) — (4:19) (Run formation) 8-M.Schaub pass deep middle intended for 86-J.Casey INTERCEPTED by 23-V.Davis at IND 35. 23-V.Davis to HOU 39 for 26 yards (81-O.Daniels). [WPA -14.9% · EPA -4.39]
• Houston Texans (Q4 9:53) — (9:53) 8-M.Schaub pass deep left intended for 80-A.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 23-V.Davis at IND 0. Touchback. [WPA -4.1% · EPA -4.39]

Quarterback report card

M.Schaub led all passers in efficiency for Houston Texans, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Schaub (Houston Texans) · 42 dropbacks · 57.1% completion · +1.0% CPOE · +0.10 EPA/play · +4.36 total EPA
• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 33 dropbacks · 42.4% completion · -12.5% CPOE · +0.36 EPA/play · +11.79 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Indianapolis Colts held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.14 vs +0.03), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Houston Texans: 10 drives, +2.27 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, +11.71 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Luck (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 52:55 · HOU 1 · Score 0-6
   (7:55) (Run formation) 54-M.Harvey reported in as eligible. 12-A.Luck pass short left to 80-C.Fleener for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 52:51 · HOU 2 · Score 0-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
3. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q1 45:12 · IND 32 · Score 3-7
   (:12) 17-S.Graham 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-5-D.Jones.
4. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q2 40:27 · IND 19 · Score 6-7
   (10:27) 17-S.Graham 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-5-D.Jones.
5. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 32:06 · HOU 1 · Score 6-13
   (2:06) (Run formation) 54-M.Harvey reported in as eligible. 33-V.Ballard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 32:00 · HOU 2 · Score 6-14
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
7. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q3 24:31 · IND 13 · Score 12-14
   (9:31) (Run formation) 23-A.Foster left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q3 24:25 · IND 2 · Score 13-14
   17-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-5-D.Jones.
9. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q3 20:27 · IND 19 · Score 16-14
   (5:27) 17-S.Graham 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-5-D.Jones.
10. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 20:22 · HOU 35 · Score 16-20
    17-S.Graham kicks 66 yards from HOU 35 to IND -1. 36-D.Karim for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 20:10 · HOU 2 · Score 16-21
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
12. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 11:31 · HOU 70 · Score 16-27
    (11:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 11:22 · HOU 2 · Score 16-28
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.