Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 1 Recap

Game story

In Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-09-11, the Green Bay Packers took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 27–23 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with +7.69 total EPA, and -2.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.02 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-36.5% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (:23) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns to GB 15 for -1 yards (23-D.Randall).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +12.02 total EPA · 40 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Bortles · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +7.69 total EPA · 45 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Robinson · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +6.04 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Thomas · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +5.64 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.13 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Hurns · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.30 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.66 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Lewis · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.60 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.30 EPA/play
7. 7 R. Cobb · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +2.34 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +1.49 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Green Bay Packers — A. Rodgers (Q1 54:45)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — T. Yeldon (Q1 48:43)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Nelson (A. Rodgers pass) (Q2 33:14)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Thomas (B. Bortles pass) (Q2 31:14)
• Green Bay Packers — D. Adams (A. Rodgers pass) (Q2 30:20)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Myers (Q2 37:52)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q3 25:14)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Myers (Q3 21:19)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q4 12:04)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Myers (Q4 5:17)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the JAX 6 (Q1 54:45) — (9:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 54:36) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the GB 5 (Q1 48:43) — (3:43) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q1 48:40) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman..

The second quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 14–10. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the GB 8 (Q2 37:52) — (7:52) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the JAX 6 (Q2 33:14) — (3:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 33:05) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the GB 22 (Q2 31:14) — (1:14) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 80-J.Thomas for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q2 31:09) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the JAX 29 (Q2 30:20); Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 30:13) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the JAX 7 (Q3 25:14) — (10:14) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the GB 21 (Q3 21:19) — (6:19) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the JAX 2 (Q4 12:04) — (12:04) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the GB 32 (Q4 5:17) — (5:17) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 0:23) — (:23) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns to GB 15 for -1 yards (23-D.Randall). [WPA -36.5% · EPA -2.23]
• Green Bay Packers (Q2 30:20) — (:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [20-J.Ramsey]. Penalty on JAX-31-D.House, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. [WPA +18.4% · EPA +4.56]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 1:15) — (1:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 15-A.Robinson to GB 23 for 22 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix). FUMBLES (21-H.Clinton-Dix), and recovers at GB 23. 15-A.Robinson to GB 23 for no gain (21-H.Cli [WPA +18.2% · EPA +1.70]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 31:14) — (1:14) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 80-J.Thomas for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.9% · EPA +3.91]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 1:53) — (1:53) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle intended for 80-J.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 21-H.Clinton-Dix at GB 35. 21-H.Clinton-Dix to 50 for 15 yards. PENALTY on GB-42-M.Burnett, Defensive Holding, 5 y [WPA +14.1% · EPA +1.70]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 57:53) — (12:53) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 11-M.Lee INTERCEPTED by 48-J.Thomas (24-Q.Rollins) at JAX 41. 48-J.Thomas to JAX 32 for 9 yards (65-B.Linder). FUMBLES (65-B.Linder), recove [WPA -12.7% · EPA -4.58]
• Green Bay Packers (Q2 30:20) — (:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [20-J.Ramsey]. Penalty on JAX-31-D.House, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. [WPA +18.4% · EPA +4.56]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 31:14) — (1:14) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 80-J.Thomas for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.9% · EPA +3.91]
• Green Bay Packers (Q3 28:08) — (13:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to JAX 31 for 32 yards (37-J.Cyprien). [WPA +11.5% · EPA +3.59]

Quarterback report card

B.Bortles led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 45 dropbacks · 53.3% completion · -2.0% CPOE · +0.17 EPA/play · +7.69 total EPA
• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 40 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · +2.0% CPOE · +0.30 EPA/play · +12.02 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Green Bay Packers +0.10, Jacksonville Jaguars +0.07) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Green Bay Packers: 11 drives, +8.47 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 drives, +5.89 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Green Bay Packers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q1 54:45 · JAX 6 · Score 6-0
   (9:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q1 54:36 · JAX 15 · Score 7-0
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 48:43 · GB 5 · Score 7-6
   (3:43) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 48:40 · GB 15 · Score 7-7
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 37:52 · GB 8 · Score 7-10
   (7:52) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
6. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 33:14 · JAX 6 · Score 13-10
   (3:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 33:05 · JAX 15 · Score 14-10
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 31:14 · GB 22 · Score 14-16
   (1:14) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 80-J.Thomas for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 31:09 · GB 15 · Score 14-17
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
10. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 30:20 · JAX 29 · Score 20-17
    (:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [20-J.Ramsey]. Penalty on JAX-31-D.House, Defensive Pass Interference, decli
11. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 30:13 · JAX 15 · Score 21-17
    2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
12. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q3 25:14 · JAX 7 · Score 24-17
    (10:14) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q3 21:19 · GB 21 · Score 24-20
    (6:19) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
14. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q4 12:04 · JAX 2 · Score 27-20
    (12:04) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 5:17 · GB 32 · Score 27-23
    (5:17) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.